Comvita - CVT

[Joshuatree]

Tracking a companies Operating Cash Flow is one of the best financial analysis tools. Hard to hide things in the cash flow statement and it also gives a good indication of working capital management (stock, debtors etc)

Tracking Comvita’s Operating Cash Flow has been an fascinating exercise over the years.its shown on the chart.

When everybody was excited and pushed the share price up to 12 bucks or so it’s cash flow was shocking ...a sign that things weren’t so good and not aligned with company hype. I pointed out this and other things to beagle and others who were riding the share up to 12 bucks. I’m glad they listened to me.

Even when the share price was dropping Comvita was still not worth 8 bucks or 7 bucks or even 4 bucks.

Things have turned over the last 18 months ...and cash flows are looking much healthier. Maybe there is life in this dog after all,

Fascinating chart eh ...I’ve included mid year share price .."amazing how the market drove it up to 12 bucks ...great for traders though.

Wow that is quite a buzzare disconnect there. Thanks. Holding a few at $2.50 entry.

[Shareguy]

I see in another post elsewhere that Jardens have increased target price to $4.37. Any other broker upgrades?

[bull....]

I see in another post elsewhere that Jardens have increased target price to $4.37. Any other broker upgrades?

yep the bull upgrade to t/a level 4.60

[Sideshow Bob]

I see in another post elsewhere that Jardens have increased target price to $4.37. Any other broker upgrades?

Craigs are at $3.05. Apparently it is dated 25th of August.

[Shareguy]

Thanks for that . Craig’s have not updated research note yet, still shows forecast figures for 2020.

[Leftfield]

Tracking a company’s Operating Cash Flow is one of the best financial analysis tools.

Fascinating chart eh ...I’ve included mid year share price .."amazing how the market drove it up to 12 bucks ...great for traders though.

Thanks for posting Winner. Don't hold, but I like the turnaround story under current management.

[Getty]

I see in another post elsewhere that Jardens have increased target price to $4.37. Any other broker upgrades?

Shareclarity have a Discounted Cash Flow val of $4.27

[BlackPeter]

I see in another post elsewhere that Jardens have increased target price to $4.37. Any other broker upgrades?

Craigs are at $3.05. Apparently it is dated 25th of August.

Obviously - CVT's financial performance is (as we know from history) highly variable and weather dependent. Dry is bad, wet is bad, hot is bad and cold is bad either. Pretty pointless to predict a share price unless you know how the weather will be for the next 5 to 10 seasons (and that's the easy bit - nobody can predict when the Chinese move on to the next miracle cure against Covid ;

Well, I don't, none of the brokers does and, as we know from history - CVT management does not know either.

Anyway - good luck with these predictions.

[BlackPeter]

Just have a quick look through the financials:

Obviously - average PE (10 years back) still looks terrible at 32 (based on SP = $3.28) in combination with negative earnings CAGR.

Forward PE not much better (at 27.4, based on SP above) - looks like the analysts have not much joy either.

Liabilities to Assets (26.1%) looks really great , but if they need every year a CR to achieve this shareholders might not be happy ... well, I wouldn't.

Return on equity is negative 4.5%. I recon they are ahead of the reserve bank and train their owners already to get used to negative returns ... good people, Orr could learn from them.

After a bad 2018 2 losses following each other ... and hey, they still have 81 staff with a salary between 100k and 420k on their payroll.

Why do they need that many highly paid people to produce juicy losses ... but maybe this is the reason. I recon they made the wrong 90 people redundant?

Anyway - I think I can resist ... but good luck to holders ....

[nztx]

Just have a quick look through the financials:

Obviously - average PE (10 years back) still looks terrible at 32 (based on SP = $3.28) in combination with negative earnings CAGR.

Forward PE not much better (at 27.4, based on SP above) - looks like the analysts have not much joy either.

Liabilities to Assets (26.1%) looks really great , but if they need every year a CR to achieve this shareholders might not be happy ... well, I wouldn't.

Return on equity is negative 4.5%. I recon they are ahead of the reserve bank and train their owners already to get used to negative returns ... good people, Orr could learn from them.

After a bad 2018 2 losses following each other ... and hey, they still have 81 staff with a salary between 100k and 420k on their payroll.

Why do they need that many highly paid people to produce juicy losses ... but maybe this is the reason. I recon they made the wrong 90 people redundant?

Anyway - I think I can resist ... but good luck to holders ....

Good points there