Comvita - CVT

[Ogg]

I thought the bet is this :

Refer your post above - "I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table."

So my bet is that there will not be an offer by 20 June 2018 - that's 4 weeks (more than a few weeks).

Shall we say $2,500?

Happy to make it higher if you like.

lol, yeah I dunno about the $2,500...

The problem is that there IS an offer on the table, it's just that it's not high enough for the board to accept. If the stock were to drop as much as you said it would, then the offer WOULD be high enough for the board to accept - it's a catch 22, so making a bet on the deadline is a bit pointless. In order for me to be right, the stock would have to drop alot, but then you'll be right, but then the buy out would likely happen, and then I'd be right again.

What I was really saying is that there's alot more left in this story and it's unlikely to be the end of it, and so there's more opportunities to trade it in the short term. The fact that the stock hasn't dropped alot, suggests that maybe another offer within 4 weeks may not be likely, but then again, if the stock isn't dropping, it's worth holding just in case something does happen.

Anyway, the question is what's the right move at any given point in time. It was definitely worth getting in at $6.70, and making a play with the take over even though it didn't work out, cause you've now had two days to get out at $6.10, so you've traded a small 60 cent loss on what could have been 2 or 3 times more on the upside. So what do you do now?...

Do you buy at $6, hoping that it's low enough that the board will get under pressure and be more reluctant to negotiate, at say $7, thus making yourself a quick $1. Or do you keep buying the dips and hold long term, hope things improve next season, and go for a bigger prize? Maybe do a bit of both, and pivot on any developments.

As the stock drops, the risk drops, the upside increases, more punters get in, more leverage is created etc... There's money to be made here, long term or short. That's why this stock should be on everyone's watchlist.

As for the bet, I dunno. I'd bet that something happens within 4 weeks that makes us all rush back here to talk about it.

[kiora]

Actually,as the inventory price drops the SP drops

[Balance]

lol, yeah I dunno about the $2,500...

I like to put my money where my mouth is.

So much for your utterances and confidence then.

[percy]

I like to put my money where my mouth is.

So much for your utterances and confidence then.

BIG mouth....................lol.

[Balance]

BIG mouth....................lol.

Yup - Ogg's mouth would make Mick Jagger envious?

[Ogg]

Yup - Ogg's mouth would make Mick Jagger envious?

lol, what do you think the bottom will be then, once the volume returns to normal?

[Beagle]

I like to put my money where my mouth is.

So much for your utterances and confidence then.

Words are cheap eh buddy ! Good on you for calling him out. P.S. I wouldn't even take the other side of that bet at 10:1 odds.

[Ogg]

Words are cheap eh buddy ! Good on you for calling him out. P.S. I wouldn't even take the other side of that bet at 10:1 odds.

lol, how about I'll let you guys know when I get back in CVT and we'll take if from there. I'm gonna wait until the volume drys up then may enter if it's low enough.

[steveb]

Yup - Ogg's mouth would make Mick Jagger envious?

yes it's interesting to look back at some of his posts some are quite outlandish,in nov last year he gave veritas 6 months tops,yet they are still around today.I just wish I was as thick skinned as him!

[Balance]

lol, how about I'll let you guys know when I get back in CVT and we'll take if from there. I'm gonna wait until the volume drys up then may enter if it's low enough.

Yup - back to the old pump, ramp and dump.