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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #991
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Nobody will care including the OIO.
    If only it was an easy as picking the right PE.
    I start with the board, do they have a credible track record of governance ? (No otherwise they would have been reigning in the CEO's ludicrously optimistic forecasts that have regularly been wildly wrong
    Does management have a credible track record with their performance and forecasting ability ? Repeated Epic Fails.
    Have they been achieving previous KPI's as outlined in pervious years annual reports ? Repeated Epic fails
    Is the company cash flow positive and is cash flow growing ? Epic Fail year after year.
    Is the gearing acceptable ? Its getting a lot worse as they pay dividends out of negative cash flow.
    What are the market dynamics and is the regulatory regime likely to change ? All the hype of sales into China hasn't come to much. The regulatory environment regarding manuka honey specification is uncertain and fluid.
    Fundamentally is the forecast PE attractive given the sector the company trades in and its growth rate ? No its shockingly overpriced and could very easily halve in the foreseeable future.
    Technically, is the stock in an confirmed uptrend ? No its in a confirmed downtrend despite takeover possibility which must be a massive red flag for anyone who believes anything about TA.

    This company fails All the filters I use in stock selection...not just two or three, All of them !

    Might as well back the truck up and learn yourself a serious lesson the hard way I reckon as you quite obviously don't want to listen to anyone on here.
    I can see this under $4 if the party doing due diligence walks away.
    Stop bashing the board. They can't control the weather or when the stock price goes too high because of market hype. On the whole this company has been a success over the long term, which is rare for the NZX.

    I don't disagree with your technical assessment but that all just goes out the door when you're dealing with a company that has a monopolistic competitive edge. This is a rare case.

    The Chinese ecommerce consumer market has only just started. Over the next decade the potential sales for Comvita are huge! If you think this is overvalued just look at A2 Milk! I wouldn't be surprised to see a JV deal with them too.

    You're about to get a lesson on just how special and unique NZ is and what it has to offer for 1.4B+ consumers.

    Paying $300m for this is like pennies to them. At worst I might break even. I see this as an easy quick trade. Happy to take shares from those who want to value it like it's an airline company.

  2. #992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yeap mate it was a good run while it lasted. Price went up 20% upon inclusion in the NZX50....and some say there are no free investment lunches
    I’m glad you listened to me (eventually) that the signs were there that things weren’t as rosy as they were making out......you were in love with them eh.

    Glad you made heaps though.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #993
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I’m glad you listened to me (eventually) that the signs were there that things weren’t as rosy as they were making out......you were in love with them eh.

    Glad you made heaps though.
    Thanks mate. I confess I do think some of the products they sell are very good b ut it takes good management to translate that into a company with strongly growing earnings and I think with the benifet of hindsight Scott Coulter has played very fast and loose with the growth word. I really appreciate your notes of caution on this one and other sage advice you so often freely share.

    Fill ya boots Ogg and we'll see in due course who gets the lesson.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-04-2018 at 03:02 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #994
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks mate. I confess I do think some of the products they sell are very good b ut it takes good management to translate that into a company with strongly growing earnings and I think with the benifet of hindsight Scott Coulter has played very fast and loose with the growth word. I really appreciate your notes of caution on this one and other sage advice you so often freely share.

    Fill ya boots Ogg and we'll see in due course who gets the lesson.
    What do you think the take over price is gonna be then Beagle?

    If they have been looking at buying this for a "few months", then they must love it now at $6.60? Do you reckon they're gonna offer like $3 tops or something or pull out and let A2 Milk get it ??

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    I've heard of mud wrestling, how about you two get in a honey pit and have at it! Question is, who do I bet on?

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    Nope, honey pit just sounds wrong. Forget I stuck my nose in.

  7. #997
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    What do you think the take over price is gonna be then Beagle?

    If they have been looking at buying this for a "few months", then they must love it now at $6.60? Do you reckon they're gonna offer like $3 tops or something or pull out and let A2 Milk get it ??
    I would think after this latest profit downgrade fiasco they're odds on favorite to pull out but why not put up a big buy order at $6.50 and see what happens. You might make heaps. Hint..if the market liked it so much why is there such a paucity of depth on the buy side and why is it dropping ?
    Fill ya boots mate, someone else will be very relieved to see meaningful depth on the buy side at $6.50, I can almost guarantee that !

    I am bored but now I really do give up, there is none so blind as those that simply will not see...
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-04-2018 at 03:27 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #998
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghost Monkey View Post
    Nope, honey pit just sounds wrong. Forget I stuck my nose in.w

    Buy some shares while you are here
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #999
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Buy some shares while you are here
    (sigh) I was thinking of taking a break from buying on wishes and hope......

  10. #1000
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I would think after this latest profit downgrade fiasco they're odds on favorite to pull out but why not put up a big buy order at $6.50 and see what happens. You might make heaps. Hint..if the market liked it so much why is there such a paucity of depth on the buy side and why is it dropping ?
    Fill ya boots mate, someone else will be very relieved to see meaningful depth on the buy side at $6.50, I can almost guarantee that !

    I am bored but now I really do give up, there is none so blind as those that simply will not see...
    They would have known about the downgrade weeks ago. Didn't stop them last season from buying again. They're not gonna pull out because of a little bit of rain, sure, they might play some games but it's a done deal pretty much.

    Yeah, I dunno why the market isn't interested, does make me nervous. I already bought today, might buy again tomorrow. Got $100k to throw at this so not in any rush. I'll just let it keep going down.

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