Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
Nobody will care including the OIO.
If only it was an easy as picking the right PE.
I start with the board, do they have a credible track record of governance ? (No otherwise they would have been reigning in the CEO's ludicrously optimistic forecasts that have regularly been wildly wrong
Does management have a credible track record with their performance and forecasting ability ? Repeated Epic Fails.
Have they been achieving previous KPI's as outlined in pervious years annual reports ? Repeated Epic fails
Is the company cash flow positive and is cash flow growing ? Epic Fail year after year.
Is the gearing acceptable ? Its getting a lot worse as they pay dividends out of negative cash flow.
What are the market dynamics and is the regulatory regime likely to change ? All the hype of sales into China hasn't come to much. The regulatory environment regarding manuka honey specification is uncertain and fluid.
Fundamentally is the forecast PE attractive given the sector the company trades in and its growth rate ? No its shockingly overpriced and could very easily halve in the foreseeable future.
Technically, is the stock in an confirmed uptrend ? No its in a confirmed downtrend despite takeover possibility which must be a massive red flag for anyone who believes anything about TA.

This company fails All the filters I use in stock selection...not just two or three, All of them !

Might as well back the truck up and learn yourself a serious lesson the hard way I reckon as you quite obviously don't want to listen to anyone on here.
I can see this under $4 if the party doing due diligence walks away.
Stop bashing the board. They can't control the weather or when the stock price goes too high because of market hype. On the whole this company has been a success over the long term, which is rare for the NZX.

I don't disagree with your technical assessment but that all just goes out the door when you're dealing with a company that has a monopolistic competitive edge. This is a rare case.

The Chinese ecommerce consumer market has only just started. Over the next decade the potential sales for Comvita are huge! If you think this is overvalued just look at A2 Milk! I wouldn't be surprised to see a JV deal with them too.

You're about to get a lesson on just how special and unique NZ is and what it has to offer for 1.4B+ consumers.

Paying $300m for this is like pennies to them. At worst I might break even. I see this as an easy quick trade. Happy to take shares from those who want to value it like it's an airline company.