Comvita - CVT

[kiwidollabill]

I would be surprised that 10-15% is what you call massive.From the goss sounds more than that KDB. Does that mean who has reasonable supplies can corner the market?

Sorry, I may not have been clear - they have collected only 10% of the volume compared to last year (i.e. 10t vs 100t)

[kiora]

Sorry, I may not have been clear - they have collected only 10% of the volume compared to last year (i.e. 10t vs 100t)

Yep that,s quite clear now thanks KDB. Now what are the implications of that???

[kiwidollabill]

Yep that,s quite clear now thanks KDB. Now what are the implications of that???

Well, its clear that there is a fair amount of inventory sitting around by many companies so it should take some excess supply off and allow better pricing position into Asia (this is so very similar to the dairy industry from two years ago...). This seasons honey will be of quite poor quality (alot of sugar feeding), and with the new MPI laws to come into effect, it will prevent export of it. Big losers will be the beekeepers and any companies hanging onto poor quality stock.

This will probably get rid of the Johnny come lately companies into NZ.

But the real risk to the NZ manuka position will be from Australia (they may come into this supply void), they have their own quality issues (they allow honey imports)

IMHO there is alot more news to come out from CVT in regards to these issues and the market is not correctly priced. I'd sit on the side for 6 months to provide clarity to filter through. There could be a good opportunity for those to trade through a rise. When that entry point will come is up for speculation - it could be >12 months if CVT is suffering a supply shock and have certainty around the 17/18 season or it could be after the MPI rules are released and CVT will be a winner.

[Xerof]

Are you insinuating that iwi are going to start trying to clip the ticket, claiming traditional ownership of the manuka plants and thus a "production input" of the honey?

I reported on here a month or so ago that iwi want to kick commercials off, and commence their own businesses, certainly on the NI EC

[arc]

Originally Posted by Lego_Man
Are you insinuating that iwi are going to start trying to clip the ticket, claiming traditional ownership of the manuka plants and thus a "production input" of the honey?

I personally have no idea what plans exist on the inside.

I do know that all players are suffering from multiple hives being stolen and that they are worried about more than just the varroa mite

[kiwidollabill]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11801776

A bit of background on the daigou channel and now why it is such a problem for CVT

From my perspective this is a case of the exec and the board failing to manage their supply chain risk, I don't see how 'the force of the market' is an excuse.

The only 'brand' that got built was "Manuka", now to the point where honey is a commodity.....

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11801776

A bit of background on the daigou channel and now why it is such a problem for CVT

From my perspective this is a case of the exec and the board failing to manage their supply chain risk, I don't see how 'the force of the market' is an excuse.

The only 'brand' that got built was "Manuka", now to the point where honey is a commodity.....

Sounds like Comvita is floundering in its response to the Chinese government clamp down on the grey market?

Then there's the manuka honey review to come and then, the health supplements after that.

Best to stand aside until it's clear out there!

Scary to see Bellamy's sp down to $4.80 from nearly $16.00!

[peat]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11801776

A bit of background on the daigou channel and now why it is such a problem for CVT

From my perspective this is a case of the exec and the board failing to manage their supply chain risk, I don't see how 'the force of the market' is an excuse.

The only 'brand' that got built was "Manuka", now to the point where honey is a commodity.....

yes a good article KDB, thanks for posting that

[44wishlists]

On a trip in Hong Kong now, had a chat with one of the CVT staffs in the office. Sales have been going on since Christmas, and Chinese New Years, but the results ain't helping them to finish work on time. On the other hand, another CVT product Medihoney is gaining popularity here.

[Beagle]

An 11.9% level of tax on grey imports is not what anyone would realistically call a punitive tax rate so this tax appears to be by no means the only serious issue.
Over time once the changes to the certification process are implemented and assuming CVT is chosen to be reviewed and indeed meets the Chinese requirements I feel they will have a viable business model again.
In the meantime with exports to China seriously impacted, (estimated 60% of their exports ended up there), I can see plenty of risk both in terms of the accuracy of their forecasting and the serious effects on the business if they're not approved under the proposed new certification process. Disc: I am happy to stand aside and not be an investor until risk materially diminishes.