Comvita - CVT

[Ogg]

Dreams are free of course.

I can't help it if gullible kiwis fall for this simple price manipulation tactic. Just lol if it drops to $4 then the take over happens at $5. If this was a private company it would be done and dusted by now.

The last take over attempt the buyers were complaining about the price, look what happened.

The smart thing to do would be to buy this dip. Sun Tzu 101 stuff here...

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"

"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."

[Balance]

I can't help it if gullible kiwis fall for this simple price manipulation tactic. Just lol if it drops to $4 then the take over happens at $5. If this was a private company it would be done and dusted by now.

The last take over attempt the buyers were complaining about the price, look what happened.

The smart thing to do would be to buy this dip. Sun Tzu 101 stuff here...

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"

"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."

Yes, and Cerebos must be thanking their lucky stars they did not pay the $4.50 the directors wanted at that time!

No Chinese is going to take over this dog - you read it here first.

There's plenty of manuka honey players out there now for them to buy - the ants, remember?

[winner69]

I can't help it if gullible kiwis fall for this simple price manipulation tactic. Just lol if it drops to $4 then the take over happens at $5. If this was a private company it would be done and dusted by now.

The last take over attempt the buyers were complaining about the price, look what happened.

The smart thing to do would be to buy this dip. Sun Tzu 101 stuff here...

"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"

"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."

All warfare is based on deception. ....maybe the war s between CVT and its shareholders

and I like this one because at times I'm appear to be a bit thick

Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.

[Balance]

All warfare is based on deception. ....maybe the war s between CVT and its shareholders

and I like this one because at times I'm appear to be a bit thick

Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.

Surely not! You cannot be applying that to we know who?

[Ogg]

Yes, and Cerebos must be thanking their lucky stars they did not pay the $4.50 the directors wanted at that time!

No Chinese is going to take over this dog - you read it here first.

There's plenty of manuka honey players out there now for them to buy - the ants, remember?

What happened to your $3 downside if it didn't go through?

Why would they buy shares at $10 and $7.20, then pull out after months of negotiating. They're not gonna buy another manuka company when they can get the best (and frankly only genuine one in the eyes of the Chinese consumer) for a huge discount.

[Ogg]

Surely not! You cannot be applying that to we know who?

Who else would it be?

[Balance]

What happened to your $3 downside if it didn't go through?

Why would they buy shares at $10 and $7.20, then pull out after months of negotiating. They're not gonna buy another manuka company when they can get the best (and frankly only genuine one in the eyes of the Chinese consumer) for a huge discount.

Wait for it - the short covering buyers need to lock in their profits first.

Only CVT board and you believe in that nonsense of Comvita being the only genuine manuka honey - but hi, Comvita obviously have a few believers of that notion out there!

Fact is that the other players are selling heaps now via the health and souvenir shops/outlets to China buyers.

The ants, remember?


PS. Never seen such big ants in my life!

[Ogg]

Wait for it - the short covering buyers need to lock in their profits first.

Only CVT board and you believe in that nonsense.

The ants, remember?

Like I said before, if the price drops they'll want it even more, this is a done deal either way.

The stock is not gonna drop. For a food company sub $300m MC making a profit. It won't happen.

What we need now is some Kiwi investors with some balls with the long term vision of it's founder.

[Balance]

Like I said before, if the price drops they'll want it even more, this is a done deal either way.

The stock is not gonna drop. For a food company sub $300m MC making a profit. It won't happen.

What we need now is some Kiwi investors with some balls with the long term vision of it's founder.

Yup - the ants remember?

[Beagle]

What a shocking and perennial disappointer this company has been. It would appear the company can only earn ~ $17m when all their weather stars align and in a normal weather year, (read less favorable than historical averages due to climate change) the company is somewhere around $10m which is really quite pathetic.
At the mid point of their forecast $9.5m on 45.57m shares that gives EPS of just 20.85 cps.
Now...you tell me what the right PE is given this is clearly an agricultural share with more than its fair share of risks, Murtle Rust forgotten by anyone ?
Talk of growth over the years has amounted to just that, Talk.

My standard time tested approach with cyclical argi companies is to apply a default PE of 10 and then adjust for other factors such as potential growth in various aspects of their business. In my opinion there would have to be really major synergies and cost cutting involved by any company looking to acquire Comvita to justify anything like the current share price and I note with due diligence already quite protracted there can be no assurance whatsoever regarding the possible outcome, indeed with this latest blow to their guidance on top of all the other guidance fiasco's in recent years its quite possible the potential buyer could run for the hills, I know I would !

I would rate this company a SELL.

Posted 16 April. I think the directors aspirations in terms of value ignore the elephant in the room that this is an agricultural stock carrying massive weather risks.
I am not at all surprised that the interested party has walked away after yet another downgrade fiasco of Titanic proportions.
I think fair value is a VERY LONG WAY south of the current SP and obviously the interested party agrees however I would not be an investor at any price because I have no respect for management or the board after multiple year fiasco's with their forecasting.
Looks like the NZX will be stuck with this lemon for the foreseeable future.

Ogg should be very thankful for some very sage advice by some wise old heads on this thread.