Comvita - CVT

[Beagle]

I'm getting word in that things aren't great for the industry.....
The grey channels into China are being shut down (which Comvita is heavily reliant on)
Total China sales are down 20-30%
Alot of inventory is sitting around at the moment (both in NZ and in CHN), with heavy discounting going on.

Dont want to beat the war-drum but I don't see the 1H loss as a 'blip'

Downgrades come in three's and we've only had one so far. Disc - don't hold, chart tells you everything you need to know.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Went and took a visitor to a souvenir shop in the city to buy some manuka honey to take home overseas.

Hey Balance,
Which shop would this be? i would like to scope it out myself and check them later again after the holiday period


edit: As it is Christmas / Gift times. i believe that Manuka honey falls into that category where people buy it for the sake of not knowing what to buy for gifts to take overseas etc. (basically what someone mentioned in the TIL thread).
There is also a big brand and products expo in Hong Kong that is currently running from 10th Dec till 2nd Jan. Comvita has a spot in this which looks nicely presented
Attachment 8541

[winner69]

Downgrades come in three's and we've only had one so far. Disc - don't hold, chart tells you everything you need to know.

Aren't they forecasting a stellar second half year performance

[horus1]

Good share Where i think they differ from some others are that the chinese cos whe are distributers and retail have a direct shareholding. They are not just dependent on e channels,still at $12 I thought they were overpriced. Held for years and just top up now and again.

[Beagle]

Aren't they forecasting a stellar second half year performance

I for one am not "buying it", their story that is, (some of their products are very good IMO). I think after the incident I am sure we can all recall when the CEO Mr Coulter initially said, (wasn't it about mid 2016 ?) the Chinese grey import changes were having no effect..and now we see in the current half they've shifted all the way from that infamous outlook statement to now a forecast loss for goodness sake ! What possible confidence can we have that they can forecast such a strong recovery in 2H profit ? Remember Mr Coulter has only been CEO for just over 12 months (appointed 1 October 2015). I'm very skeptical and I don't think he's done nearly enough to earn the market's trust, in fact quite the opposite. I think the whole thing was handled very, very badly from a shareholder relations perspective.
The fact that they are talking their new Chinese partner's joint venture as a way of "mitigating" the effect of tax changes gives a clear heads-up as to the seriousness of the issue and how badly they got it wrong earlier this year. Their forecasting credibility is now very much in question, (at least in my mind). All the risk appears to be to the downside...(I could almost write their excuse report for them, (Chinese tax changes caused more of an effect than we thought...counter balancing new J.V. Chinese partner positive impact taking longer to bed in and flow through, currency impact, sluggishness in Chinese consumer spending e.t.c., e.t.c. e.t.c.) I also take exception to the fact that they slipped out their target year for $400m sales target from 2020 to 2021 without so much as a single word of explanation.
Odds on that target date slipping to 2022 next year, very high in my opinion.

[Balance]

Hey Balance,
Which shop would this be? i would like to scope it out myself and check them later again after the holiday period

The Best Souvenirs Company Ltd - 217 Hobson St, Auckland. Car parking in front of the shop.

Very well stocked and presented shop - they even sell dried deer and seal appendages for the ole fellow!

[stoploss]

This sort of behaviour doesn't help , could put the bee population at serious risk ..... I think this was what was linked to PSA in Kiwifruit the importation of Chinese pollen

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11770393

[Balance]

This sort of behaviour doesn't help , could put the bee population at serious risk ..... I think this was what was linked to PSA in Kiwifruit the importation of Chinese pollen

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11770393

http://naturebee.com/

Freaking counterfeiter - they must have changed their narrative of where they source their raw pollen from as the site now mentions supplies from China.

[Vaygor1]

http://naturebee.com/

Freaking counterfeiter - they must have changed their narrative of where they source their raw pollen from as the site now mentions supplies from China.

Appears these Naturebee pack of liars haven't fixed all their webpages yet... or are they now including a teaspoon of NZ pollen per tonne of Chinese pollen?
http://naturebee.com/aboutus.html

As part of their punishment, all purchasers over the entire company history should be refunded by order of the courts. After all they have not received what they were told they were getting.

[kiwidollabill]

^ Not the first time this has been done. To my knowledge, Royal Jelly is only produced by one 'small' NZ company, likely that is from China also.