Gentailers should be easier to predict than many other stocks, so how did the analysts do with predicting TPW's performance over the last 12 months?
TPW's share price peaked in February 2019 at $6.53 and analysts (consensus) forecast for February 2020 was $6.03, which means analysts predicted the SP to drop over the last 12 months by 8%. They have been wrong - the TPW share price in February 2020 actually peaked at $7.55, i.e. instead of the forecasted drop of 8% did punters get a 16% rise. A clear fail for the analysts, but nice for the punters who didn't trusted them and bought anyway ;
Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a weak "HOLD"(4.6/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will slightly underperform the NZX. This prediction was correct. NZX went up by 21% and TPW went up by 16%. Close enough.
12 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/12; analyst hitrate: 8.3%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 4/12; analyst hitrate: 33%
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
On a different note: received a newsletter from Trustpower a few days back advising, power prices for Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty consumers are be reduced from 1st April.
Some nice person sold me a handful of TPW shares at 6.15. Very nice, cheers - but wondering whether I could have some more to completely fill my order?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Some nice person sold me a handful of TPW shares at 6.15. Very nice, cheers - but wondering whether I could have some more to completely fill my order?
Congratulations, good buying. Did you pick up any on the 23/3/20? Very tightly held company. I picked up a few at 6.55 a week ago, but what an effort. Wouldn't mind getting a few more if anyone out there wants to sell me some around 6.80 to 6.90.
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Originally Posted by Preston
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