IFT - Infratil

[boysy]

is there any particular reason for share price and warrent price falls recently ?

[Rif-Raf]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

is there any particular reason for share price and warrent price falls recently ?

Warrants are always going to move in the general direction of the heads. If s/t is anything to go by, looks like some observers have considered the C warrants got a bit ahead of themselves so may explain that pullback in that particular security.
As to the heads, no big movements there, price drifted back about 10c oiver the last week which is nothing startling. Bit of interest in airport sector comng off the boil after the recent excitement with AIA and MAQ divestments in europe. Terrorist focus in UK airport sector. Other than that not a lot of news which is often the cause of drifting price for any share.

[Toddy]

The current SP drift in an interesting one. Maybe a few profit takers after the recent run of gains.

This is how I see the current position of IFT.

NZ buses. Making good progress, new buses for Wellington, more bums on seats as the oil price continues to climb, and making the right noises with local government in Auckland.

Airports. Wellington looks after itself and grows year after year, the retail side is very exciting. International, the brand continues to build and the underlying asset value is there for everyone to see. Cashflow positive which is the main thing.

Trustpower. Spot electricity prices have been lower than last year. I'm not too sure how this will translate into the bottom line as we can only guess the extent of their forward contracts. There is new generation capacity coming on stream and new projects in the pipeline. In theory the TPW SP already has these built into todays price.

Energy Developments. Now that all of their projects are back under control we have seen a good run in the ENE SP over recent weeks. It looks like the market loves the ENE story again.

Infratil Energy Australia. The annual report talks about the forward contract price locked in at A$40 per MWh. This should directly translate into super profits given the entent of the Victorian dry summer.

Debt is locked in for the medium to long term and is at a reasonable level, the high kiwi dollar does not effect daily operations and with the introduction CO2 emissions legislation coming up, the outlook for IFT is 'business as usual' translatng into the goal of 20% PA after tax return for its shareholders.

I will be able to attend my first IFT agm on August 6. Based on previous AGM's it will be relatively low profile.

[Phaedrus]

Boysy, This post is an attempt to put your concern over IFT's current "weakness" into perspective.

You can see from the chart that IFT is in a steady longterm uptrend. This uptrend is so steady that it would be a waste of time trying to trade its secondary trends. In other words, this is a stock to buy and hold longterm, for as long as the uptrend continues. Now, IFT has been rising at around 27%pa for the last few years so your system should be such that it would not have triggered a Sell signal over this period. IFT is a low volatility stock and you certainly don't want to be flicked out of it by a premature Sell signal triggered by an overly sensitive indicator. You need to give the stock room to breath. How much room? Well, if you are using a simple percentage based trailing stop, it would need to be set at 15%. This is the minimum level required to have kept you in IFT for the last 5 years or so. So long as price action is above this, it is business as usual.

In short, you are expressing concern over a completely normal, very routine retracement of only about 9%. I assume that you are a longterm investor in IFT. As such, you can't be worrying over every little flicker of the shareprice and anxiously enquiring as to possible reasons for such movement. So long as price action is above the 15% trailing stop as plotted here, worry not.

[Toddy]

Phaedrus

I agree, and also follow charting. However, IFT has been hit harder than other stocks over the last six or so trading sessions. I have noted the slide has been on limited volumes, hence the profit takers comment. I am the kind of person though that always has to ask the question 'why'.

[boysy]

cheers thanks for that was just wondering why infratil in particular has taken a bit of a pounding recently

[Caesius]

I've just completed my expert analysis on the email update.

Comparing:
Year to date international passenger growth 8% with seats down 3%

with:
Year to date domestic passenger growth -0.7% with seats down 5%

obviously says something about the health of the domestic market, so do Infratil;

"stronger growth [in the domestic market] is unlikely to be seen unless there is a significant change to the make-up of the domestic airline market"

Which begs two questions:
1) What are the significant changes? A new competitor?
2) How significantly will Infratil be affected if there is no change? I.E. how much do they *depend* on domestic traffic and what will happen if the trend continues?

[KJ]

I think that Wellington airport represents about 3-4% of total IFT assets.Not too significant in the scheme of things.

[Toddy]

Wellington airport has been frustrating for IFT. It has done well to help IFT to get to were it is today, and still provides good cashflows. However, I don't see it playing a major part in the future growth plans of IFT. They have moved on to larger growth assets.

[Sideshow Bob]

Is Whenuapai all over? If Dubai Aerospace get their hands on AIA, then it might help them get it off the ground....