IFT - Infratil

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy Ifratil would have to be below 80cents per share for me to consider buying shares while they still own bus companies. All the financial models in will not change the fundamental facts that Bus companies are barely viable. Just look at the broken down busses that hit the traffic news in Auckland and that is only the tip of the iceberg suggest that maintenance is being skimped. Talking to a driver of one of the bigger Aucland bus companies that mechanics are pirating other busses for spare parts.

[CJ]

Just look at the broken down busses that hit the traffic news in Auckland and that is only the tip of the iceberg suggest that maintenance is being skimped. Talking to a driver of one of the bigger Aucland bus companies that mechanics are pirating other busses for spare parts.

It is well known that the stagecoach buses were run down under the management of Stagecoach (on the basis they were planning on exiting the business). NZ bus, under IFT, is undergoing a major upgrade of the buses. This wa factored into the purchase price.

[Toddy]

Surely the best investment for IFT would be to buy their own shares back at the current levels. The numbers coming out of Wellington are amazing. I'm sure that we will see the same on the bus front in the next report.


Wellington Airport Monthly Overview - February 2008

February continued to show that the public is taking advantage of the
enhanced domestic market competition with domestic passengers 21% above the
previous year. While Pacific Blue has been the catalyst for the increase the
competitive response from the established airlines is also generating
significant passenger growth. Available domestic capacity increased by 28%
from the previous year. Average aircraft loadings reduced by 4.5% from the
previous February however the market average of 72.5% remains strong. Year to
date, domestic passengers are now 7.4% above the previous year following the
substantial growth in recent months.

The capacity constraints in the international market were not alleviated in
February. Growth in international passenger numbers for February was 6.8%
above the previous year with seat capacity marginally increased by 3% (a leap
year benefit!). The average airline load factor continued to exceed 80%. Our
message remains unchanged in that until more capacity is offered many
Wellingtonians will be forced to travel through Auckland or Christchurch to
cross the Tasman, or may not travel at all. Year to date growth in
international passengers now stands at 4.5%, with seats having fallen by
3.3%.

WIAL announced details of "The Rock" design for the international terminal
expansion with construction to commence in the very near future. The design
has created a lot of comment, both supportive and not, and we are pleased
that the public has been motivated to form opinions and express their views.
Comments and enquiries have been received from people in a number of other
countries.

WIAL's construction programme continued during February. A further new
aircraft gate is shortly to be brought on line and two existing air bridges
will also be replaced in March/April. Work remains in progress to review the
use of Wellington's apron facilities to ensure short term demands can be met.
With all of the airlines making public comment about further expansion of
domestic services, the development programme must continue, to ensure this
growth can be accommodated.

Works continue on WIAL's North runway end safety enhancement to meet
increased international safety requirements. The works will be completed by
mid 2008.

Infratil Airports Europe Monthly Overview - February 2008



Glasgow Prestwick Airport

Glasgow Prestwick handled 165,977 passengers in February, up 12% on February
2007 and a 14% improvement on January's performance.

The year-to-date passenger total of 2,234,488 shows a marginal improvement on
the equivalent period for the prior year.
Polish services continue to perform well, particularly Ryanair's Wroclaw and
Wizz Air's Katowice. Wizz also began operating flights to Poznan at the
beginning of the month and the early signs for this route are encouraging.
Ryanair's daily services to Belfast and Cork are the main drivers behind the
year-on-year increase.
The airport handled 2,429 tonnes of freight during the month, up 6% on
February 2007 and a 35% improvement on January's performance. Atlas Polar,
Air France and Panalpina all recorded year-on-year increases.

Year to date freight volume of 28,476 tonnes is 4% ahead of the equivalent
period for last year, with Cargolux, Atlas Polar, Panalpina and British
Airways World Cargo all showing improved performances for FY08.

A new freight operator, Cargoitalia, is due to commence services in March
2008 with Boeing 747 operations which will see freight for the oil industry
flown in from Houston and trucked to Aberdeen.

Glasgow Prestwick became one of the first organisations in Scotland to pick
up a Healthy Working Lives Award award for its efforts to boost health and
wellbeing in the workplace.
The airport is among the first 32 organisations to achieve the award, which
was devised by the Scottish Centre for Healthy Working Lives to encourage
employers to promote a healthier workforce.

Kent International Airport

Kent International handled 3,966 tonnes of freight in February, up 64% on
February 2007.

All scheduled carriers improved their prior year and year-to-date freight
volumes during February.

The airport's total year-to-date freight volume, at 29,022 tonnes, is
currently 24% ahead of the equivalent period for the prior year.

Luebeck Airport

Luebeck Airport handled 30,247 passengers in February, a marginal improvement
on January's total but down 25% on February last year.

The year-to-date passenger total of 525,778 is down 15% on the equivalent
period last year.

The passenger figures reflect a 25% reduction in overall capacity against
February 2007. This reduction is mainly down to the reduction of services to
London, and the withdrawal of services to Dublin and M****illes.

A planning application to permit further development of the runway, apron and
terminal facilities has been submitted, and is supported by environmental
groups.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy think ouside the square do you buy a half million dollar asset that will work effiently 4 hours per day five days a week This is A bus. 2hours in the weekday morning & 2 hours in the weekday afternoon that is working the rest of the time it is usually parked up.

[Toddy]

Toddy think ouside the square do you buy a half million dollar asset that will work effiently 4 hours per day five days a week This is A bus. 2hours in the weekday morning & 2 hours in the weekday afternoon that is working the rest of the time it is usually parked up.

Just aswell I say. Pumping out carbon emmissions 24/7 is just not a viable long term model.

[winner69]

Toddy - always looking at getting into some decent infrastructure stock and your ongoing passionate relationship with IFT convinced me just under a year ago that IFT was that stock ......... but the comments from the guys from Tower keep haunting me ... 'IFT is way overvalued and we remain underweight'

So to date I am not a IFT shareholder (will be through IFTWC)

When do you think the guys from Tower will be proved wrong ... and IFT will start to look more promising on the chart.

One thing though those IFTWC are getting cheaper and cheaper by the week .... even thought the 412 looks a long way off but then so is 2012

Thoughts

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toddy well would you spend half A million dollars on an asset that was going to operate 20 hours in a week even if it did save carbon emissions. I might spend half a million on a house that mostly you life in 70 hours a week but depreciation is a lot less maintenace about the same but finance to purchase is cheaper.

[Zaphod]

Toddy well would you spend half A million dollars on an asset that was going to operate 20 hours in a week even if it did save carbon emissions. I might spend half a million on a house that mostly you life in 70 hours a week but depreciation is a lot less maintenace about the same but finance to purchase is cheaper.

Well, it's actually closer to $350K less the LTNZ capex funding component, which realistically leaves the company funding somewhere in the vicinity of $150-$250K dependant upon the agreed subsidy level.

Additionally there is patronage-based funding which is usually metered out by the regional councils. Typically these funds come 50-50 from a mix ratepayers and LTNZ with (again) the actual funding levels dependent upon the LTNZ's beliefs on the benefit of the service.

But what you have said is very true; they are a very expensive asset, that have traditionally provided a very slim return.

I believe Infratil are banking on relaxation of regulation, increased funding through fuel taxes and a boost from central government as part of their "green" initiatives in order to make the operation more profitable.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Zaphod As the capital cost of a Railways bus was well over 300k 20 years ago I sugest the 350k you mention must have a subsidy in it allready. What is really needed is very clear figures. As for ARTA it is simply pouring money down the drain as it is not puting the necessary infrastucture in for electricfication and levelcrossing upgrades in at the same time as they do the double tracking.

[Zaphod]

Zaphod As the capital cost of a Railways bus was well over 300k 20 years ago I sugest the 350k you mention must have a subsidy in it already. What is really needed is very clear figures.

$300K twenty years ago was quite a large sum of money relative to current times.

Between 1986 and 1989 Auckland, New Plymouth and Christchurch city councils placed orders for MAN SL-202's from (then) Coachwork International which cost them between $240K and $280K (dependent upon the year of delivery) per unit.

More recently, the latest MAN 12.223's and Volvo B7R's in B43D config without A/C from Designline and Kiwi respectively have been selling for approximately $350K.

The costs are rising however as China's bustling economy scoops up the worlds natural resources.

Remember though, the that budgeted lifetime of these vehciles is normally around 25 years; that works out to (after central government subsidies) around $10K PA.

As for ARTA it is simply pouring money down the drain as it is not putting the necessary infrastructure in for electrification and level crossing upgrades in at the same time as they do the double tracking.

I just don't think they have had the money to do it. However, today’s announcement of a 5 cent per litre fuel tax ,will surely help those plans along quite nicely. How much it will benefit Infratil is yet to be determined.

P.S. Happy to discuss the costs via PM. No point in filling up the IFT thread with arguments over bus costs (unless other people are interested)