Comvita - CVT

[kiwidollabill]

The easiest way out for them is to sell stock.
They are not in the storage business.
The easiest way to sell stock is to "meet the market".
Manuka Honey has been off our shopping list as it is too expensive.
We will start buying again if and when they half the price.
I expect others will do the same.

Problem is that this is hitting many players in the industry....

I hear stories of alot of inventory sitting in both NZ and CHN with no buyers at above cost prices.

There is now a race to the bottom and sadly a commodisation of what was a 'high value' industry.

[sb9]

Chinese buyers are still asleep. It will probably bounce in the afternoon.

May be case of "once bitten twice shy" this time for those Chinese buyers by the looks...

[RGR367]

...........
We will start buying again if and when they half the price.
I expect others will do the same.

Okay. We'll save enough to buy in at $4. Even lower would be nice

disc: not a holder

[Balance]

Actually it's not good or healthy for our market to have three companies (WHS & OHE & CVT) hammered in recent times.

Hundreds of millions of dollars dissipate into thin air.

You can sense the punters now heading to the hills?

[stoploss]

Actually it's not good or healthy for our market to have three companies (WHS & OHE & CVT) hammered in recent times.

Hundreds of millions of dollars dissipate into thin air.

You can sense the punters now heading to the hills?

You forgot the elephant in the room FBU ......

[Balance]

You forgot the elephant in the room FBU ......

Indeed I have!

Shocker!

[Beagle]

So 26 October 2016 that 'we expect our net profit after tax for the June 2017 financial year will be similar to our 2016 after-tax operating earnings of $17.1m. '

Then on January 23rd 'we now anticipate that our 2017 after-tax operating earnings will be in the range of $5-7m'

And then today 'result in an after tax operating loss for the financial year ended 30 June 2017, in the order of $7m'

Enough said - i think Mr Coulter has no idea what's going on, maybe too much honey mead made him slightly delusional

First down grade $10m-$12m and this downgrade $12m-$14m. It's amazing the share price has collapsed completely. Maybe hope is a strategy

Agree. I have lost confidence this relative newcomer to the CEO ranks has the commercial skills to manage the company properly and their woeful inability to forecast is quite frankly totally pathetic. I'm out !

This is only the second downgrade - third one to come.

Anyone look at the financial position? Higher inventories and losses may necessitate a capital raising?

Very good point mate. More trouble coming I sense. Big loss in first half of this year...they may struggle to get through this calendar year without a capital raise. I won't be burned again AT ANY PRICE.

[Balance]

Agree. I have lost confidence this relative newcomer to the CEO ranks has the commercial skills to manage the company properly and their woeful inability to forecast is quite frankly totally pathetic. I'm out !

Very good point mate. More trouble coming I sense. Big loss in first half of this year...they may struggle to get through this calendar year without a capital raise. I won't be burned again AT ANY PRICE.

What is telling about the sp action today is that the price has dropped very sharply on very low volume.

Suggest there are big boys out there looking to get out.

Unless the Chinese step up to the plate, the bottom this time round could be a long way down.

[Beagle]

Yes it is becoming harder to ignore the recovery. Clear break above 100 day MA today on the back of the Chinese authorities flip-flop which will allow continuation of grey channel imports to China apparently without new labelling a licensing requirements.
Blackmores and Bellamy's up about 14% since that Chinese announcement earlier this week but CVT relatively unchanged ?
Maybe the market is starting to look through the current year's abysmal projected profit and believes that with the grey channel now all clear and a new joint venture partner with a very wide distribution network in China coming on stream on 1 July and with 24 new products this year alone the market seems to be starting to price in future growth again.
Company Investor presentation February 2017 https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253401.pdf
Maybe the worm, (bee?) has turned on this one ?

Hmmm..wonder what made you to jump on board in the first instance onto this one Roger...just curious nothing sinister

See above post mate. Was a small speculative play based on the China policy flip-flop and some technical signals. Lesson learned. Only ever back technical indicators when you truly believe in the fundamental story and have genuine confidence in management. Hounds always learning mate, just like everyone else. Hound his snout stung with a good Bee sting with this one but I prefer to take the medication and avoid potentially painful swelling and worse.. having to live in a sticky situation with management who I don't trust. Scott Coulters record ever since the tax problems with grey channel exports first emerged has been absolutely appalling. He talks even now about overheads have been cut but IIRC only about twenty something staff went out of 450. To little and they have been well behind the eight ball on the whole regulatory change for a long time now. They keep blaming everything on the weather and regulatory changes but I honestly think there's more to it than that and management's answers are far less transparent than they should be.
Plenty of well managed and well directed alternative companies to invest in rather than speculate if this will ever be successful again. TIL has more than halved from its peak, this one deserves even rougher treatment by the market in my opinion as at least TIL are still profitable !

[Beagle]

What is telling about the sp action today is that the price has dropped very sharply on very low volume.

Suggest there are big boys out there looking to get out.

Unless the Chinese step up to the plate, the bottom this time round could be a long way down.

Agreed. Been dropping all day too, bad sign. Always appreciate your balanced input mate Redeployed my capital straight back into SUM. Talk about chalk and cheese in terms of management credibility !
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