Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.
If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?
If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".
Hey black Peter, if pe is 800 how come they are paying a dividend of 3-4%? (And still have money to reinvest) Is it possible that the “earnings” part of the equation isn’t capturing their free cash flow. Something for you to think about….
Dec 20,SP
"As a value investor looking for balance sheet assets that deliver growth with income, it’s hard to look past this Company’s dynamic stable of infrastructure assets." https://www.wealthmorning.com/2020/1...be-worth-more/
Hey black Peter, if pe is 800 how come they are paying a dividend of 3-4%? (And still have money to reinvest) Is it possible that the “earnings” part of the equation isn’t capturing their free cash flow. Something for you to think about….
No need to be condescending - I know the game :
Free Cash Flow is a fine thing if your write offs are higher than the capital you loose. This is the game of the Gen tailers ... write a power plant off over 50 years but use it for hundred plus years - plenty of free cash flow ...
Question is just - while we know that this game works with hydroplants, do we really know how long wind generators and solar systems live ... and are we sure that they are currently still undervalued given the green bubble?
Maybe something for you to think about ? And be careful - so easy to mix up "groupthink" with the activity of "thinking" :
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Sounds like you are not worried about the green bubble deflating? So, what do you think would be a sensible P/E for Infratil? Current forward P/E (based on analyst forecasts for the next 3 years) is 800.
If you think that is too cheap - what about 1000 or 1500? - or am I setting my eyes still too low?
If I understand you correctly than you are saying "one can't have too many IFT".
Where did I hear that before?
I guess a 30 year track record of approx 20% return for shareholders, which has largely been delivered in a very consistent manner over that time should tell you the p/e analysis you're doing might not be giving you a good basis to analyse the future stock performance.
What we can see analyse is that a range of their segments / assets in the sum of the part broker valuations being included way below market bench marks.
We also see a long history of IFT divesting component parts at a time of their choosing - and running strong process to maximise outcomes.
What I believe is that they've never had a stronger portfolio set with better forward propsects than right now - and they've got in early to some really good thematics - that should promise very well for the next 5+ years. You stick to that p/e analysis if it's served you well. If that's your metric for analysing IFT - best of luck. If you thought about an EBITDA multiple approach - their proportional EBITDA is .5bn - i don't think the multiples are very high for a listed entity with strong tailwinds, in great segments and distributed risk profiles. But i guess the market has got it all wrong for 30 years - yeah right.
Green bubble - yep, climate change is all hot air.
Yes, agree they have a very strong portfolio now. As they have grown over the years they have had the funds to get into some seriously good growth areas (Canberra Data Centres probably being the best example). They are also realistic about getting rid of dogs where necessary. Very happy holder.
Originally Posted by peat
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? And be careful - so easy to mix up "groupthink" with the activity of "thinking" 
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