TRUST POWER

[Voskar56]

TPW on the way down $4.59, what's going on ? ASB recommend BUY.

[macduffy]

Is it the result of the hiving off of the renewables part of the business into a new company - Tilt Renewables (TLT)? If so, the two components may still be finding their relative values.

[Sideshow Bob]

TPW on the way down $4.59, what's going on ? ASB recommend BUY.

just like Meridian. Craigs have that as a buy but getting sold down.

[Snow Leopard]

Market has not been kind to any of the electric companies of late. Mercury [Tiger hold] probably faired the least worst.

Gone from $8.30 in late July for the old TPW to a combined $6.73 for the new TPW + Tilt Windmills (still laughing at that one) today.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

.....
Gone from $8.30 in late July for the old TPW to a combined $6.73 for the new TPW + Tilt Windmills (still laughing at that one) today.....

And still dropping. It looks like the split was a very bad idea.

Part of that may be because stand alone wind in New Zealand is not profitable without subsidies, while in South Australia, with its large subsidies, wind is very profitable. Wind in NZ is best when combined with fast ramping plant like hydro, so splitting the wind and hydro away from each other is a negative move as far as earnings are concerned.

Trustpower, as a retailer, now has a smaller generation base to call on, and has to hedge a larger proportion of its energy purchases, thus increasing the cost of energy, and reducing its margin. It will be interesting to see what the next full year report looks like.

Discl: Not holding directly, but do hold IFT.

[Joshuatree]

Was offered some at a discount today; no details as i didn't respond or get round to considering it in the timeframe;but maybe an Insto selling down?Very good yield but that is that a bit dated not factoring in the Tilt split.?

[winner69]

Trustpower getting plenty of of flak about how they managed water flows from the dam up stream from Edgecumbe

Emotive talk like 'bastards putting profit first' doing the rounds

Whatever not a good look

[Jantar]

Trustpower getting plenty of of flak about how they managed water flows from the dam up stream from Edgecumbe

Emotive talk like 'bastards putting profit first' doing the rounds

Whatever not a good look

The hydrograph and flow data shows that the operators followed the table discharge pretty well perfectly. There is only a very small amount of water storage available in the Matahina lake and they maximised the available storage, and managed to pass around 100 cumecs less down stream than if the dam had not been there. That is a pretty good result as far as I can see.

The main problem is that the concrete section of the flood bank was undermined, and as with any such structure, once the water starts to pipe through the earth dam it is going to fail. Nothing Trustpower could have done would have helped.

[peat]

The hydrograph and flow data shows that the operators followed the table discharge pretty well perfectly. There is only a very small amount of water storage available in the Matahina lake and they maximised the available storage, and managed to pass around 100 cumecs less down stream than if the dam had not been there. That is a pretty good result as far as I can see.

The main problem is that the concrete section of the flood bank was undermined, and as with any such structure, once the water starts to pipe through the earth dam it is going to fail. Nothing Trustpower could have done would have helped.

Hi Jantar
I am just curious how your gained your data to support your view.
We're a bit concerned about possible liability here..... that is apart from the high PE and uncovered dividend.

[Jantar]

Hi Jantar
I am just curious how your gained your data to support your view.
We're a bit concerned about possible liability here..... that is apart from the high PE and uncovered dividend.

Flow data is available here http://monitoring.boprc.govt.nz/Moni...ils?point=1115

Its a pity I you didn't ask this before I went to work this morning or I could have provided the generation data from Matahina to go with it, but I'll be out of the country for the next 20 days so won't be back at work till after that.

However the graph shows that there was a small reduction in outflow in the early hours of 5th April at the point that the lake level reached minimum control level, and the operators had to reduce outflow slightly to prevent the lake going any lower. There is a small increase in flow during the morning as the lake behind Matihna dam rose, then a much larger but fairly steady rate of rise in flow after the maximum operating level was exceeded and table discharge commenced.

The only part of the rise that I would have any questions about was a reduction in the rate of rise then an increase again just before the peak. This is possibly due to the operators expecting the peak to be near and attempting to hold back a bit more water, then finding the peak was actually higher or later than they expected. We would need to see their operational logs to determine the reason. As that occurred after the stopbank had already given way it was not in any way a cause of the failure.

Discl: Not a holder directly, but do hold IFT.