Comvita - CVT

[Beagle]

The confirmation of the sucker rally together with the flip flop of the MA200 ($10.80) days before the Death Cross (and price plunge) gave TA investors time to get out (again)....What a beautiful death cross example .

For the Fundies this article from NZCTA (NZ China Trade Association) back in September 26th 2016 was a dire warning

Thanks Hoop. Thanks to your excellent and frequent TA posts this old hound is learning new tricks, proof an old dog can learn new tricks

Thanks for that article which makes fascinating reading. Considering ~ 60% of their product ends up in China, (much of the Australian sales were for re-export to China) the risks around the accreditation process and the resultant effects on CVT would appear to be quite serious. I am very pleased to have used the skills you so freely share, (thank you), on here to make a timely exit.

[Hoop]

After a decent free-fall a dead cat bounce event is very likely to occur...Rule of thumb is the price should pull back 30% of the plunge, or to meet a resistance line..
I chose to ignore the $6.00 trade....Target price..$6.40 + (($7.80 - $6.40) x 30%) = $6.82
Charted target price resistance..unconfirmed resistance at $7.00... confirmed resistance zone $7.65ish to $8.00
When the target price is met..2 strategies..either hold until sell signals emerge or sell near TP and take quick profit.

When to enter dead cat investing?...Use very short term charts with momentum indicators..Wait for the fall (-ve) momentum (and price) to stop and reverse to +ve momentum..
To give you an idea, see below for the self updating Big chart free version (remember it is 20 minute delayed data)...so if you wish to do DC investing buy the up to date data together with a decent charting program.

[kerryo]

Good opportunity to sell to them then.

Thanks, I did.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251910.pdf

ONL restated sales forecasts - distributors' sales down 85%!

So much for the manuka honey story - amber gold (honey) going the same way as liquid white gold (milk).

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251910.pdf

ONL restated sales forecasts - distributors' sales down 85%!

So much for the manuka honey story - amber gold (honey) going the same way as liquid white gold (milk).

WOW thanks for sharing, some very somber reading there.

[Apathy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11700416 Looking back at what was said and the situation now faced... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11787248 what a fiasco !

Note the comment in the later article......they have been building stocks for 18 months and have enough supply to meet demand for next year??

How does that add up? Its consistent with what their balance sheet suggests but that means the profit down turn has nothing at all to do with stocks......... its the crash in demand and price...

Once you start telling lies you need to have a very good memory....

[Xerof]

Note the comment in the later article......they have been building stocks for 18 months and have enough supply to meet demand for next year??

How does that add up? Its consistent with what their balance sheet suggests but that means the profit down turn has nothing at all to do with stocks......... its the crash in demand and price...

Once you start telling lies you need to have a very good memory....

Indeed, 'stale' inventory. Oh well, at least it won't go off

I hope their bees like tulips, coz they appear to be left holding them.....ref March 1637 events

[Beagle]

Note the comment in the later article......they have been building stocks for 18 months and have enough supply to meet demand for next year??

How does that add up? Its consistent with what their balance sheet suggests but that means the profit down turn has nothing at all to do with stocks......... its the crash in demand and price...

Once you start telling lies you need to have a very good memory....

I agree with you 100% mate and that's exactly what's suggested by this. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251910.pdf. Also CVT very conveniently glosses over the compliance and regulatory risk posed by the Chinese authorities where 60% of their products end up. What happens to the company if they're not an approved supplier to China ?

I understand they're not making any money from their company owned hives so that explains some of the downgrade but in my view the weather is a very convenient excuse and masks some of the really serious issues the company faces.

For those very brave souls who see value here, here's some more info on trading dead cat bounces https://www.learningmarkets.com/trad...ad-cat-bounce/

[winner69]

No 4 buck bargains now

We'll prob look back in a years time and say what the heck was the fuss about

Maybe 8 bucks by end of week and then 9 bucks and then ......

[BlackPeter]

No 4 buck bargains now

We'll prob look back in a years time and say what the heck was the fuss about

Maybe 8 bucks by end of week and then 9 bucks and then ......

Possible - but unlikely. At current it is in a beautiful downtrend ... and the fundamentals we know of certainly wouldn't support a SP as high as today.

If you hope for a quick recovery, I think there would need to come new facts the market does not know about. Any proposals?