TRUST POWER

[JohnnyTheHorse]

From a traders perspective looks pretty ripe for a bounce from here. Daily RSI in oversold and sitting in area of previous major support.

[Davexl]

From a traders perspective looks pretty ripe for a bounce from here. Daily RSI in oversold and sitting in area of previous major support.

I think you're right, but I thought it was oversold at the $8 level (previous support), then it dropped further...Would be nice to see a volume trade at this level to kick the rebound off...

[Ferg]

The exact contract price is confidential, but management implied it will be a little above NZD 100 per megawatt hour.

Davexl
I'm curious where you get that figure from? I'm trying to work some projections on what is left of TPW. A metric tonne of COGS, overhead & IFRS gets ripped out of the financials and whilst the remaining C&I retail business should be profitable, I'm guessing it will be high volume / low margin. It looks like they retain 6% of the retail customers but 27% of the top line retail electricity revenues.
Cheers
Ferg

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I think you're right, but I thought it was oversold at the $8 level (previous support), then it dropped further...Would be nice to see a volume trade at this level to kick the rebound off...

Looking good with strong volume traded yesterday (same as previous large down day). Zero follow through on the bear break of previous support. Depth on this stock can be a bit cat and mouse... but there's a hidden buyer at 760. Targeting a bounce back to the 790's.

[kiora]

Why its better to be a electricity generator than a electricity retailer?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...y+24+June+2021

[BlackPeter]

Why its better to be a electricity generator than a electricity retailer?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...y+24+June+2021

Hmm - from above article:

"Scarcity of gas supply is a contributing factor"

You sort of wonder whether the glorious decision of our Labour government to stop any gas exploration on NZ soil has anything to do with the current electricity shortages?

We probably just got what we asked for.

[peat]

You sort of wonder whether the glorious decision of our Labour government to stop any gas exploration on NZ soil has anything to do with the current electricity shortages?

We probably just got what we asked for.

I've had this argument on Twitter ... to me it seems a bit disingenuous to claim that the decision is too fresh to affect current actual gas outputs. But an industry knows when its not wanted and investment is going to slow down dramatically after such a policy is put in place. Some of that investment goes into existing fields and maintaining their outputs. Though, once again the time frame between the govt decision and the decline in gas output is a bit tight to suggest it is a direct cause. But it sure aint gonna help.

coal is much better ;+)

[Davexl]

Originally Posted by Davexl
"The exact contract price is confidential, but management implied it will be a little above NZD 100 per megawatt hour."

Davexl
I'm curious where you get that figure from? I'm trying to work some projections on what is left of TPW. A metric tonne of COGS, overhead & IFRS gets ripped out of the financials and whilst the remaining C&I retail business should be profitable, I'm guessing it will be high volume / low margin. It looks like they retain 6% of the retail customers but 27% of the top line retail electricity revenues.
Cheers
Ferg

Figure came directly from the Morningstar analysis "Latest recommendation report" icon displayed in my Watchlist display on ASB Securities login.

[Davexl]

- from above article:

"Scarcity of gas supply is a contributing factor"

You sort of wonder whether the glorious decision of our Labour government to stop any gas exploration on NZ soil has anything to do with the current electricity shortages?
We probably just got what we asked for.

Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse
"I wonder whether the current issues with Pohokura / NZ gas supply will help boost the price they get for it. Gas prices have been quite elevated."


Would love to get an *update* on precisely what the issues with Pohokura are?
We know about Kupe's compression projects (& timing) to resolve gas supply, but nothing much about Pohokura's situation?

It would help resolve a lot of debate about the oil & gas ban pros & cons as well and if Pohokura is a short term situation or not.
Could it be that the situation of Pohokura gas shortage is being "gamed" by OMV to discredit the oil & gas ban by Labour?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/431939/problems-at-offshore-fields-lead-to-reduced-natural-gas-production

Article from last year but:

"The primary issue appears to be with the Pohokura field where there has been an unexpected and unexplained fall in production.

The field's operator, Austrian-owned OMV, has been investigating why Pohokura's output has fallen as much as 15 percent after maintenance work on several wells earlier in the year."

[Davexl]

Looking good with strong volume traded yesterday (same as previous large down day). Zero follow through on the bear break of previous support. Depth on this stock can be a bit cat and mouse... but there's a hidden buyer at 760. Targeting a bounce back to the 790's.

Nice one Johnny, ended up here today after going as high as ~ $8. Slow appreciation from here as the uncertainty unwinds closer to the deal concluding...