-
22-01-2020, 08:53 AM
#1531
Hey Lease ...the new CEO finally got Methven over the line
might do the same for Comvita
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
-
22-01-2020, 09:36 AM
#1532
the new ceo did alright job at methven , sales increased every yr not by a huge amount but what do you expect in the business there in , earnings growth was not that good though could have done better.
his first job as ceo should be replacing the chairman who has done a terrible job
one step ahead of the herd
-
22-01-2020, 09:43 AM
#1533
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by Lease
Hopefully new CEO is able to sort out the issues.
In terms of valuation, CVT is definitely undervalued. In 2011, Cerebos offered $2.5 to acquire CVT. That time independent valuation showed CVT was worth $3.4-$4.0.
Now CVT revenue has increased by 1.2 times, profit(2018) up by 15 times, net assets up by 1.4 times. Yet SP is still under $3.
Plus CVT have successfully entered China which is the world largest consumer market. Can CVT perform like A2? not expect so but its SP should be doubled.
total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report
one step ahead of the herd
-
22-01-2020, 10:24 AM
#1534
Member
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
You forget that CVT had at that stage a huge and in no way justifiable hype premium for selling a miracle cure against every possible ailment. By now reality caught up and the market knows that they sell just another boring agricultural product without any particular health properties (well, not different from any other honey). Much of their product does not even comply with the standards for Manuka honey. Market has seen as well board and management consistently acting and forecasting over years in a highly incompetent manner.
Even if the 2011 valuation had anything to do with reality (what I doubt) - the facts have changed since then.
I see a poorly run agricultural producer with a forward PE (2019 to 2022) of around 600! This must be the order of magnitude google and amazon are running on, but they are both growth companies with management knowing what they are doing ![Smile_2](images/smilies/001_smile.gif) ;
Even if I ignore for them the disaster years 2019 (and 2018 and 2017 which according to management all have been "one offs" which never will happen again) and assume against all reason that from now on they will deliver what a bunch of overoptimistic analysts seems to believe - an average EPS of 21 cents for 2020 to 2022 (remember, this is only if the weather conditions will be perfect which is unheard of for this company), they might be worth a PE of 10 - say $2.10 per share.
However - given that there is the real world and a bunch of managers who failed again and again ... If you are a betting man, I think there might be better horses around to bet on.
CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.
CVT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share Price |
% |
EPS |
|
PE Ratio |
|
|
Low |
High |
Low-High |
|
|
Low |
High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
2.5 |
3.4 |
36% |
0.14 |
|
17.8571 |
24.2857 |
2019 |
|
2.92 |
6.7 |
129% |
-0.6105 |
|
|
|
2018 |
|
5.6 |
9.21 |
64% |
0.1825 |
|
30.68 |
50.47 |
2017 |
|
5.14 |
12 |
133% |
0.2374 |
|
21.65 |
50.55 |
2016 |
|
3.92 |
13 |
232% |
0.4691 |
|
8.36 |
27.71 |
2015 |
|
2.95 |
4.16 |
41% |
0.2988 |
|
9.87 |
13.92 |
2014 |
|
3.3 |
4.25 |
29% |
0.2612 |
|
12.63 |
16.27 |
2013 |
|
2.6 |
4.28 |
65% |
0.2571 |
|
10.11 |
16.65 |
2012 |
|
1.45 |
2.95 |
103% |
0.291 |
|
4.98 |
10.14 |
2011 |
|
1.35 |
2.8 |
107% |
0.0182 |
|
74.18 |
153.85 |
2010 |
|
0.73 |
2 |
174% |
0.1809 |
|
4.04 |
11.06 |
2009 |
|
0.8 |
2.32 |
190% |
0.0271 |
|
29.52 |
85.61 |
2008 |
|
1.43 |
4.1 |
187% |
-0.1704 |
|
|
|
2007 |
|
2.6 |
4.1 |
58% |
0.155 |
|
16.77 |
26.45 |
2006 |
|
2 |
2.56 |
28% |
0.123 |
|
16.26 |
20.81 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average EPS |
|
|
|
0.12289 |
|
|
|
Average Spread |
|
|
110% |
|
|
239.06 |
483.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
/12 |
/12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average PE |
|
|
19.9217 |
40.29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2
-
22-01-2020, 10:25 AM
#1535
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by bull....
total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report
Just remind us - which proportion of these "'assets" is the huge amount of honey they have stored (I think close to one years harvest?) and at what price point is this "asset" in their books? Will they ever be able to realize book value given the burst of the Manuka bubble and increased competition from Australia?
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
-
22-01-2020, 10:25 AM
#1536
Member
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by bull....
total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report
A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...
-
22-01-2020, 10:28 AM
#1537
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by Lease
CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.
CVT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share Price |
% |
EPS |
|
PE Ratio |
|
|
Low |
High |
Low-High |
|
|
Low |
High |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2020 |
|
2.5 |
3.4 |
36% |
0.14 |
|
17.8571 |
24.2857 |
2019 |
|
2.92 |
6.7 |
129% |
-0.6105 |
|
|
|
2018 |
|
5.6 |
9.21 |
64% |
0.1825 |
|
30.68 |
50.47 |
2017 |
|
5.14 |
12 |
133% |
0.2374 |
|
21.65 |
50.55 |
2016 |
|
3.92 |
13 |
232% |
0.4691 |
|
8.36 |
27.71 |
2015 |
|
2.95 |
4.16 |
41% |
0.2988 |
|
9.87 |
13.92 |
2014 |
|
3.3 |
4.25 |
29% |
0.2612 |
|
12.63 |
16.27 |
2013 |
|
2.6 |
4.28 |
65% |
0.2571 |
|
10.11 |
16.65 |
2012 |
|
1.45 |
2.95 |
103% |
0.291 |
|
4.98 |
10.14 |
2011 |
|
1.35 |
2.8 |
107% |
0.0182 |
|
74.18 |
153.85 |
2010 |
|
0.73 |
2 |
174% |
0.1809 |
|
4.04 |
11.06 |
2009 |
|
0.8 |
2.32 |
190% |
0.0271 |
|
29.52 |
85.61 |
2008 |
|
1.43 |
4.1 |
187% |
-0.1704 |
|
|
|
2007 |
|
2.6 |
4.1 |
58% |
0.155 |
|
16.77 |
26.45 |
2006 |
|
2 |
2.56 |
28% |
0.123 |
|
16.26 |
20.81 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average EPS |
|
|
|
0.12289 |
|
|
|
Average Spread |
|
|
110% |
|
|
239.06 |
483.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
/12 |
/12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average PE |
|
|
19.9217 |
40.29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2
Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
-
22-01-2020, 10:29 AM
#1538
Some of their skin care products are exceptionally good, their management and governance on the other hand...
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
22-01-2020, 10:32 AM
#1539
Member
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).
Hahahaha, CVT always overpriced. Why can't they keep overpriced? If someone launch take over bid, if some good stories from China or North America...........................
-
22-01-2020, 10:33 AM
#1540
![Quote](images/misc/quote_icon.png) Originally Posted by kiwidollabill
A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...
take out the good will and its still over $5
one step ahead of the herd
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks