Comvita - CVT

[BlackPeter]

we could be sub $3.00 soon at the rate that CVT is falling, where is this business going now ?

Still bids for nearly 32,000 shares in the market. Pity that 31,000 of them offer only $1,00 a share;

[Beagle]

Oh dear:

revenue down, EBIT slashed and a significant NPAT loss ... they lost nearly 6 cents per share for the first HY!
and worse - they don't produce the honey, they need to buy it and hope that it will appreciate ...

How do you call a loss making company with negative revenue and earnings growth and a management which got now 3 out of 3 forecasts wrong?
Right - Comvita!

Here cometh the 3 handle?

I don't think its even worth a dollar. Name change is required "Convita" I think those bidding $1 are braver than TRA shareholders and that's really saying something !
I hope they manage to stay in business so this dog can still buy their excellent Derma cream product but if they don't there's plenty of other manuka honey producers, (a dime a dozen really) making similar products.

The one thing I lament with this share....if only picking winners was this easy...

[Balance]

Looks pretty bad, lol.

Big drop in North American and Europe. NZ flat. Only Asia is growing.

Might as well sell out to the Chinese.

Chinese will be looking to average down having paid over $10.00 before. Ouch!

They may pay $2.50 and that is expensive for a stock which has failed to deliver on anything.

Recall the $400m revenue target by 2020?

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster to an agricultural stock - debts have gone from bugger all in 2013 to over $100m today and that's after raising over $100m of new equity over that time!

[Beagle]

Chinese will be looking to average down having paid over $10.00 before. Ouch!

They may pay $2.50 and that is expensive for a stock which has failed to deliver on anything.

Recall the $400m revenue target by 2020?

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster to an agricultural stock - debts have gone from bugger all in 2013 to over $100m today and that's after raising over $100m of new equity over that time!

Hat tip to Forest who took the trouble to drive all the way to the annual meeting a couple of years ago and told us he wasn't happy with the answers to questions he asked. Also kudos to you mate for consistently calling this company out for all its "creative talk" in many forms.
This company has been an unmitigated disaster and management and directors credibility with ALL previous forecasting is in complete tatters.
I would not pay $1.00 for a share in this company. I think its uninvest able.

[Ogg]

Capital raising will be required soon enough by the banks who must be pissing in their pants at yet another lending disaster

That's probably the biggest risk now. MPG territory (maybe you can flick this one too?)

[Ogg]

Surely a private equity buy out is the only way forward from here?

[winner69]

Inventories equate to over 9 months of total revenue!! Ouch!!!

Yes bob .... more than enough stock to cover a years sales

[kiwidollabill]

The've snuck the term 'Global Price Harmonisation' in a few times... wonder if it is code for the Australians are undercutting us and we are quietly crapping ourselves.

For such a material N. American customer they 'should have' a decent view on their current stock and future requirements, no reason this couldnt have been forecasted and properly managed...

Still some more pain to be had... they're trying to do a million things at once (so many small scale aquesitions, investments etc) and doing none of the core things right (i.e. pricing, stock management and forecasting). PE could swoop in, clear the decks of the rubbish and turn a decent $.

[stoploss]

The take over will happen, it's just a question of when.

Your $3 downside call was just plain wrong. The stock has already come down from $12 and the market cap today is a meagre $280m.

I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table. They won't just walk away. This is all just part of their plan.

I'd admit $10 is probably not gonna happen "this year." I can see at least $8 in the short term, maybe $9 if they're lucky now.

Now that the share price has dropped, so has the expectations, therefore it's the same odds as before, $2/$3 upside vs $1 downside. I'd advise those who got trapped before to double down.

It will be interesting to see if $6 holds tomorrow. I bet you it does hold. Need to wait a few days for the volume to settle to see where it's at. If it drops below $5.50 (which it won't) I might get back in, but at that price I'll be in for the long term.

At the end of the day, this stock is just cheap compared to everything else in the world today. If it was trading on the ASX or was a private company it would be double the price today. Hell, even Capilano Honey on the ASX is almost as big as Comvita now.

Must be really "cheap " now ....... Just because something was $ 12, it doesn't mean its cheap at half the price and certainly doesn't mean it can't get cheaper .
Hope you haven't been backing the truck up too much Ogg .

[Ogg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12207367

The company said changes to the way it does business with China, a lack of orders from a major existing US customer, and another poor pre-Christmas honey harvest, drove the company into the red over the six months.