Comvita - CVT

[winner69]

This lot of muppets are just as bad as the the Bellamy's lot

I think they don't have a clue whats going on.

[winner69]

Doesn't look like I will get some at 3 bucks ...or even 4 bucks today

Patience I think

[BlackPeter]

Wow - last trade $6.45 and resistance level (if you want to call it that way) is $5.75. Great example for a falling knife!

Actually - I think that Rogers valuation (around $3) looks quite fair ...

[Xerof]

This lot of muppets are just as bad as the the Bellamy's lot

I think they don't have a clue whats going on.

I think their whole supply chain is under pressure - east coast landowners are looking to take control of their honey on their own land, instead of receiving peppercorn lease income. Secondly, the explosion in hive numbers will be affecting individual apiary yields, and then you could also (perhaps) blame the weather.

batten down the hatches

[Balance]

As Bellamy's second profit downgrade showed, downgrades do come in threes so best to avoid CVT or TIL who are exposed to the China 'grey' market sales until results are out.

CVT's second profit downgrade - expect another at least if history is any guide.

There's a lot of manuka honey around - just go to any health supplement shop. Just not Comvita's.

Plus, did CVT not have very high inventory level leading into the high sales period?

[Beagle]

This lot of muppets are just as bad as the the Bellamy's lot

I think they don't have a clue whats going on.

Agree. There's now a serious question over their forecasting credibility which was already in question due to the fiasco of the way they initially handled the Chinese regulatory change crisis, (and yes it is a crisis when 60% of your sales are badly affected). Serious question too regarding the sale price of the silverware, (pretty obvious at the time CVT were driving the sale process seeing as settlement is to be effected in January so soon after the sale, I said privately to a mate that it was obvious CVT needed the money quickly from that sale).

It looks to me like the CEO Scott Coulter who has only been in his position since late 2015 is "learning on the job". Take their updated current year forecast with three grains of salt I reckon.

Balance I agree. There could well be another two forecast updates as the company will be keen to avoid any "actionable" matter. So another two changes to the forecast to come followed by the disappointment of the result itself and disappointing outlook and then shareholders can look forward to it exiting the NZX50 and the resultant effects on the SP of index tracking funds selling.

Seems to me shareholders have a LOT to "look forward too" over the next year.

[trader_jackson]

I talked to a friend about this... couldn't believe that the Comvita chief executive could turn around and make such a claim, so quickly...

For me, seemingly never ending inventory build ups (that in percentages, are consistently increasing 2-3x more than revenue increases), margin decreases, concerning cash flows, dramatic recent increase in debt, and chinese regulatory uncertainty are all important things to be considered...

However what is more alarming to me, seeing this is a growth stock, is that management seemingly don't actually know there biggest market/opportunity, china, and what is really going on... making such a direct confirmation of "no it doesn't affect us" in this nz herald article 4 weeks ago, then a 'near hidden' U turn today of "hmm maybe it does affect us, but hopefully shouldn't too much", is concerning... then the fact the share price tracked down in the days/weeks leading up to results simply doesn't help...it would appear some not-so-sweet honey leaked out early

Good luck to the holders, but I will be waiting till they can confirm they understand their key opportunity/market, they stop increasing inventory dramatically more than revenue growth, show they can keep debt under control, and get back to at least operating cash flow positive

Disclosure: was very tempted, and expected/hoped to see pretty good results, instead got shocked left, right and centre

Huge profit downgrade, still shocks me how the CEO turned around and said the china sales would have no effect (and I believe I was one of the first to point this out)... and what is worse is that they were already negative cash flow... financial statements likely to look like a bloodbath now...

Disclosure: same as 5 (nearly exactly) months ago

[forest]

This includes an unfavourable, non-operating, fair value adjustment on SeaDragon Limited (NZX:SEA) options held of $2.8m for the six months ended 31 December 2016."

It seem to me CVT management should spent some time trying to understand the business ventures they getting into. This part of the down grade has nothing to do with the weather but seemingly was a gamble into something they have little understanding of.

[Baa_Baa]

Wow - last trade $6.45 and resistance level (if you want to call it that way) is $5.75. Great example for a falling knife!

Actually - I think that Rogers valuation (around $3) looks quite fair ...

A small point but you're talking about a 'support' level, not to be confused with 'resistance'. Buyers create support levels, Sellers create resistance levels.

From a TA perspective, supports are/were at 6.35, 5.36, 4.50. Live bids show 6.35 support is under pressure now, bid 6.20 ask 6.40

$3.00 is an extreme view of support being a 100% retrace of the entire move since April 2014.

[BlackPeter]

A small point but you're talking about a 'support' level, not to be confused with 'resistance'. Buyers create support levels, Sellers create resistance levels.

From a TA perspective, supports are/were at 6.35, 5.36, 4.50. Live bids show 6.35 support is under pressure now, bid 6.20 ask 6.40

$3.00 is an extreme view of support being a 100% retrace of the entire move since April 2014.

Baa, fair enough - I wanted to say "support". I am however not talking support levels based on TA (i.e. previous lows), but just looking into the bid / sales depth. At the time of the post you referred to was $5.75 the (highest) price point with more than one offer and at least a 5 digit number of shares asked for. That's what I (falsely) called "resistance" and meant "support";