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I think the smart money is on to it.
This company will struggle going forward that is why the price is going down.
one step ahead of the herd
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Agree with you Nevl the latest profit announcement was very positive and there should be some upside very soon with their niche market and American approvals in place. I'm averaging down against the TA advice I know.
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Hi PiB, here are some trading rules that you might like to take a look at. The first 2 are the most important, but you will see that most are directly applicable to your case.
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Member
Latest announcement good?
Not by my calculations mon. Here's what they've been saying:
June 2008: "We expect net profit for the year ending 31 March 2009 to be in the range $2.0-$2.5m."
Nov 2008: "We are not confident of meeting the $2.0-$2.5m target."
Feb 2009: "We still expect to post a positive year end result."
Looks like a series of downgrades to me mon, at a time when the NZ$ has sank quite rapidly and CVT should be big beneficiaries given that 80% of its earnings are now derived offshore.
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Am I reading a different announcement
Trying not to be too cynical here but there are no actual numbers.
"We expect to post a positive year end profit result. We have a good working relationship with our bankers, Westpac, and have recently rolled over our long term debt positions"
can be translated as
We should make a profit but don't bet the farm on it, and the bank reckons they can get their money back at this stage.
regards
Paper Tiger
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I like the branding and products of Comvita.
They now need to get their act together and reduce cost. This can be a good long term portfolio stock if they can crack the Chinese market. It is a big ask, but patience is the key.
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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Member
cvt annual report
wasn't sure whether to bump this or the hillarious kill carmel CVT thread but this one seems most 'on topic'.
http://www.investor.comvita.com/ - annual report is out today.
makes for interesting reading. Doesn't seem like much new information - board as been stressing a create sh value mantra for a wee while now.
Can't aregue with their big sales growth though - or is this all by acquisition?
As a long term holder - bought pre-ipo and regret not selling at 270. I should have remembered the rules:
1. growth co's are often overvalued due to analyst optimisim
2. ipos usually underperform once ititial buying has subsided
anyone care to comment on the result and whether this co is a buy hold or sell and why
cheers
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CVT Chart
Originally Posted by modandm
Anyone care to comment on the result and whether this co is a buy hold or sell and why?
This chart is an update of the one posted here almost exactly 6 months ago - the indicators are the same and all parameters are the same. (So let's have no accusations of hindsight eh?) Anyone following these indicators would have bought CVT at around 76 cents on the basis of the trendline break, which was confirmed at that time by an OBV trendline break. The other, more conservative indicators featured here triggered much later, as you would expect. The 200 day EMA (as used by very conservative investors) worked surprisingly well, getting them out reasonably early (at around $3.80) and, more importantly, keeping them out as CVT's downtrend continued.
Pay close attention here to the movement of the Big Money (assumed to be the "smart" money.) Notice the particularly timely exit. They bailed before the downtrend got under way. Notice also the very timely entrance at 83 cents. Anyone selling when the smart money did and re-entering when the smart money did would have done pretty well. Now, the "smart" money is assumed to have more knowledge than "retail" investors. Mug-punters like us can never hope to know as much as insiders. Theoretically this puts us at a distinct disadvantage. But does it?
Look at the trendline-break and OBV trendline-break Sell signals here. BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" exit by nearly a month. Look at the recent trendline-break and OBV trendline-break 76 cent Buy signals. Again, BOTH of these preceded the "smart money" 83 cent entry by nearly a month. Kindergarten level TA outperformed the smart money by a handsome margin.
Spare a thought here for the poor fundamentalists. Forbidden by their faith from utilising TA, they miss out on all this useful information on market sentiment and are forced to rely on dated company reports for their analysis. This makes it very difficult indeed for the poor sods to buy anywhere near the bottom - let alone sell anywhere near the top. The annual report that came out today is reasonably positive but the shareprice began moving up over 3 months ago and has now risen over 70% from its lows. Time for the fundies to buy perhaps?
Technically, CVT was a Buy 3 months ago. Right now it is a Hold.
Modandm had made a good profit on CVT but lack of any exit strategy meant that this was all given back to the market. Their initial investment is now worth half what is was.
Market sentiment is at least as important as analysts "valuations".
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Thats beautiful Phaedrus but sleep light. The fundies will be coming for ya with torches and pitch forks in hand.
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Picture tells it all eh Phaedrus
Modandm mentioned the kill carmel thread whatever that is but the last big spike in volume was Carmels last throw of the dice with CVT.
In the period 20/5 to 10/6 Fishers sold down the last 2 mill odd shares at an average price of 75.6 cents .... so one could say that once again Fishers lost heaps on quitting a position they didn't like too hold any more
But what a bargain for those since ... now 50% plus up since they bailed.
Suppose this could sort of be a case of techos following the fundies in reverse .... fundie saying no value left so techos pouncing
Would have to think that the price will continue to rise more
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