Comvita - CVT

[percy]

So npat about $17m for 2 years in a row - where's the growth?

Thats 42 cents a share

Say a PE of 12 is fair enough- that's $5.04 ......hmmm

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm sounds about right.hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

[trader_jackson]

I'm sure a while back when they first mentioned that the chinese restrictions "would have no impact" on sales (or something to that effect) in a NZ Herald article that I explained on here how I could not believe they could make this assumption less than a day after something in china changed(restrictions tightened)... I was sure I posted my thoughts on here, but can't find it so maybe just discussed with a friend... and well what do we have here today... a fall in sales revenue due to china leading to a loss? as percy says.... hmmmmm!

I have refrained from posting on TIL for a while, but I wonder if the TIL thread has learnt anything from this?

[Snow Leopard]

Look Harder

Has the stripey one noticed...

Attachment 8407

The name is Tiger, Paper Tiger.

[Apathy]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/246731.pdf

Main points:-
Very difficult trading conditions in first quarter. Ouch
Expecting a loss in the first half to 31 December - Double Ouch !
Expecting net profit for FY17 to be broadly similar to FY16 - Triple ouch, no profit growth on the back of increased share capital = EPS reduction !
Target of $400m annual sales has "very conveniently" been pushed out to 2021, from 2020.

Not impressed that they didn't front foot the whole regulatory issue in China properly much earlier.
At least they have taken the positive step of culling staff, (obviously this is a good step by management) but its fair to say the company is experiencing significant growing pains.

I expect the SP to under-perform until they can prove they can regain growth momentum.

Nothing in this is a surprise - as pointed out the inventory build, drop in receivables and new distribution agreements sent clear message. Not to mention redundancies.

Further - for a legitimate business to talk about the ' recovery with the traders operating in informal channels adjust to new rules' as upside......... seriously that's the distribution path?

No surprise but disappointing nevertheless. Least they have SEA to fall back on.

[winner69]

Mind you the $17.1m npat this year will be 12 months v 15 months last year - so you could call it profit growth

But then again last year was $17.2m for 12 months to March and then a small loss for the April/June period.

Loss for H117 means a loss for a 9 month period (April to December) ....hmmmm

Something just doesnt seem to add up

[winner69]

One other thought

If H117 is a loss (how much not stated) and FY17 going to be $17m that means H217 going to be (heaps?) more than $17m ......compared to say $8m in H216

Now that's super duper growth .....all back on track

No worries

[Beagle]

Downgrades come in three's. I'm not sure I'm all that comfortable believing their profit forecast in the circumstances. Early days to predict a profit similar to last year when they're currently making a loss.

As Apathy pointed out the redundancies were a big clue that all was not well so I reduced my holding at that time and sold the rest very quickly yesterday.

I'm not going to try and value this one until we see more evidence of how things are tracking. Subtlety pushing out their $400m sales target to 2021 from 2020 raises serious questions about the credibility of this long range forecast in my mind.
Watch for them to push this out to 2022 next year !

[Leftfield]

Chart not looking healthy.... MA's about to form 'death cross'. Take care holders.
Attachment 8408

[King1212]

still remember clearly,,brokers recommended to highly buy CVT...well...I always do an opposite. If the brokers said..sell...I would hold....if they said buy...I would sell....

[percy]

still remember clearly,,brokers recommended to highly buy CVT...well...I always do an opposite. If the brokers said..sell...I would hold....if they said buy...I would sell....

Yet "most" brokers' research get "most" companies right.
Maybe even as high as 9 out of 10 for FNZC,8 out of 10 for Craigs and Macquaries ,and Forbar either very good or very poor.
What I do find is they often see a company a bit different from the way I see a company,so all research is very helpful.