The company talks as though they will be accredited under the forthcoming Chinese regulations like is already a fate acoompli but a few infant milk powder producers got a rude shock when they were completely overlooked by Chinese authorities and didn't even get a look-in and others were surprised by the rigor of the process. Seeing as ~ 60% of their sales end up in China, accreditation and whether it happens or not is the elephant in the room.
The other thing worth considering is that the new tax impost the Chinese have imposed on grey market channels is only 12%...hardly draconian by any measure and yet the effects on sales appears to have been quite pronounced. NBR has an interesting behind the paywall article today talking about counterfeiting issues with manuka honey products in China...another material risk the company is surprisingly quiet about.
Last edited by Beagle; 25-01-2017 at 12:43 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
As stated at the AGM the chinese Co which took the shareholding at 10.80 is a large retail chain , Govt backed in china. I feel that the regulatory problems will be solved. Price fluctuations similiar ti this have happened before and looking back have been a buying opportunity.
As stated at the AGM the chinese Co which took the shareholding at 10.80 is a large retail chain , Govt backed in china. I feel that the regulatory problems will be solved. Price fluctuations similiar ti this have happened before and looking back have been a buying opportunity.
The sp chart since Dec 2015 would beg to disagree with you. Each buying opportunity had been superseded by a new low.
As stated at the AGM the chinese Co which took the shareholding at 10.80 is a large retail chain , Govt backed in china. I feel that the regulatory problems will be solved. Price fluctuations similiar ti this have happened before and looking back have been a buying opportunity.
I think that is very very optimistic. Profit warnings always understate the true extent - it is basically about BOD butt covering on going disclosure requirements with minimum info. and it takes the sting out of the subsequent result.
We don't know if it is market down turn, raw material shortage, counterfeit products, more competition, regulatory, weather..... half year result will give us proper info on top line sales and inventory.
Given they started year with 12 months of inventory - a drop in sales will blow that out further - and if it is the 'wrong' stock then its going to be a big write off.
And as for the weather - have no doubt it has impacted but there is no way you can convince me that impact won't be really felt till next financial year.
The self updating 15 minute chart Post#642 is currently showing the bounce is weakening..The momentum indicator as from 2.30pm today has gone slightly negative (one sell signal) The other indicators still OK and the depth is showing no resistance points at this moment...
Closed today at $7.30 down 10c from its high point...A brilliant bounce so far ...The dead cat bouncers will be very happy with this one..
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by winner69
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