IFT - Infratil

[kiora]

http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=218334

Looks like the focus is still in Australia and on renewable energy. They're hinting at some sort of start up.

Bearing in mind too, Trustpower's proposed split and that they've already put out the need for "large amounts of capital" to grow the wind/ solar half - the unimaginatively monikered "Newco." Some partnership deal in that regard wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Yes HP,greenfield wind power development may be more value creative than buying Pacific Hydro at OTT valuation.I thought infratil where suggesting it was worth $2b. It looks the great wash up of cheap Chinese money again.

[macduffy]

Infratil's December up-date makes interesting holiday reading for IFT shareholders - and for other electricity gentailer investors.

http://www.infratil.com/assets/Uploa...&utm_term=here

[BlackPeter]

Infratil's December up-date makes interesting holiday reading for IFT shareholders - and for other electricity gentailer investors.

http://www.infratil.com/assets/Uploa...&utm_term=here

Interesting reading ... and good points related to the expected power price development and the impact of (and economics) of solar cells (not economical with grip connection) as well as electrical cars (limited impact on overall NZ power consumption).

Thanks for posting this link.

[h2so4]

Very timely. Thanks macduffy.

[horus1]

I was going to reinvest in IFT but after reading the newsletter changed. Many of the facts are incorrect and solar is making big inroads to energy supply both overseas and in NZ. Those that are in the industry do not see changes coming usually and IFT are in that position. The costs of solar are overstated by about 50% as are the need for wires. Rapid change is occurring in the energy industries and it is a high risk industry.

[BlackPeter]

I was going to reinvest in IFT but after reading the newsletter changed. Many of the facts are incorrect and solar is making big inroads to energy supply both overseas and in NZ. Those that are in the industry do not see changes coming usually and IFT are in that position. The costs of solar are overstated by about 50% as are the need for wires. Rapid change is occurring in the energy industries and it is a high risk industry.

Hi horus, you are quick to discount professional and fact based reports (if they disagree with your believe in the descent of our power generators), but I haven't yet seen any data from your side supporting your believe.

Based on the data I have seen (most recent http://www.epecentre.ac.nz/research/...Uptake-r12.pdf and / or https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles...ied-pv-systems) are grid connected solar systems for most user profiles plain uneconomical (i.e. negative NPV). It is just not possible to beat with decentralised solar systems the typical generation cost of 5 to 10 cents per kWh from hydro, geothermal or wind.

Sure - consumers pay more than the above mentioned cost per kWh, given that they need to pay as well for grid construction and maintenance. However - as long as they still need power from the grid to run their heaters on a cold winter day (or - shudder - night), or to run their lights during the night, or even the washing machine on a cloudy day - they still need to pay for the grid connection - one way or another.

As well - even if some households decouple from the grid ... this just means that the country and the environment need to pay for these freeloaders instead. The batteries they would need to use instead create lots of environmental problems (check e.g.: http://www.theguardian.com/vital-sig...musk-powerwall) - and they screw up the business case (for individual, environment as well as society).

I don't see decentral solar cells as a predominant power supply of the future (unless there is no gird available), and whatever systems are rolled out, their production is unlikely to even cover the additional energy requirements through (e.g.) electrical vehicles (which by the way generate the same environmental problems as house based battery banks).

Just wondering - are there any data supporting your believe in the ascent of decentral solar systems coupled with the descent of our traditional power generators? If yes, do you want to share them with us, or do we need to take your word at face value?

Do you have an interest in the sale of decentral solar systems?

[horus1]

I do not have an interest in sales of solar. The NZ grid is significantly overbuilt and should have major write offs in capital value, : the NZ consumer has been overcharged for a number of years by energy Cos which means that the opportunity for solar is there and this will be made worse by the proposed changes in transmission charges. Many consumers will leave the networks and not require a centralised service. In NZ you are getting a narrow view of what is happening from the generators and the Govt.
Have a look at what is happening in Germany ,and Europe as well as Au and the states.I have been very reluctant to invest in the energy sector in NZ and so far have been correct. Go for places where there is an increasing marketpotential and the firm has good distribution channels.

[BlackPeter]

I was going to reinvest in IFT but after reading the newsletter changed. Many of the facts are incorrect and solar is making big inroads to energy supply both overseas and in NZ. Those that are in the industry do not see changes coming usually and IFT are in that position. The costs of solar are overstated by about 50% as are the need for wires. Rapid change is occurring in the energy industries and it is a high risk industry.

Solar making quick inroads in NZ and abroad? Really? Have a look at this government report: http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-service...aland-2015.pdf

Total (net, i.e. without line losses) NZ energy consumption in 2014 was 42.231 GWh. Off that produced by solar: 16 GWh, which is 0.037% of total.
Huge inroads? Yeah - right!

[BlackPeter]

I do not have an interest in sales of solar. The NZ grid is significantly overbuilt and should have major write offs in capital value, : the NZ consumer has been overcharged for a number of years by energy Cos which means that the opportunity for solar is there and this will be made worse by the proposed changes in transmission charges. Many consumers will leave the networks and not require a centralised service. In NZ you are getting a narrow view of what is happening from the generators and the Govt.
Have a look at what is happening in Germany ,and Europe as well as Au and the states.I have been very reluctant to invest in the energy sector in NZ and so far have been correct. Go for places where there is an increasing marketpotential and the firm has good distribution channels.

Hmm ... interesting statements. Lets see:

NZ grid significantly overbuilt? Well, lets agree that it could have been better planned and optimised. Some parts are overbuild (400kV transmission line to Northland), others are well under-dimensioned. Remember the huge Auckland blackout? Redundancy seems to be close to Zero ... and from personal experience - we do live in a township in Canterbury - and power outages are a quite common experience: Wind, snow, earthquakes - whatever nature can throw at us - it often makes the lights go off (mostly for hours, sometimes for days). Is this how you recognise an overbuild network?

Just help me here, horus - who created this mess? Feels like lack of leadership ...

But back to solar panels. You referred to whats happening in Germany. Yes, lots of solar panels and (due to that) a very high power price for everybody. Germany produces 5.6 % of its electricity (**) with solar (2014 numbers) - and the German consumer pays in average for one kWh of power 29c (Euro), roughly 50c NZ(*).

Don't forget that power infrastructure (per unit used) is much cheaper in a densely populated country like Germany, so solar makes all the difference. I am sure they can't wait for another doubling of their solar generation (and power price).

I remember the times when idiotic politicians in Germany guaranteed everybody installing solar panels on their home to pay them roughly 1 NZ$ equivalent per kWh of solar. Everybody had to pay for this insanity. So yes, it is possible to make solar economical - just double or triple the average power price we pay here in NZ, kill the economy (I know, the German economy could sort of take it, but can ours as well?) and transfer the money to a small minority of otherwise uneconomical solar power generators.

Is this really the path you foresee for NZ as well? I thought that we might be able to learn from the German experiment.

references (I hope your German is up to it):
(*) http://www.strompreise.de/strompreis-kwh/
(**) http://www.strom-magazin.de/info/str...n-deutschland/

[Bjauck]

... I remember the times when idiotic politicians in Germany guaranteed everybody installing solar panels on their home to pay them roughly 1 NZ$ equivalent per kWh of solar.

Good points from Zwarte Piet. Although some consider NZ to be a "green" country, I think Germany, especially the old Western part, actually has a greener attitude and is more prepared to pay the costs of a greener (or seemingly greener) economy. The appartment blocks, and denser residential neighbourhoods in general, in German towns would make infrastructure cheaper per dwelling - just look at the trouble ComCom got into when using international benchmarks for CNU's telecom costs.