IFT - Infratil

[BlackPeter]

It's pretty easy to be a chairleader when the p.e ratio is currently only 11.

Admittedly - I didn't thought about leading chairs, but if that's what makes you tick ... ;

Never trust a PE unless you made it up yourself ... but I suppose you realise that Infratils earnings happen to be incredibly patchy. They buy stuff cheap and from time to time they sell stuff with huge profits before the respective bubble bursts (that's the good years - like e.g. Z-Energy) or with losses (that's the not so good years - like some European Airports). They are basically operating like a pirate ship. Identify opportunities and cease them before somebody else does - and try to make them to money before the market looses its interest. Risky business and sometimes very profitable, but not necessarily sustainable. Luckily for them they do it with other peoples money.

Averaging over the last 10 years they had 48 cents earnings per share - pushing the average PE somehow in the low 20íes. Market seems to factor in ongoing significant earnings growth.

Markets are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

[Ggcc]

Admittedly - I didn't thought about leading chairs, but if that's what makes you tick ... ;

Never trust a PE unless you made it up yourself ... but I suppose you realise that Infratils earnings happen to be incredibly patchy. They buy stuff cheap and from time to time they sell stuff with huge profits before the respective bubble bursts (that's the good years - like e.g. Z-Energy) or with losses (that's the not so good years - like some European Airports). They are basically operating like a pirate ship. Identify opportunities and cease them before somebody else does - and try to make them to money before the market looses its interest. Risky business and sometimes very profitable, but not necessarily sustainable. Luckily for them they do it with other peoples money.

Averaging over the last 10 years they had 48 cents earnings per share - pushing the average PE somehow in the low 20íes. Market seems to factor in ongoing significant earnings growth.

Markets are sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

Keep speaking negatively about the company it’s working so far.

We are not cheer leaders, we just understand this investment maybe a little bit better. I’m happy to hear the negative side of investments, but I’ve been hearing your negative rants/ opinions since $8ish. Post 2773 (Clearly your ego, about this share)

Just get on board at a price you feel comfortable and join in the ride.

[BlackPeter]

Keep speaking negatively about the company it’s working so far.

We are not cheer leaders, we just understand this investment maybe a little bit better. I’m happy to hear the negative side of investments, but I’ve been hearing your negative rants/ opinions since $8ish. Post 2773 (Clearly your ego, about this share)

Just get on board at a price you feel comfortable and join in the ride.

What can I say - when cheerleaders start getting personal and attack the poster instead of arguing their case, this must be the time to run - well, for investors, this is;

But look - this is a forum of ideas and different view points. Just wondering ... given that you seem to be so convinced of and settled in your "only can go up" view - why would you bother to suppress a discussion about the risks?

Maybe you are not so sure after all ?

[Ggcc]

What can I say - when cheerleaders start getting personal and attack the poster instead of arguing their case, this must be the time to run - well, for investors, this is;

But look - this is a forum of ideas and different view points. Just wondering ... given that you seem to be so convinced of and settled in your "only can go up" view - why would you bother to suppress a discussion about the risks?

Maybe you are not so sure after all ?

No I am quite sure for now, of course my opinion can change but currently it has not. Plus I am not attacking the poster I am trying to fix the broken record. I have been holding for over 10 years. I did have to sell some to buy a house in 2021. Plus for the record I truly do admire your posts on various different companies but on IFT you have jaded glasses on.

If you go to these events you get to speak to management themselves and you can ask the hard questions if you like. For one CDC pick their customers. Would that indicate that the demand outstrips the supply if you can pick your customers.........? I know it to be so and management said demand is there so they are building more.

https://infratil.com/news/infratil-2...entres-update/


As for Longroad again there is huge demand for renewable green energy in certain states in US like California who announced only wanting green renewable energy and that other states will eventually follow suit over time with incentives from local government

https://www.longroadenergy.com/longr...-and-infratil/

All their other investments are doing well so far which you will only find out in great detail talking to management after the presentation. Just go to one in your town and ask the pertinent questions you need answered, they don't ask for ID, well they didn't in Napier.

[Toddy]

BlackPeter
Using your methodology and comparing apples with apples. What's the pe ratio for FPH, MFT, ATM based on 10 year average earnings?

[BlackPeter]

BlackPeter
Using your methodology and comparing apples with apples. What's the pe ratio for FPH, MFT, ATM based on 10 year average earnings?

Good question. I assume you want me to compare that with IFT?

So, lets take backward PE and backwards earnings CAGR ... this way we don't need to rely on analyst forecasts.

And as well - these numbers don't really describe the future, unless we assume that the next 10 years will be like the last 10 .... and, while FPH, MFT and as well IFT are no doubt quality companies (which does not mean that they are currently cheap or good value), not sure I'd put ATM into the same category.

But anyway - here we go:

FPH: PE (10yr backwards) 57.2 Earnings CAGR 12.2
MFT: PE (10yr backwards) 39.4 Earnings CAGR 20.4
ATM: PE (10yr backwards) 31.5 Earnings CAGR 41.3
IFT: PE (10yr backwards) 20.3 Earnings CAGR 23.2

Taking these numbers at face value does IFT look really good, doesn't it?

What the numbers don't tell you is that only MFT and FPH managed to continuously and sustainably grow their EPS (MFT from from 66 cents in 2013 to $ 4.24 in 2023, FPH from 14 cents in 2013 to 43 cents in 2023). They are the members of this group which I would assess based on these two parameters (obviously not just), and FPH clearly looks based on them currently dear. MFT on the other hand I hold quite a lot.

ATM has a great CAGR based on starting the "competition" in 2013 with only 1 cent EPS (which makes it easy to get huge growth rates) ... and hey, clearly their sales channel disaster changed their future earnings potential.

... and IFT's EPS year on year jumps around like a rabid dog ... sure - some years they have amazing earnings (when they just sold out one of their speculation objects), and in other years their EPS is close to zero. Monte Carlo?

Unless you are sure that the board keeps being really lucky with selling their assets, I would not buy them based on these numbers.

So - yes, good question, but for two out of the four competitors (and IFT is one of them) you clearly need to look at other parameters as well.

[Ggcc]

Good question. I assume you want me to compare that with IFT?

So, lets take backward PE and backwards earnings CAGR ... this way we don't need to rely on analyst forecasts.

And as well - these numbers don't really describe the future, unless we assume that the next 10 years will be like the last 10 .... and, while FPH, MFT and as well IFT are no doubt quality companies (which does not mean that they are currently cheap or good value), not sure I'd put ATM into the same category.

But anyway - here we go:

FPH: PE (10yr backwards) 57.2 Earnings CAGR 12.2
MFT: PE (10yr backwards) 39.4 Earnings CAGR 20.4
ATM: PE (10yr backwards) 31.5 Earnings CAGR 41.3
IFT: PE (10yr backwards) 20.3 Earnings CAGR 23.2

Taking these numbers at face value does IFT look really good, doesn't it?

What the numbers don't tell you is that only MFT and FPH managed to continuously and sustainably grow their EPS (MFT from from 66 cents in 2013 to $ 4.24 in 2023, FPH from 14 cents in 2013 to 43 cents in 2023). They are the members of this group which I would assess based on these two parameters (obviously not just), and FPH clearly looks based on them currently dear. MFT on the other hand I hold quite a lot.

ATM has a great CAGR based on starting the "competition" in 2013 with only 1 cent EPS (which makes it easy to get huge growth rates) ... and hey, clearly their sales channel disaster changed their future earnings potential.

... and IFT's EPS year on year jumps around like a rabid dog ... sure - some years they have amazing earnings (when they just sold out one of their speculation objects), and in other years their EPS is close to zero. Monte Carlo?

Unless you are sure that the board keeps being really lucky with selling their assets, I would not buy them based on these numbers.

So - yes, good question, but for two out of the four competitors (and IFT is one of them) you clearly need to look at other parameters as well.

But you forgot to mention. You always make more money selling businesses than running businesses. But I assume you already know that being as you have been self employed....

Every business I have ever bought I sold for more than I bought it. That is one of the reasons why I like IFT. They know the formula

[BlackPeter]

But you forgot to mention. You always make more money selling businesses than running businesses. But I assume you already know that being as you have been self employed....

Every business I have ever bought I sold for more than I bought it. That is one of the reasons why I like IFT. They know the formula

I suppose "always" is clearly wrong. I do know people who lost money selling businesses, and actually, IFT did as well.

But sure - I know where you are coming from and agree that so far it looks they did more right than wrong in this business of buying and selling businesses.

Never said either that IFT is a bad fund (and that's all it is - a fund) ... though in my books currently too dear. This whole discussion just started because somebody (I could check who, but its not important) allowed their excitement about some (in the schema of things quite small) renewable energy holdings to carry them away ... and yes, this is just bubble territory stuff.

But that's ok - we do need investors like that - otherwise the market would not work as well as it does (e.g. for momentum traders). No, not me, but I know some who make a good living off other peoples exuberance and fear.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412638

A great option and they were so positive about One/Vodafone during their presentation in Napier. I'll be buying a few more myself I feel at a nice little discount.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sweet holy Moses