Comvita - CVT

[Ogg]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ey-study-finds

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ey-study-finds

Interesting, thanks for sharing. I reckon their products are good and I believe their is a strong basis for believing they work, (honey is good for you, mentioned many times in the bible but with no reference to manuka honey). Certainly I find their medi honey product very good on extremely dry skin, nothing I have tried is anywhere near as good. The shares will be good buying at some point in the future but I will wait for the TA signals to tell me when.

[winner69]

That $1.8m was one off favourable things - they reported operating npat for full 15 months was essentially the sames 12 months to March. Last 3 months was actually $0.1m loss

So 9 months of losing money then a 100% increase in H2

I am still far from convinced they will achieve forecast, ie npat the same as F16

Share price just over 8 bucks is a fair way off highs of 13 bucks or so

Might look at the fibs to see where this decline might end.




Hasn't been this cheap for zonks - good one to have in stocktastic 2017

[winner69]

Next Fib 'support' is $7.45 (61.8% retracement)

Might be worth a serious look at that level - even though anything could happen if half year announcement is shocker

[Beagle]

Next Fib 'support' is $7.45 (61.8% retracement)

Might be worth a serious look at that level - even though anything could happen if half year announcement is shocker

Not the first half that worries me mate, that's a loss and has already be telegraphed, (compares to a $3.0m profit in 1H last year). By the time they announce the half year loss they'll probably have to update on second half prospects. I still believe downgrades come in three's. We've had the first one, the second will probably come with the half year result and probably the third one will be forced on them under the continuous disclosure requirements of the NZX somewhere close to balance date so by the time the final result comes in their earlier announcements aren't actionable. (Acknowledge this is a deeply skeptical viewpoint but remember they initially said the Chinese thing wasn't having an impact and from there it changed all the way to a loss). Surely the most plausible future announcement will center around the Chinese effects (where 60% of their product ends up), being more pronounced than earlier envisaged ? I reckon you'd be a brave man to bet on a different outcome.

Keeping powder dry for as long as it takes for clear evidence of a fresh uptrend to be established. We could still be a long way from the bottom if the truth is as ugly as I suspect it really is.

Just for fun, imagine what happens to the SP if the EPS is 30-40% down on last year ? Investors will have to seriously re-rate the PE down because the growth story is in tatters....so a much lower PE on a 30-40% earnings decline = SP potentially tanking very badly in 2017. Okay I'll speculate. SP at present is based on a PE of ~ 17 and EPS of 46.8 cps = ~ $8.00
Say the EPS tanks 40% = 28 cps. I reckon we'd see the PE contract to around 13-14, (should probably be lower with that sort of result as their credibility would be in tatters) but they will dress it up with promises of growth to resume based on XYZ but say 13.5 x 28 = $3.78. Not saying it would get that low but that's my worst case scenario which would see the SP halve from here.
(Remember that a 5% EPS decline is already baked in if by some miracle they can manage to match last year's profit as they issued 2m new shares as part of the new Chinese J.V. to quote "mitigate" the effects of tax changes in China) so is a 30-40% EPS decline really that implausible considering they made a profit in IH last year and are looking at a big loss in 1H this year ?

[winner69]

4-traders not up with play with CVT?

Eps for F17 is 52 cents and 71 cents for F18

[Beagle]

4-traders not up with play with CVT?

Eps for F17 is 52 cents and 71 cents for F18

That is strange. Two brokers with an accumulate and I a buy recommendation. Average forward estimate of EPS at a significant, nearly 10% divergence to the companies own guidance. Average 12 month price target $11.50. Expect downgrades as they follow the market down, I reckon.

I feel very strongly this is a very good stock to short on the NZX for those fortunate enough to be in a position to execute such a strategy.

[Joshuatree]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ey-study-finds

Thanks Ogg. over 82 species of leptospernum manuka in Aus to our 1 and some varieties(16%) having more UMF!. Serious comp alright and what ;vast acreages there.? And dismissing it as not a threat by saying "global demand is outstripping supply" is a bit flippant?.More supply( an explosive growth?) at higher grades from Aus could well lower prices here.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Ogg. over 82 species of leptospernum manuka in Aus to our 1 and some varieties(16%) having more UMF!. Serious comp alright and what ;vast acreages there.? And dismissing it as not a threat by saying "global demand is outstripping supply" is a bit flippant?.More supply( an explosive growth?) at higher grades from Aus could well lower prices here.

Agree - here goes the moat, if they ever had one. Probably a good time to take them from my watchlist ...

[Marilyn Munroe]

Agree - here goes the moat, if they ever had one.....

A guy in a pub told me honey from Blue Borage a wild flower common in North and Central Otago was only slightly less active than Manuka Honey.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn