IFT - Infratil

[couta1]

Sure is taking a hammering, the chart makes the gradient of Mt Everest look easy in comparison. Would be a good time for IFT to spend the rest of that 50 million allocated for buying back shares to help support the price, well below NTA now and the selling appears irrational to me. Bargin hunters buying on others fear.

[mshierlaw]

Sure is taking a hammering, the chart makes the gradient of Mt Everest look easy in comparison. Would be a good time for IFT to spend the rest of that 50 million allocated for buying back shares to help support the price, well below NTA now and the selling appears irrational to me. Bargin hunters buying on others fear.

Appears to be tracking TPW price. TPW has still has not hit Rock's bottom. Waiting.

[Master98]

Sure is taking a hammering, the chart makes the gradient of Mt Everest look easy in comparison. Would be a good time for IFT to spend the rest of that 50 million allocated for buying back shares to help support the price, well below NTA now and the selling appears irrational to me. Bargin hunters buying on others fear.

Dear couta, what is the real NTA value of ift?, from NZX.COM is $4.986.

[Harrie]

I don't think that the TPW demerger and the slingshot bundling are the only headwinds behind IFT's SP falling out of bed. The elephant in the room is Geonets raising the prospect of a major earthquake risk to hit the lower north Island in the next few years. In 1863 a magnitude 8.0+raised what now is the Wellington airport. Another one of this magnitude could cause all sorts of problems not only for the airport but also the wellington transport system. Both of these assets are held by IFT. It may never happen but IMO I believe that it is being discounted by some degree in the SP.

[Baa_Baa]

Attachment 8509

I don't know about sell downs based on concerns about earthquakes, though maybe that is a factor. However, the SP decline began well before the recent shake up.

On a relatively conservative TA basis using ones trusty weekly chart, the first exit was the week ending Sept 16 when it crossed the 10/14 EMA's (weekly) and continued lower. This was also the breakdown of the 2-year rising trend line. This also co-incided shortly after with breakdowns through the long moving averages, 200 and 400 day equivalents. Understandably capital sensitive investors unloaded. From there it is the falling knife.

Recently the SP has plunged down to the rising 5.5 year trend line, and depending on whether one measures the high/low trend or the closing price trend, the SP is fragile. It has broken the high/low, but on a closing basis it has tested the trend line and is hovering on or around it now. A breakdown here should be a confirmed exit for even the most confident, however that said inevitably many will hold as IFT will continue making profit and paying dividends, to heck with the capital value.

From a TA perspective often price gaps are closed later on. The SP is in the gap from the Z Energy announcement breakout upwards. Support below here if the closing price trend line doesn't hold is firstly $2.60 then the breakout at $2.53 which is also the 50% (not a) FIB retrace from the 5-6 year lows. All the indicators are heavily sold down, but that doesn't mean the selling stops.

Nothing points to confidence in buying this decline. So far.

[Bjauck]

..

Nothing points to confidence in buying this decline. So far.

IFT is like an investment trust. They always seem to get oversold and trade at large discounts to NTA when markets become cautious. Seismic risk has to be reassessed in many companies and areas now.

[Harrie]

I'm not a great fan of TA. To me TA is just an analysis of FA in retrospect. IFT is being driven down on fundamentals which in themselves trigger TA points which can then have the effect of taking on its own life. What if IFT come out with an announcement to make a special dividend to shareholders or that they have sold the investment they have in the Wellington airport to the WCC at the point where the SP is $2.53? TA not much help.
There has to be a reason why there is such a discount to NTA. If the discount widens much further IFT would have to be a TO target (unless the NTA is overvalued or unrealistic)
Who would be prepared to buy the Wellington airport?

[couta1]

Dear couta, what is the real NTA value of ift?, from NZX.COM is $4.986.

Not sure how they get this figure but the real NTA value is around the $3.10 mark.

[Master98]

Not sure how they get this figure but the real NTA value is around the $3.10 mark.

cheers couta, sp really hammered sold $3.5 while ago,will looking to enter again.

[winner69]

If you read the company accounts you will see that NTA was $3.00 at half-year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Just bringing to top of page again

So NTA $3.00 at half year (september)