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 Disc - Sold Immediatly
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/246731.pdf
Main points:-
Very difficult trading conditions in first quarter. Ouch
Expecting a loss in the first half to 31 December - Double Ouch !
Expecting net profit for FY17 to be broadly similar to FY16 - Triple ouch, no profit growth on the back of increased share capital = EPS reduction !
Target of $400m annual sales has "very conveniently" been pushed out to 2021, from 2020.
Not impressed that they didn't front foot the whole regulatory issue in China properly much earlier.
At least they have taken the positive step of culling staff, (obviously this is a good step by management) but its fair to say the company is experiencing significant growing pains.
I expect the SP to under-perform until they can prove they can regain growth momentum.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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 Originally Posted by Roger
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/246731.pdf
Main points:-
Very difficult trading conditions in first quarter. Ouch
Expecting a loss in the first half to 31 December - Double Ouch !
Expecting net profit for FY17 to be broadly similar to FY16 - Triple ouch, no profit growth on the back of increased share capital = EPS reduction !
Target of $400m annual sales has "very conveniently" been pushed out to 2021, from 2020.
Not impressed that they didn't front foot the whole regulatory issue in China properly much earlier.
At least they have taken the positive step of culling staff, (obviously this is a good step by management) but its fair to say the company is experiencing significant growing pains.
I expect the SP to under-perform until they can prove they can regain growth momentum.
Makes sense. Good on you for selling fast - no material offers left.
Agree - the last quarter was shocking - I don't dare to extrapolate the numbers to a full year. On the bright side ... maybe now I can buy the shares for $4 as I always intended?
Discl: not holding and hey, my broker is an optimist. They rejected my $4 order for CVT. Apparently I am too far away from the market price  . Sigh - lets try again tomorrow;
Last edited by BlackPeter; 26-10-2016 at 03:33 PM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Makes sense. Good on you for selling fast - no material offers left.
Agree - the last quarter was shocking - I don't dare to extrapolate the numbers to a full year. On the bright side ... maybe now I can buy the shares for $4 as I always intended?
I said about Six months ago that people need to be careful trading this stock, itt has very poor liquidity, which was masked by the recent interest in the company. Any bad news could make it very difficult to get money out at a decent price.
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Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Makes sense. Good on you for selling fast - no material offers left.
Agree - the last quarter was shocking - I don't dare to extrapolate the numbers to a full year. On the bright side ... maybe now I can buy the shares for $4 as I always intended?
Discl: not holding and hey, my broker is an optimist. They rejected my $4 order for CVT. Apparently I am too far away from the market price . Sigh - lets try again tomorrow;
Thanks. Not sure about $4 but I think the buyers with a 9 as the first number are pretty "brave".
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Roger
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/246731.pdf
Main points:-
Very difficult trading conditions in first quarter. Ouch
Expecting a loss in the first half to 31 December - Double Ouch !
Expecting net profit for FY17 to be broadly similar to FY16 - Triple ouch, no profit growth on the back of increased share capital = EPS reduction !
Target of $400m annual sales has "very conveniently" been pushed out to 2021, from 2020.
Not impressed that they didn't front foot the whole regulatory issue in China properly much earlier.
At least they have taken the positive step of culling staff, (obviously this is a good step by management) but its fair to say the company is experiencing significant growing pains.
I expect the SP to under-perform until they can prove they can regain growth momentum.
Nothing in this is a surprise - as pointed out the inventory build, drop in receivables and new distribution agreements sent clear message. Not to mention redundancies.
Further - for a legitimate business to talk about the ' recovery with the traders operating in informal channels adjust to new rules' as upside......... seriously that's the distribution path?
No surprise but disappointing nevertheless. Least they have SEA to fall back on.
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Mind you the $17.1m npat this year will be 12 months v 15 months last year - so you could call it profit growth
But then again last year was $17.2m for 12 months to March and then a small loss for the April/June period.
Loss for H117 means a loss for a 9 month period (April to December) ....hmmmm
Something just doesnt seem to add up
Last edited by winner69; 27-10-2016 at 03:16 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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One other thought
If H117 is a loss (how much not stated) and FY17 going to be $17m that means H217 going to be (heaps?) more than $17m ......compared to say $8m in H216
Now that's super duper growth .....all back on track
No worries
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Chart not looking healthy.... MA's about to form 'death cross'. Take care holders.
Attachment 8408
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Originally Posted by winner69
One other thought
If H117 is a loss (how much not stated) and FY17 going to be $17m that means H217 going to be (heaps?) more than $17m ......compared to say $8m in H216
Now that's super duper growth .....all back on track
No worries
One down grade at a time - the Fonterra model. Never put off until tomorrow what you can put off until the day after tomorrow.
The only way they will get close to that figure will be on the back of shipping massive amounts of stock to the new distributors - on very favourable terms. Filling the pipeline isn't the same as maintaining the pipeline (its the same as same store growth in retail companies) so watch for some ongoing volatility before things settle.
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Member
Just been to meeting. Continuing to hold . I feel they have addressed the problem in China with the latest arrangement at 10.60. A good share with a long term strategy. The access to market problem is reajusting. Mr Bunt was there.
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