Comvita - CVT

[ziggy415]

I'm shocked at some of the posters comments on this thread who appear to be acting like a gang of school ground bullies...no wonder people are leaving sharetrader if this is how we treat fellow posters...shame on you guys

[Beagle]

Looks like I am still overvaluing this company . No, actually - I took the 3 year forecast and averaged it out. Agree however that it has little credibility - as any other forecast coming from its board.

I had a look on 4traders to see if their are any broker forecasts in the market and according to them there aren't.
So looking back over the last 3 years and adjusting profit for the one off sale of their medihoney division last year and adjusting 2016 for 15 months down to 12 months we see results for 2015 - 2017 of $17.2m, $14.8m and $(5.5m) and $9.5m if they achieve their forecast for FY18. The trend is not very encouraging but lets be generous and take an average which is $9m.
9m / 45.57m shares = 19.75 cps. At $5.93 they're on a forward PE of 30, down from the silly 35 they were a little while ago.
I think they need to come back to a PE of around 10 - 15 to fairly reflect the very obvious agricultural risks including quite obviously significant weather risk and not to forget pestilence, (murtyle rust).
I see fair value somewhere between $2 - $3. Anything above that and you really have to start believing in management that they really can start to deliver growth against the factual observation that they simply are not. To be honest I am surprised anyone has any confidence left !

[BlackPeter]

I had a look on 4traders to see if their are any broker forecasts in the market and according to them there aren't.
So looking back over the last 3 years and adjusting profit for the one off sale of their medihoney division last year and adjusting 2016 for 15 months down to 12 months we see results for 2015 - 2017 of $17.2m, $14.8m and $(5.5m) and $9.5m if they achieve their forecast for FY18. The trend is not very encouraging but lets be generous and take an average which is $9m.
9m / 45.57m shares = 19.75 cps. At $5.93 they're on a forward PE of 30, down from the silly 35 they were a little while ago.
I think they need to come back to a PE of around 10 - 15 to fairly reflect the very obvious agricultural risks including quite obviously significant weather risk and not to forget pestilence, (murtyle rust).
I see fair value somewhere between $2 - $3. Anything above that and you really have to start believing in management that they really can start to deliver growth against the factual observation that they simply are not. To be honest I am surprised anyone has any confidence left !

Interesting - I do have in my spreadsheet still EPS forecasts for Comvita: 23 cents for 2018 and 41 cents for 2019. Pretty sure I didn't made these numbers up but took them from 4-traders. My last update of this company was on the 10th of May. This would make at current discounted price (I hear you ogg) an average forward PE of just 18.5 (given that the SP dropped since my last post ;p).

However - you are right (back to beagle), I just checked again and the EPS forecasts magically disappeared since then. Who knows, maybe the analysts got cold feet or have been part of the "due diligence" exercise and know now better ?

Anyway - I think we are absolutely in agreement re the quality of the forecasts as well as the underlying value of the company (though I probably would push your proposed upper boundary of $3 somewhat lower.

No need to disagree on details - just lets sit back, take a bag of popcorn and watch the drama unfold.

[winner69]

Craig’s keeping the faith ....although not a buy anymore

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...esk-co-nz.html

[Balance]

Craig’s keeping the faith ....although not a buy anymore

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...esk-co-nz.html

Heavens help those who use their guidance to invest - $9 to $6.10?

A stock valued at PER of 36 times (!) whose fortunes are completely subject to the vagaries of the weather and nature for its sole ingredient (manuka honey) and is has been consistently running cashflow deficits?

[winner69]

Heavens help those who use their guidance to invest - $9 to $6.10?

Judgement might be clouded by Comvita having a Craig as Chairman

[Ogg]

Heavens help those who use their guidance to invest - $9 to $6.10?

A stock valued at PER of 36 times (!) whose fortunes are completely subject to the vagaries of the weather and nature for its sole ingredient (manuka honey) and is has been consistently running cashflow deficits?

Director buying today as well.

I'm a buyer at $5.50, maybe $5.75 if I see a strong platform develop.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...412/279783.pdf

2,000 shares - tokenism at its worse given how badly the directors and management of this company have completely misguided the market with their forecasts in the last 2 years.

[Balance]

Wait for it - the short covering buyers need to lock in their profits first.

Short cover-ers backing off now.

If Craigs, the house broker, has a valuation of $6.10, those covering shorts know the stock will be coming to them - they just have to wait.

[Ogg]

Big dump...time to open the "buy screen".