i forewarned back in October it was going to get uglier and there was no way they were going to hit last years result on the back of a 6 month loss. Even mentioned SEA write down.
These guys have been waiting to come up with an excuse and finally blamed it on the weather. I could accept that the harvest might impact next years result but not this year - particularly given their very high stocks.
Lot of increased competition in the market so maybe supply not just about weather..?
Lets see what the top line looks like - how does a 60% drop in raw material supply hit sales?
I don't hold but the weather is a huge factor Apathy good prediction but the weather has been the biggest factor in you being correct. Looking to buy but will take wait and see approach
$5 - $7m is their new normalized operating forecast, down from $17m three months ago....soon to be revised down to approx break even IMO.
Looks like stock has shifted into severe reverse gear on earnings and sp performace.
Stock steadily climbed from $3.85 in Jan 2015 to $8.35 on ta series of profit upgrades. Example on 10 Nov 2015 : "For the six month period ending 30 September 2015, Comvita recorded an after tax profit of $3.0 million on sales of $91.1 million. With the strong result for the first six months we now expect our operating profit after tax to be in the range of $15-17 million, up 46% to 65% for 12 months to 31 March 2016, compared to the prior year."
Today's drop looks ominous so I tend to agree with Roger that there are more downsides yet - CVT is a stock best to avoid until profit trend stabilizes.
I don't hold but the weather is a huge factor Apathy good prediction but the weather has been the biggest factor in you being correct. Looking to buy but will take wait and see approach
Weather has nothing to do at all with me being correct-then or now!
Last year $230m sales on COGS $113m (lets say 50%) they started this year with just over $95m in stock...... or $190m in sales based on prior year.
It is total BS - or they have a massive stock problem of 'unsaleable' material... maybe they are picking up bad habits of SEA...... Supply constraints followed by a one off write down of stock...
i am not saying weather isn't an issue - but that pain is going to be next financial year.
Weather has nothing to do at all with me being correct-then or now!
Last year $230m sales on COGS $113m (lets say 50%) they started this year with just over $95m in stock...... or $190m in sales based on prior year.
It is total BS - or they have a massive stock problem of 'unsaleable' material... maybe they are picking up bad habits of SEA...... Supply constraints followed by a one off write down of stock...
i am not saying weather isn't an issue - but that pain is going to be next financial year.
A little birdy flying close to the ground told me they have a MASSIVE stock of low grade manuka honey product they simply cannot find a home for, for love or money....
Last edited by Beagle; 23-01-2017 at 05:55 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
A little birdy flying close to the ground told me they have a MASSIVE stock of low grade manuka honey product they simply cannot find a home for, for love or money.
Ha.....their annual report told me the same thing!;-)
So it really is SEA all over again..... they have sold all the good stuff and booked a profit but the low grade stuff sits in stock over valued........ sorry but there is plenty of demand locally for Manuka Honey - they just don't want to meet the market price.
If you are correct - board and management all need the flick. It's amateur hour - book big profits and build stock of the low grade offtake/by product at unrealistic valuations.
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Originally Posted by Apathy
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