Comvita - CVT

[Bilbo]

What is telling about the sp action today is that the price has dropped very sharply on very low volume.

Suggest there are big boys out there looking to get out.

Unless the Chinese step up to the plate, the bottom this time round could be a long way down.

It went to $6.50 after January announcement. Surely this announcement paints a worse picture than the January one? In which case I would expect to see the sp in the low $6s in the near future and maybe lower. But then again, maybe the uncertainty of the Jan announcement has now been cleared up, and sp might hold above $7.

I'm out and not likely to be back anyway.

[Beagle]

So 26 October 2016 that 'we expect our net profit after tax for the June 2017 financial year will be similar to our 2016 after-tax operating earnings of $17.1m. '

Then on January 23rd 'we now anticipate that our 2017 after-tax operating earnings will be in the range of $5-7m'

And then today 'result in an after tax operating loss for the financial year ended 30 June 2017, in the order of $7m'

Enough said - i think Mr Coulter has no idea what's going on, maybe too much honey mead made him slightly delusional

First down grade $10m-$12m and this downgrade $12m-$14m. It's amazing the share price has collapsed completely. Maybe hope is a strategy

Winner, I have been thinking about this overnight. What is truly shocking about this latest downgrade is this.
1. Its larger than the first downgrade which went from $17.1m to $5-7m = $17.1 - $6m (at the mid point) = $11.1m Current downgrade is 6m profit to ~ 7m loss = $13m
2. The first downgrade came after they essentially already had a very good handle on the first half loss and already had a very good handle on the severe weather effects affecting the company's honey harvest this year and also the severe effects of the Chinese regulatory changes and came just on 3 months after the initial forecast.
3. Nothing material has really changed in just over two months since their 23 January 2017 announcement, other than the positive announcement of the Chinese regulatory flip-flop the other day.
Weather has played out as they expected, honey harvest has played out as they expected...but we get a whopping $13m downgrade just on two months later after they already knew all the negatives and should have been able to reliably factor those in properly on 23 January !

My conclusions:-

1. No credibility whatsoever can be attached to any attempt that management make to forecast, either the current attempt or any future attempt. Total amatures.
2. Forecasting should be conservative and based on quantifiable data. You cannot tell me that at some stage between 23 January 2017 and yesterday they didn't already know that they would struggle to make the January forecast, I simply don't believe it.
2b - I believe they have been in breech of their continuous disclosure requirement obligations at some point in the last two months but proving this would be extremely difficult.
2c There may be serious questions regarding their internal control and internal financial reporting systems as to their timeliness, adequacy and fitness for purpose.
3.I agree that Mr Coulter has no idea whatsoever, he should resign, his performance all year has been a complete disgrace and this company is presently best described as being in disarray.
4. His resignation and getting some fresh idea's and proper prudent management skills on board might avoid this company's financial performance becoming a complete fiasco in future.
5. I doubt they have done anywhere near enough cost cutting and restructuring. They've been behind the eight ball all year and really need to get far more proactive and ahead of the curve. Maybe their new J.V. partner in China will help them but I wouldn't put money on it !
6. I won't be back at any price as I have no confidence whatsoever in management or the directors ability to govern and discharge their responsibilities to shareholders properly.
7.This company deserves to be savaged a lot more harshly than TIL which has more than halved from its SP peak.
8. Not that I would buy at any price but presently I see no reason why this share should be any more than the base it built about three years ago, about $3.90 - $4.00.

Disc: Purged my shareholding now purged my spleen venting about it !

[sb9]

Well done Roger on your tough decision to exit your position from this.

[Joshuatree]

Posted by Ogg
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ey-study-finds

Thanks Ogg. over 82 species of leptospernum manuka in Aus to our 1 and some varieties(16%) having more UMF!. Serious comp alright and what ;vast acreages there.? And dismissing it as not a threat by saying "global demand is outstripping supply" is a bit flippant?.More supply( an explosive growth?) at higher grades from Aus could well lower prices here.

Im not a betting man but am imagining Aussie going hell for leather placing 1000's of hives (season depending) around their multitudes of hectares of newfound superior manuka to cash in on what was NZ's exclusive point of difference and Comvitas huge moat, UMF honey. And when that production comes on stream ; well how well will pricing hold up then.

[bull....]

you think it would go lower than the last downgrade low of $6

[Joshuatree]

No idea just surmising future ahead and poss challenges.

Maybe i could take up the life of a shorter

[kiora]

Sad really.From couldn't do anything wrong to this

[winner69]

You'd think Comvita would take these things down from their website

http://www.comvita.co.nz/_assets/Inv...May%202016.pdf


Forecast F17 NPAT $17m odd .......valuation over $13

[JayRiggs]

You'd think Comvita would take these things down from their website

http://www.comvita.co.nz/_assets/Inv...May%202016.pdf


Forecast F17 NPAT $17m odd .......valuation over $13

It's very telling how Edison haven't updated their research reports of late.
After giving CVT such high valuations, it'd be a bad look to talk about CVT's multiple downgrades.

I think I read somewhere that Comvita are paying Edison to do their research.

[BlackPeter]

You'd think Comvita would take these things down from their website

http://www.comvita.co.nz/_assets/Inv...May%202016.pdf


Forecast F17 NPAT $17m odd .......valuation over $13

maybe they want to get their money back from Edison ... and as long as Edison does not pay they leave their embarrassing analysis up in the open.