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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #1001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    They would have known about the downgrade weeks ago. Didn't stop them last season from buying again. They're not gonna pull out because of a little bit of rain, sure, they might play some games but it's a done deal pretty much.

    Yeah, I dunno wthy the market isn't interested, does make me nervous. I already bought today, might buy again tomorrow. Got $100k to throw at this so not in any rush. I'll just let it keep going down.
    Ogg, before you get in up to your neck . Check out the Pumpkin Patch thread . There was someone called Belgaron ( s/p) bought all the way down think he called it pyramiding ......
    They didn’t have a monopoly on kids clothes , check out ManukaHealth , Manuka Doctor, plenty of people in this space . What happens if they don’t get a crop for the next 2 years ? Btw I hear a lot of Maori land via the trusts are being utilized in this space , more competition for CVT ....
    Good luck but it has been pointed out here numerous times don’t buy in a downtrend .. People who pick bottoms end up with .....

  2. #1002
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    What do you think the take over price is gonna be then Beagle?

    If they have been looking at buying this for a "few months", then they must love it now at $6.60? Do you reckon they're gonna offer like $3 tops or something or pull out and let A2 Milk get it ??
    Probably thanking their lucky stars that they waited for the impact of the last 3 months to become clear!

    Interesting that Comvita manuka honey is heavily discounted in the shops if supply is an issue.

    500g UMF5+ RRP = $56 https://www.comvita.co.nz/category/m...y/rangeNZ00001

    Same item at Countdown $36.99 (33% off) https://shop.countdown.co.nz/shop/pr...ockcode=269855

    Go back two years and the supermarkets could not get any supply and if they did, would be sold out in half a day.

    And so on and so forth - https://www.healthpost.co.nz/superfo...s/manuka-honey

  3. #1003
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Ogg, before you get in up to your neck . Check out the Pumpkin Patch thread . There was someone called Belgaron ( s/p) bought all the way down think he called it pyramiding ......
    They didn’t have a monopoly on kids clothes , check out ManukaHealth , Manuka Doctor, plenty of people in this space . What happens if they don’t get a crop for the next 2 years ? Btw I hear a lot of Maori land via the trusts are being utilized in this space , more competition for CVT ....
    Good luck but it has been pointed out here numerous times don’t buy in a downtrend .. People who pick bottoms end up with .....
    That Belgie was a legend

    I think his first pyramid was Feltex

    Might of stuffed up on Feltex and pumpkin patch but he had many big winners
    Last edited by winner69; 18-04-2018 at 05:47 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1004
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    They would have known about the downgrade weeks ago. Didn't stop them last season from buying again. They're not gonna pull out because of a little bit of rain, sure, they might play some games but it's a done deal pretty much.

    Yeah, I dunno why the market isn't interested, does make me nervous. I already bought today, might buy again tomorrow. Got $100k to throw at this so not in any rush. I'll just let it keep going down.
    I like a man who goes against the grain with a balsy punt, hope you do well. PS- I buy in all trends, up, down or sideways.

  5. #1005
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    Love this debate and great to see the contrarian views. I remember debating this with Beagle when he was buying in and I opted for SEK at the same time, which has had a lot smoother ride.
    Ogg good on you for sticking to what you believe in and saying so.

    Discl: Never held this one

  6. #1006
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Love this debate and great to see the contrarian views. I remember debating this with Beagle when he was buying in and I opted for SEK at the same time, which has had a lot smoother ride.
    Ogg good on you for sticking to what you believe in and saying so.

    Discl: Never held this one
    Second that Iceman. Always good to have robust exchanges of views and in the process, the friction creates some gems!

  7. #1007
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Ogg, before you get in up to your neck . Check out the Pumpkin Patch thread . There was someone called Belgaron ( s/p) bought all the way down think he called it pyramiding ......
    They didn’t have a monopoly on kids clothes , check out ManukaHealth , Manuka Doctor, plenty of people in this space . What happens if they don’t get a crop for the next 2 years ? Btw I hear a lot of Maori land via the trusts are being utilized in this space , more competition for CVT ....
    Good luck but it has been pointed out here numerous times don’t buy in a downtrend .. People who pick bottoms end up with .....
    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Probably thanking their lucky stars that they waited for the impact of the last 3 months to become clear!

    Interesting that Comvita manuka honey is heavily discounted in the shops if supply is an issue.

    500g UMF5+ RRP = $56 https://www.comvita.co.nz/category/m...y/rangeNZ00001

    Same item at Countdown $36.99 (33% off) https://shop.countdown.co.nz/shop/pr...ockcode=269855

    Go back two years and the supermarkets could not get any supply and if they did, would be sold out in half a day.

    And so on and so forth - https://www.healthpost.co.nz/superfo...s/manuka-honey
    I just don't buy this "there's heaps of competition in this space" argument. For starters, there's room for everybody in New Zealand to do well overseas in the long term given the amount of people worldwide that need food. Secondly, what you'll find across all markets, is that the top 1% of companies own 99% of the market. In other words, it's the market leader that benefits the most. Just think of every market, there's always 1 or 2 companies that completely dominate. Comvita will just continue to dominate this market forever. As the market grows so will Comvita. That's why the Chinese are buying it, cause they can't recreate it, therefore they should pay a huge premium. It's the same with "land" in Auckland, every auction room is fulled with Chinese throwing money around at low yields (or high PE's).

    Pumpkin Patch had nothing going for it, it was just a brand, that was it. Same with Tegal, they're all just generic companies that don't have anything unique going for them. Just imagine if Pumpkin Patch had the exclusive rights to cotton/polyester or if chickens where indigenous to New Zealand, completely different ball game.

    Also, found this quote in an article dating back to 2016:

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...s-1h-loss.html

    Coulter said the China Resources had said it has no intention of seeking a full takeover because it saw value in the company in being New Zealand-owned and operated.
    Either the Chinese are a bunch of sneaky little **** or it's A2 Milk that's buying them. Either way, I know who ever ends up buying it will pay a huge premium.

    If it does drop down to the $3/4 level I'll be pretty bummed, but it will be because of dummy local investors who just have no idea how valuable premium New Zealand agricultural brands are worth to the world.
    Last edited by Ogg; 18-04-2018 at 07:42 PM.

  8. #1008
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    Ogg you don't buy the competition argument , I don't buy the " Comvita will just continue to dominate this market forever" If Comvita are dominating the market why aren't they making serious money ? Why is the S/p half what it was ?
    Do you realise at one stage there was more "Manuka" honey for sale in the UK then gets produced in NZ each year ..... and I thought most of it got exported to China ... So it's being ripped off everywhere . I understand they have taken measures to stop the counterfeiters but like drug cheats they are normally one step ahead of the game .
    There is nothing stopping the Chinese from doing a JV with one of the IWI to use their land and labour to produce Manuka honey for them .Comvita to quote you "is just another brand" nothing unique .... so much so that the average punter in the UK doesn't know he is buying fake product .....

  9. #1009
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Ogg you don't buy the competition argument , I don't buy the " Comvita will just continue to dominate this market forever" If Comvita are dominating the market why aren't they making serious money ? Why is the S/p half what it was ?
    Do you realise at one stage there was more "Manuka" honey for sale in the UK then gets produced in NZ each year ..... and I thought most of it got exported to China ... So it's being ripped off everywhere . I understand they have taken measures to stop the counterfeiters but like drug cheats they are normally one step ahead of the game .
    There is nothing stopping the Chinese from doing a JV with one of the IWI to use their land and labour to produce Manuka honey for them .Comvita to quote you "is just another brand" nothing unique .... so much so that the average punter in the UK doesn't know he is buying fake product .....
    They are dominating the market in terms of their brand and position, but yeah, they're not making serious money yet for two reasons:

    1) Trouble getting their product direct to the Chinese consumer.
    2) Trouble making enough high quality product.

    In other words, the problems are coming from the supply side, not the demand side.

    This is what happened...Basically, back in the day, they only exported to Australia, UK, and USA. Then all of a sudden demand from China "sky rocketed". HOWEVER, just like what Ebay, Google, and Amazon experienced, the Chinese market is difficult to deal with and understand. Doing business there is completely different. This so called "daigou" channel developed, where people would full suitcases up with stock and small businesses would import goods through the so called "grey channel". This is why the stock price went up to $12. Then all of a sudden, the Chinese regulators had enough, and imposed new regulations. That's why the stock price went down.

    Some companies like A2 Milk have done better because they understand the "daigou" channel more, where as other companies like Bellemy's didn't, so that's why their stock got hammered. This is also why Comvita have done the JV with the Chinese company, to try and improve access to the market through their network. I don't really know what went wrong, or how to fix it, I just know that Comvita have had a hard time lately. It's some how a combination of contacts, ecommerce, partnerships, and networks, that is required to some how break the Chinese market. That's why this Chinese company probably wants to buy it, because it has the secret to opening up the Chinese market, because well, it's Chinese.

    If you look at the history of A2 Milk it was very "rocky" for many years, it went into administration at one stage. It's only recently that it's sales and profit has increased substantially. I think they understand the Chinese market better. I believe Comvita can have the same success as A2 if it fixes the two problems above.

    Re second problem. Making more quality product is largely weather dependent but also more investment, and R&D is needed etc. This problem will fix itself.

    Re counterfeiting, that's always a problem and always has been. Nike has the same problem so does Microsoft. This is just a side issue.

    Re a JV with some other company or IWI. I doubt that will happen. This goes back to understanding the Chinese market. The Chinese consumers want the brand Comvita. They're all about reputation over there. It's like a status thing. It's sort of like what Apple has in the US.

    At the end of the day, I just know these Chinese will pay up to $15 per share for this. It's just a matter of not getting short changed and squeezing them for every cent.
    Last edited by Ogg; 19-04-2018 at 12:40 AM.

  10. #1010
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    52-week range 5.14 - 9.21
    Thank you for some quality discussion. These stocks are having some support in one of the longest bull markets. When bear market set, definitely, some stocks will fall more than others and will adjust according to the market situation and according to the demand and supply. Fundamentally weak stocks could fall below 52 week high once bear set. It could happen in 2019/20.

    Investors buy stock mainly for two reasons. They are growth or great value.

    Is Convita ideal for both bull and bear market? Will it go below its 52 week low or will it bounce back if market becomes strong again?

    If I am correct pumpin patch expanded stores in the American region at the wrong time. I found another company has opened stores in these region and they are not doing well. Tegel is having some short term issues. They have to be strong competitor. Success of a company cannot measure by following few quarter or few years. If we follow companies at least five years,we can get some idea about their story and outlook. Food stocks should do well in global markets in the coming decade but not all companies will perform in the same manner. Strong balance sheet firms will stand out from the rest.

    I like stock for all seasons but I don’t like to overpay for any stock as I have made mistakes in markets.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 19-04-2018 at 07:50 PM.

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