IFT - Infratil

[living2]

This is still my prediction as a rock bottom minimum prices for head shares and warrants>Anyone else like to predict?
What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up? ie 2009
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago

[gisborne_gold]

How many are lots? Do you have some to share?

OK I'll make a guess. IFT $8.50 at the time the warrants expire.

[Toddy]

Well done living2.
I sold down 25,000 a couple of weeks ago to help balance out my portfolio. However I still have a significant holding.

There seems to be a raid going on (block building) by some insto.
I watch IFT very closely and have not seen this kind of activity for a number of years. I'm quietly confident that IFT is now on the radar of some major players.

As for future price, I think that the the head shares will head north at the usual 20% pa until warrant exercise date. That makes the potential warrant price too scary to mention.

Even the wet summer and full hydro lakes in NZ will not hold back the consolidation of IFT. The company has too many other ace cards yet to play.

[living2]

I agree Toddy.A lot of aces in their hand>I consider IFT to have over taken BIL,then GPGin the past now Fischer fund may be ahead of IFT

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by gisborne_gold

OK I took a proper look at what Black-Scholes might give me as a value for IFTWB.

If I adjust for the IFT dividend yield and the dilutionary effect of the warrants I calculate a valuation for IFTWB in the $2.12 to $2.20, which is below current buy bids which sit at $2.34. Is IFTWB in fact over-priced, contrary to what we've been saying?

Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).

DISC: Have held heads and warrants for some length of time, and am seriously debating whether I should switch entirely from the heads to the "tails".

[rmbbrave]

NZ's Infratil buys 51 pc of Perth Energy
NZPA | Monday, 29 January 2007

Wellington-based Infratil said today it had bought a stake in one of three electricity retailers in Western Australia for $A7 million ($NZ7.86 million).

Its Infratil Energy Australia (IEA) unit is buying 51 per cent of Perth Energy Pty through the issue of new shares.

Largely owned by a handful of management and executives, Perth Energy was established in 1999 and has been trading profitably since 2005.

IEA chief executive Darryl Flukes, who will take up the position of chairman of Perth Energy, said the investment fitted perfectly with Infratil's growth aspirations in Australia.

Mr Flukes said the Western Australian energy market had just been deregulated, but currently lacked contestable residential customers.

"It's very very early days compared to eastern states and New Zealand in terms of contestable customers."

One of the attractions of Perth Energy, which has 50 large customers, was a well-advanced project for a 90 megawatt gas plant.

"Certainly we're going to be well-placed with Perth Energy to be able to take on a larger customer base," he said.

"I can't say we've set a target for customer numbers, just as many as we can get while they remain profitable."

Perth Energy managing director Ky Cao said his company was pleased to have found a strong financial backer with experience in both retail and generation.

Perth Energy had no plans to market or install renewable generation, but most of its supply comes from the renewable source of landfill gas.

Infratil Australia was on the lookout for affordable generation assets to complement its growing eastern retail base, Mr Flukes said.

"We've found that the prices at which existing plant has been changing hands we haven't been able to make that work. We're just finding it more effective to build rather than purchase at the moment."

Infratil had not identified any investment opportunities outside the energy industry.

Shares in Infratil, which recently upped its stake in energy retailer and generator TrustPower to 50.5 per cent, were down 2c at $5.61.

[Rif-Raf]

A small investment, but good news nonetheless as their track record in creating huge value out of electricity assets is impressive.

[living2]

Anyone else want to share price 2009???
$10.00 maybe????

[Footsie]

i've held the warrants since 2005
mangaged to buy at 75c

i sold on friday.....

nice gains and i feel the nz market will run out of puff sometime soon....
esp the large caps which have had 30%+ gains in 6 months

i'd buy back in if IFT went sub $5

[Toddy]

1.4 mil shares traded at $5.95 early this afternoon. Whoever is buying is obviously very serious about building a useful position.