Comvita - CVT

[BlackPeter]

Amazing this dog is still hanging around $6 ... despite questions about the future value of the product, big losses this year and a management team who's predictions have been proven wrong more than once in the past (actually - when was the last time they got it right?).

Ah yes, forward PE of 37.5 (only if you believe the optimistic management predictions) and a CAGR of less than 10 ...

Looking however at the bigger picture - Sp still stuck in a long and sustained downtrend (ways below MA200) ... Anybody thinking they might have bottomed out, and why? Any happy holders around (there might be - I think they started around $4 at IPO - didn't they?)?

[winner69]

FY18 loss less than what they said it might be

All honky dory for FY18

“In summary, based on an assumption of a normal 2017/18 honey production season and a partial recovery of the grey channel we would expect after tax operating earnings for FY18 to be at least equal to our after tax operating earnings of $17.1m achieved in FY16 (over the comparable 12 month period),” Mr. Coulter said.

That's a PE of about 16 - in this basis one of cheaper stocks on the NZX (relative PEs)

[Beagle]

FY18 loss less than what they said it might be

All honky dory for FY18

“In summary, based on an assumption of a normal 2017/18 honey production season and a partial recovery of the grey channel we would expect after tax operating earnings for FY18 to be at least equal to our after tax operating earnings of $17.1m achieved in FY16 (over the comparable 12 month period),” Mr. Coulter said.

That's a PE of about 16 - in this basis one of cheaper stocks on the NZX (relative PEs)

Well...yes, (putting my "being as kind as I can be hat on") on a strict arithmetic basis it is one of the cheaper stocks on the NZX with the following caveats :-
Given their record of forecasting what reliability if any can investors ascribe to this year's forecast ?, i.e. what is the real E ?
Given this forecast is predicated on fair weather conditions what PE should we ascribe to estimated earnings given this stock clearly carries intrinsic agricultural risks ?
What other risks do investors need to consider, e.g. accreditation risks, is Manuka honey really much better than any other sort of common garden variety ?
Disc: No longer own and not considering a reinvestment anytime soon.

[winner69]

Punters getting excited about the future of CVT - market cap up $30m (10%) this morning

Could easily go back above $10 - was much higher when achieving similar (expected) profits

[BlackPeter]

Punters getting excited about the future of CVT - market cap up $30m (10%) this morning

Could easily go back above $10 - was much higher when achieving similar (expected) profits

your friends from the bowling club still holding ?

[winner69]

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow review interesting

In spite of selling the family silver free cash flow just positive

Still have heaps of inventory (down a fraction)

But I am always intrugued to see things like trade receivables moving up $19m a year ago to $44m this year ...when revenues are way down. Regional breakdown says all owed by China .....hmmm. Probably be shot down if I speculated on way the huge rise in debtors)



At least Minister Coleman was more open on fiddling the books this morning on the radio - DHB could cut their deficits if they just lowered depreciation by assuming longer lifes of their assets

[Ogg]

"China Resources Ng Fung" bought another large parcel. It's bounced strongly from the lows and guidance is now back to normal. I can see this returning back towards the highs in the medium term. This could be the next A2 Milk.

Disc: Not holding as already fully extended elsewhere. Watching closing and hoping it doesn't run too hard before I can enter (again).

[nomis]

[QUOTE=Ogg;683520]"China Resources Ng Fung" bought another large parcel. It's bounced strongly from the lows and guidance is now back to normal. I can see this returning back towards the highs in the medium term. This could be the next A2 Milk.

Lets hope so, I didn't quite hit the low but have a average buy of $6.90 now and am happy with that and will continue to hold/buy. I do expect in the mid term that CVT will be back around $10.

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE=nomis;688545]

"China Resources Ng Fung" bought another large parcel. It's bounced strongly from the lows and guidance is now back to normal. I can see this returning back towards the highs in the medium term. This could be the next A2 Milk.

Lets hope so, I didn't quite hit the low but have a average buy of $6.90 now and am happy with that and will continue to hold/buy. I do expect in the mid term that CVT will be back around $10.

Interesting. Just had a quick look into the numbers. Even if I take the in my view quite optimistic analyst assumptions (I guess based on the data the company provides) do i see them with a forward PE of nearly 40 and a forward CAGR of less than 15%. I guess if we believe these numbers (I don't), than they are currently fully valued. What do you expect to improve from here (higher growth or higher earnings) so that one can justify a SP of $10?

[hardt]

Interesting. Just had a quick look into the numbers. Even if I take the in my view quite optimistic analyst assumptions (I guess based on the data the company provides) do i see them with a forward PE of nearly 40 and a forward CAGR of less than 15%. I guess if we believe these numbers (I don't), than they are currently fully valued. What do you expect to improve from here (higher growth or higher earnings) so that one can justify a SP of $10?

EPS is "predicted" to fully recover by FY18 ( 38-40cps )

And assumptions are that this was a one off year for Comvita as management can't avoid a weather nuke...

Only thing to worry about is the demand remaining for Comvita products after a leave of absence for so many of their products.

Could we not expect them to pick up where they left off ( even in a muted state )? - bar another catastrophic weather cycle for apiaries across the country.