Comvita - CVT

[BlackPeter]

Broker just declined my order to buy some at $2 ... I think that's what they would be worth after spilling an inept board and clean out the management team. Broker seems to feel that I still offered too much - told me to review the offer. LOL.

I guess an opportunity to do something better with my money until the market is ready for my offer - and hey, it might drop over time ;

[Ogg]

@Balance @Beagle

lol, you guy's are just way to conservative in a globalised world filled with cash.

If the take over party was looking for the last few months while the share price was $7+, then obviously they would pay that much today. The board was probably asking for $12, which would be fair if not for the downgrade which has obviously put a short term spanner in the works. The take over party knows if they don't buy it now and wait they risk next years season being good then the price will be double today. Might just have to settle for $8 in a months time.

If this was some generic run of the mill company, then obviously, then yeah, things would be bad now. That's why the short term downside was $1 at most.

[ratkin]

Posted 16 April. I think the directors aspirations in terms of value ignore the elephant in the room that this is an agricultural stock carrying massive weather risks.
I am not at all surprised that the interested party has walked away after yet another downgrade fiasco of Titanic proportions.
I think fair value is a VERY LONG WAY south of the current SP and obviously the interested party agrees however I would not be an investor at any price because I have no respect for management or the board after multiple year fiasco's with their forecasting.
Looks like the NZX will be stuck with this lemon for the foreseeable future.

Ogg should be very thankful for some very sage advice by some wise old heads on this thread.

You cannot altogether blame the company for the shareprice, it was investors driving it up to ridiculous levels that was part of the problem , how it ever got to 12 dollars was a mystery to me. For years it went on doing its little thing largely unnoticed with a shareprice of around 4.00 when it went over Six it suddenly went ballistic all the way to 12. You were one of its most vocal supporters during that time I seem to remember.

[Ogg]

You cannot altogether blame the company for the shareprice, it was investors driving it up to ridiculous levels that was part of the problem , how it ever got to 12 dollars was a mystery to me. For years it went on doing its little thing largely unnoticed with a shareprice of around 4.00 when it went over Six it suddenly went ballistic all the way to 12. You were one of its most vocal supporters during that time I seem to remember.

Sounds a bit like A2 Milk...The world has changed alot over the last few years. Premium established food brands operating in safety of well manged 1st world counties are in demand. Just a matter of time before the next take over attempt.

[Apathy]

lol

This is just deception and games by the Chinese. They want to buy it but they want it at the cheapest possible price. They lost the "act of surprise" when the directors said a take over was in the works so of cause they are pulling out so the price drops, then they will come back in. It's almost too predictable. Simple games really.

Who said it was Chinese - I heard it was a reverse takeover bid from SEA - they were going to issue 1 trillion billion million shares in return for controlling stake. Only fair they returned the favour and helped pump CVT share price for a while... :-)

[Beagle]

You cannot altogether blame the company for the shareprice, it was investors driving it up to ridiculous levels that was part of the problem , how it ever got to 12 dollars was a mystery to me. For years it went on doing its little thing largely unnoticed with a shareprice of around 4.00 when it went over Six it suddenly went ballistic all the way to 12. You were one of its most vocal supporters during that time I seem to remember.

I don't accept that and to be clear I am not blaming management for the SP. If people are foolish enough to still pay north of $6 for this mutt, good luck to them. Fact is company management have made a whole series of forecasts now that have proved to be recklessly and grossly inaccurate. This is an undisputed FACT.
At one point quite some time ago some people including myself thought management had credibility. We're a long way past that point now. The 20% gain from $10 to $12 was due to NZX50 inclusion. Some people cunningly took advantage of that temporary aberration in pricing due to index inclusion. Even now management have a $400m sales target as one of their aspirations for 2021. FCNZ, one of the more respected analysts and are in the mid-late $200m range somewhere from memory and are essentially calling out CVT's management as grossly optimistic and unrealistic.
I really think it belongs back under $4 and all this talk of high growth has been just that, talk that's come to nothing.
If the weather plays nice, every now and again they might make $17m which is about 40 cps and when we apply the time tested agricultural PE of 10 then we get a cyclical peak of $4. Why people are paying north of $6 still after all the recent fiasco's, go figure ?

[Ogg]

Price now $6.25...looks like they're just happy to buy it on market

edit, $6.31 now, seller at $6.50 ***it's happening***

[Balance]

Will not happen imo.

I have observed a few China attempts at taking over or buying NZ agri-based companies like Manuka Health and Freshmax in the last few years. In both instances they weren't prepared to pay the sort of money others were prepared to pay or what the vendors wanted.

PEP will be regretting their decision to buy Manuka Health for $110m if Comvita's problems are any guide. The Chinese I believe stopped at $100m.

All very predictable actually.

[Apathy]

You cannot altogether blame the company for the shareprice, it was investors driving it up to ridiculous levels that was part of the problem , how it ever got to 12 dollars was a mystery to me. For years it went on doing its little thing largely unnoticed with a shareprice of around 4.00 when it went over Six it suddenly went ballistic all the way to 12. You were one of its most vocal supporters during that time I seem to remember.

NZX doesn't help - can someone explain to me how they have them showing a p/e of 5.49 and EPS of $1.23?

[blackcap]

NZX doesn't help - can someone explain to me how they have them showing a p/e of 5.49 and EPS of $1.23?

I can't find this information on the NZX? https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT

Or am I missing something here?