Amazing how many halfs of record growth one can have and yet see sweet fa making it to NPAT. What would this be valued at if they didn't meet growth targets one year? Probably wouldn't be pretty.
Amazing how many halfs of record growth one can have and yet see sweet fa making it to NPAT. What would this be valued at if they didn't meet growth targets one year? Probably wouldn't be pretty.
Yes I’m disappointed. They had plenty of inventory unless the 2nd half really is going to be a game changer. What’s the bet that they did due diligence on king honey. If so we have had a lucky escape.
I will give them the benefit of the doubt but if second half is more of the same then I’m out.
Cash is king they say ---- you're in business to generate decent cash flows. After all valuations are essentially what cash flows a business can generate over time.
My morbid fascination with Comvita's cash flows continues. Tracking this has done we well over the years. Share price was 12 bucks not that long but they were burning cash big time so not a good investment .... once they demonstrated that generating decent cash flows was good it was a good time to buy (cheap).
What worries me is the hype coming out of the company these days echos that of pre 2018. You'd think record quarters, things going well around the world blah blah would see them having strong cash flows. OK stockpiling inventory but they were doing that when the share price was 12 bucks.
Hope that they haven't gone the hyping the company up but not generating any cash path again - invariably ends in tears
But this time they've got the metaverse and virtual reality so things will be OK .... won't it?
Anyway - here's our their cash flows are tracking - operational cash flows and free cash flows excluding acquisitions (which have been $16m over the last 4 years). Welcome to draw your own conclusions.
Last edited by winner69; 24-02-2022 at 04:05 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Yes Winner, you did say much the same back in 2015/2016 when the share price was well over $10 with all the hype and getting into the NZX50, I'm glad I listened to you back then and cashed in my profits before the share price collapsed.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Free trade deal with UK - a win for honey exports to UK. NZ’s 3rd biggest honey export market and UK’s second largest honey supplier behind China(!).
"Our largest export to the UK is wine – approximately $500 million. Overnight $14m of wine tariffs will evaporate. New Zealand's honey exporters will no longer face a $16 duty for every $100 worth of honey they send to the UK,"
You would of thought the UK market was a big opportunity. I asked a question on the conference call last year and David stated the UK was not a focus. It seems all thier eggs are in China and North America. In fact latest Uk, Europe ect half year sales reported went down to $2.9m.
Yes I’m disappointed. They had plenty of inventory unless the 2nd half really is going to be a game changer. What’s the bet that they did due diligence on king honey. If so we have had a lucky escape.
I will give them the benefit of the doubt but if second half is more of the same then I’m out.
Interesting about the inventory increase.
Talked to a honey exporter (to China) from Hamilton over the weekend. He said that the market is picking up for manuka honey there and even to a certain extent for multi flora manuka. Problem is sourcing enough manuka honey as the big boys (presumably this includes Comvita) have been buying from under financial stress beekeepers and building up their stock. He finds the situation frustrating as his company is a small player and does have the financial resources to carry too much inventory.
So I am with you - let’s see if Comvita has strategically taken the opportunity of surplus supply in the market to build up stock and realise the stock in the next 6 months.
Originally Posted by Walter
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