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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #1181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    Big dump...time to open the "buy screen".
    Not low enough still. Another 2 bucks off and could be then tempting

  2. #1182
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    Quote Originally Posted by RGR367 View Post
    Not low enough still. Another 2 bucks off and could be then tempting

    gezz, you're tight, lol...

    It's hard gonna be hard to pick the bottom. Not alot of buy support. Surely $250m MC is a fair balance between bears and bulls.

  3. #1183
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    Quote Originally Posted by RGR367 View Post
    Not low enough still. Another 2 bucks off and could be then tempting

    $3.75 - PER of 22 times for a company with a track record of missing forecasts, unreliable information and is totally dependent on the weather and bees to deliver its lifeline supply of one product?

    You are easy to please!
    Last edited by Balance; 24-05-2018 at 12:44 PM.

  4. #1184
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Craig’s keeping the faith ....although not a buy anymore

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...esk-co-nz.html
    Its a sad joke. The $400m sales target two years ago has already been pushed out from 2020 to 2021 and now they think its 2023. Follow the trend. In two years time the target will be pushed out 3 years to 2026 and two years after that will be pushed out 4 years to 2030. What is the point of having a sales target that cannot realistically be met.
    Who are they trying to con that this is a growth company when the EPS suggests the exact opposite ?
    Normalising the profit for the last 4 years gives just on 20 cps. Until they can PROVE they are a growth company I think the standard no growth agricultural risk PE of 10 applies which suggests they're worth only $2 !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Its a sad joke. The $400m sales target two years ago has already been pushed out from 2020 to 2021 and now they think its 2023. Follow the trend. In two years time the target will be pushed out 3 years to 2026 and two years after that will be pushed out 4 years to 2030. What is the point of having a sales target that cannot realistically be met.
    Who are they trying to con that this is a growth company when the EPS suggests the exact opposite ?
    Normalising the profit for the last 4 years gives just on 20 cps. Until they can PROVE they are a growth company I think the standard no growth agricultural risk PE of 10 applies which suggests they're worth only $2 !
    To put in perspective just how truly horrible Comvita's performance has been, PGW has outperformed CVT by 141.4% in the last 2 years !!!!!!!

    PGW sp up 74% (39c to 68c) and 19% dividend payout - total gain of 93%.

    CVT sp down 50% ($11.55 to $5.76) and 1.6% dividend yield - total loss of 48.4%.

    So why should CVT even trade on a PER of 10?
    Last edited by Balance; 24-05-2018 at 04:08 PM.

  6. #1186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    To put how really bad Comvita's performance has been, PGW has outperformed CVT by 141.4% in the last 2 years !!!!!!!

    PGW sp up 74% (39c to 68c) and 19% dividend payout - total gain of 93%.

    CVT sp down 50% ($11.55 to $5.76) and 1.6% dividend yield - total loss of 48.4%.

    So why should CVT even trade on a PER of 10?
    What a shocker and a good question mate. Maybe a PE discount from standard well diversified no growth Agri shares (10) because all the risk is concentrated in one sector, one that's riddled with myrtle rust and very obvious weather dependency !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #1187
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    @Balance @Beagle

    Was gonna buy today, but got cold feet cause of you two bashing the stock, lol.

    This is interesting...

    https://www.nzbees.net/forums/topic/...dmaybe/?page=2

    It's disappointing that the $400m target has got pushed out but it's still on the table which is why this deserves a higher PE.

    I'm thinking maybe one more day of highest volume, and then maybe next week return to normal? It's gotta be close to bottom. At $5.50, it's about $250m MC. I just don't see it going lower unless that $400m target disappears.

    Lots more F5 tomorrow

  8. #1188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    What a shocker and a good question mate. Maybe a PE discount from standard well diversified no growth Agri shares (10) because all the risk is concentrated in one sector, one that's riddled with myrtle rust and very obvious weather dependency !
    With a continued increase in managed hives aka hive density, American foul brood (AFB) is also a risk to the industry. It could decimate everything. There is also potential for new pests and disease to find its way to NZ that would mean more labour costs on hive management et

  9. #1189
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    @Balance @Beagle

    Was gonna buy today, but got cold feet cause of you two bashing the stock, lol.

    This is interesting...

    https://www.nzbees.net/forums/topic/...dmaybe/?page=2

    It's disappointing that the $400m target has got pushed out but it's still on the table which is why this deserves a higher PE.

    I'm thinking maybe one more day of highest volume, and then maybe next week return to normal? It's gotta be close to bottom. At $5.50, it's about $250m MC. I just don't see it going lower unless that $400m target disappears.

    Lots more F5 tomorrow
    Attachment 9698

    What a sad chart. Why would you think the price got to be close to the bottom? Which of the indicators is telling you that?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 25-05-2018 at 08:18 AM. Reason: attempt to improve picture quality ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #1190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    What a shocker and a good question mate. Maybe a PE discount from standard well diversified no growth Agri shares (10) because all the risk is concentrated in one sector, one that's riddled with myrtle rust and very obvious weather dependency !
    Not to mention increased competition.

    There are now more than 100 UMF certified producers where there were only 5 a few years ago.

    The ole economics 101 says where there are super-profits, competition will enter and reduce that super profits.

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