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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #601
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    A small point but you're talking about a 'support' level, not to be confused with 'resistance'. Buyers create support levels, Sellers create resistance levels.

    From a TA perspective, supports are/were at 6.35, 5.36, 4.50. Live bids show 6.35 support is under pressure now, bid 6.20 ask 6.40

    $3.00 is an extreme view of support being a 100% retrace of the entire move since April 2014.
    Why not a complete retracement back to the 2014 level ? In 2014 they made $7.6m and were talking about growth continuing like crazy. Maybe they can make that in FY18, maybe not...but what's their "growth" profile now ????

    Agree with TJ's assessment, CEO's initial reaction to the Chinese situation still shocks me, (obviously had no idea whatsoever) so what reliability does one now attach to their forecasting ability given today's major forecast meltdown ? Then there's the Sea Dragon fiasco...really this company is starting to look like a complete fiasco itself. Maybe someone's head needs to roll and appoint someone who knows what they're trying to do ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-01-2017 at 11:01 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #602
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    They say full year npat to e $20m-$22m which includes profits on selling the family silver

    No mention of a operating tax paid profit for the full year - or did I miss something
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #603
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    Was stalking this one with a view of investing but am not impressed. Poor China performance, selling key IP and now we learn that their supply situation is fragile. Management seem to be struggling. Will stay away and wish holders good luck!

  4. #604
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    They say full year npat to e $20m-$22m which includes profits on selling the family silver

    No mention of a operating tax paid profit for the full year - or did I miss something
    $5 - $7m is their new normalized operating forecast, down from $17m three months ago....soon to be revised down to approx break even IMO.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #605
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    Did it jump down much in price? Always been very illiquid stock, imagine holders had trouble selling today without a massive gapdown.

    Always said I would buy back in when it fell back to Six dollars. Time to have a think, or at least wait and see where the bottom is. I was always fearful something would happen to the Bees, with such poor trading makes it risky, the poor little buggers struggling to survive as it it , without bad weather giving them a slap.

    They have spent a lot of cash buying up producers, so they would not suffer a shortfall in supply. I dont know about how pricing works, but presumably they put the price up on the finished product during the lean years. Honey not exactly cheap as it is
    Last edited by ratkin; 23-01-2017 at 12:02 PM.

  6. #606
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    How dependent are these guys on China sales.?

  7. #607
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    i forewarned back in October it was going to get uglier and there was no way they were going to hit last years result on the back of a 6 month loss. Even mentioned SEA write down.

    These guys have been waiting to come up with an excuse and finally blamed it on the weather. I could accept that the harvest might impact next years result but not this year - particularly given their very high stocks.

    Lot of increased competition in the market so maybe supply not just about weather..?

    Lets see what the top line looks like - how does a 60% drop in raw material supply hit sales?

  8. #608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Couple of important things to note. Blackmores are still making money with the downturn, CVT aren't at present. Blackmores were $220 in January, now $103, so a fall of over 50%.

    A further thought I had today. We know last year they only made $1.3m in the last quarter where they shifted the balance date to 30 June 2016. They said this is traditionally a quiet quarter so lets assume next year's Q4 is also quiet and they make a similar result.
    We know that the company expects to make a loss for the six months to 31 December 2016.
    Are they really going to make circa $16m + whatever extra they need to make to cover first half loss...all in the first quarter of 2017 ? Is this really plausible ?

    NBR reported they made 23 staff redundant if I remember correctly. Not a huge cull from 450 is it !

    Rather than no worries W69, I'd say holders have a fair bit to be worried about.
    From 27 October when I seriously questioned their new $17m forecast. We now know their first half forecast loss is ~ $7m.

    We know last year they struggled to make $1.3m in the fourth quarter so lets assume the same that gives a result for the first two quarters and the last one of ~ ($5.7m) loss.

    Their new forecast for the year is $5 - $7m profit which by deduction suggests they think they'll make a profit of ~ $12m in the period from 1 January to 31 March 2017. Really ????????

    Having thought about this some more....I reckon grab yourself a truck load of salt for that revised forecast...remember you read it here first from me...They'll be very lucky to break even on a normalised basis for the FY17 year. Just as well they sold the silverware isn't it, they obviously needed to fire sale the IP.
    Last edited by Beagle; 23-01-2017 at 12:18 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #609
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    I was told of a High Country Runholder who was offered high fees for hosting hives by some Johny-Come-Lately bee keeper. He took the offer dumping his usual bee keeper.

    I hope he got the money up front.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
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  10. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    From 27 October when I seriously questioned their new $17m forecast. We now know their first half forecast loss is ~ $7m.

    We know last year they struggled to make $1.3m in the fourth quarter so lets assume the same that gives a result for the first two quarters and the last one of ~ ($5.7m) loss.

    Their new forecast for the year is $5 - $7m profit which by deduction suggests they think they'll make a profit of ~ $12m in the period from 1 January to 31 March 2017. Really ????????

    Having thought about this some more....I reckon grab yourself a truck load of salt for that revised forecast...remember you read it here first from me...They'll be very lucky to break even on a normalised basis for the FY17 year. Just as well they sold the silverware isn't it, they obviously needed to fire sale the IP.
    The IP firesale was treated as a positive in some quarters?

    My biggest concerns are that management do not seem to have a good grasp of what has been happening on so many fronts and the business has fundamentally changed for the worse.

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