Comvita - CVT

[winner69]

Hey Lease ...the new CEO finally got Methven over the line

might do the same for Comvita

[bull....]

the new ceo did alright job at methven , sales increased every yr not by a huge amount but what do you expect in the business there in , earnings growth was not that good though could have done better.

his first job as ceo should be replacing the chairman who has done a terrible job

[bull....]

Hopefully new CEO is able to sort out the issues.

In terms of valuation, CVT is definitely undervalued. In 2011, Cerebos offered $2.5 to acquire CVT. That time independent valuation showed CVT was worth $3.4-$4.0.

Now CVT revenue has increased by 1.2 times, profit(2018) up by 15 times, net assets up by 1.4 times. Yet SP is still under $3.

Plus CVT have successfully entered China which is the world largest consumer market. Can CVT perform like A2? not expect so but its SP should be doubled.

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

[Lease]

You forget that CVT had at that stage a huge and in no way justifiable hype premium for selling a miracle cure against every possible ailment. By now reality caught up and the market knows that they sell just another boring agricultural product without any particular health properties (well, not different from any other honey). Much of their product does not even comply with the standards for Manuka honey. Market has seen as well board and management consistently acting and forecasting over years in a highly incompetent manner.

Even if the 2011 valuation had anything to do with reality (what I doubt) - the facts have changed since then.

I see a poorly run agricultural producer with a forward PE (2019 to 2022) of around 600! This must be the order of magnitude google and amazon are running on, but they are both growth companies with management knowing what they are doing;

Even if I ignore for them the disaster years 2019 (and 2018 and 2017 which according to management all have been "one offs" which never will happen again) and assume against all reason that from now on they will deliver what a bunch of overoptimistic analysts seems to believe - an average EPS of 21 cents for 2020 to 2022 (remember, this is only if the weather conditions will be perfect which is unheard of for this company), they might be worth a PE of 10 - say $2.10 per share.

However - given that there is the real world and a bunch of managers who failed again and again ... If you are a betting man, I think there might be better horses around to bet on.

CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.

CVT
		Share Price		%	EPS		PE Ratio
		Low	High	Low-High			Low	High
2020		2.5	3.4	36%	0.14		17.8571	24.2857
2019		2.92	6.7	129%	-0.6105
2018		5.6	9.21	64%	0.1825		30.68	50.47
2017		5.14	12	133%	0.2374		21.65	50.55
2016		3.92	13	232%	0.4691		8.36	27.71
2015		2.95	4.16	41%	0.2988		9.87	13.92
2014		3.3	4.25	29%	0.2612		12.63	16.27
2013		2.6	4.28	65%	0.2571		10.11	16.65
2012		1.45	2.95	103%	0.291		4.98	10.14
2011		1.35	2.8	107%	0.0182		74.18	153.85
2010		0.73	2	174%	0.1809		4.04	11.06
2009		0.8	2.32	190%	0.0271		29.52	85.61
2008		1.43	4.1	187%	-0.1704
2007		2.6	4.1	58%	0.155		16.77	26.45
2006		2	2.56	28%	0.123		16.26	20.81
Average EPS					0.12289
Average Spread				110%			239.06	483.48
							/12	/12
				Average PE			19.9217	40.29

So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2

[BlackPeter]

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

Just remind us - which proportion of these "'assets" is the huge amount of honey they have stored (I think close to one years harvest?) and at what price point is this "asset" in their books? Will they ever be able to realize book value given the burst of the Manuka bubble and increased competition from Australia?

[kiwidollabill]

total assets per share was $6.20 last annual report

A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...

[BlackPeter]

CVT never valued at PE low of 10. My statistics as follows.

CVT
		Share Price		%	EPS		PE Ratio
		Low	High	Low-High			Low	High
2020		2.5	3.4	36%	0.14		17.8571	24.2857
2019		2.92	6.7	129%	-0.6105
2018		5.6	9.21	64%	0.1825		30.68	50.47
2017		5.14	12	133%	0.2374		21.65	50.55
2016		3.92	13	232%	0.4691		8.36	27.71
2015		2.95	4.16	41%	0.2988		9.87	13.92
2014		3.3	4.25	29%	0.2612		12.63	16.27
2013		2.6	4.28	65%	0.2571		10.11	16.65
2012		1.45	2.95	103%	0.291		4.98	10.14
2011		1.35	2.8	107%	0.0182		74.18	153.85
2010		0.73	2	174%	0.1809		4.04	11.06
2009		0.8	2.32	190%	0.0271		29.52	85.61
2008		1.43	4.1	187%	-0.1704
2007		2.6	4.1	58%	0.155		16.77	26.45
2006		2	2.56	28%	0.123		16.26	20.81
Average EPS					0.12289
Average Spread				110%			239.06	483.48
							/12	/12
				Average PE			19.9217	40.29

So take lowest average PE over last 14 years, CVT SP should be 20 X 0.21=4.2

Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).

[Beagle]

Some of their skin care products are exceptionally good, their management and governance on the other hand...

[Lease]

Of course was CVT always overpriced, but don't forget it lost since this time its mojo (the manuka honey hype bubble ...). You need to deduct this amount from historic PE's (still cum hype ...).

Hahahaha, CVT always overpriced. Why can't they keep overpriced? If someone launch take over bid, if some good stories from China or North America...........................

[bull....]

A fair chunk of of that is Intangibles/goodwill and other investments...

take out the good will and its still over $5