Comvita - CVT

[Ogg]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ranaki-nursery

[Ogg]

Where's the bottom on this?

[hardt]

Where's the bottom on this?

what is the meaning of life?

[BlackPeter]

Where's the bottom on this?

Let me reformulate the question:
Why would people want to buy a share of an underperforming company with inept management and a good portion of bad luck (myrtle rust) added? A forward PE of 37 (corrected: 35, just noticed the price went down to $5.60) in combination with very questionable future growth prospects are hardly compelling reasons to buy in.

Don't think I would want to buy in at any price ... but if you push me really hard: Maybe $1.60 (equating a forward PE of 10), but this would require me to believe the analysts predictions (which I currently don't).

In my view is this a classic example of never buy (or hold) in a downtrend ...

[ados_nz]

Let me reformulate the question:
Why would people want to buy a share of an underperforming company with inept management and a good portion of bad luck (myrtle rust) added? A forward PE of 37 (corrected: 35, just noticed the price went down to $5.60) in combination with very questionable future growth prospects are hardly compelling reasons to buy in.

Don't think I would want to buy in at any price ... but if you push me really hard: Maybe $1.60 (equating a forward PE of 10), but this would require me to believe the analysts predictions (which I currently don't).

In my view is this a classic example of never buy (or hold) in a downtrend ...

Great entry opportunity at this level!





Not

[Beagle]

Let me reformulate the question:
Why would people want to buy a share of an underperforming company with inept management and a good portion of bad luck (myrtle rust) added? A forward PE of 37 (corrected: 35, just noticed the price went down to $5.60) in combination with very questionable future growth prospects are hardly compelling reasons to buy in.

Don't think I would want to buy in at any price ... but if you push me really hard: Maybe $1.60 (equating a forward PE of 10), but this would require me to believe the analysts predictions (which I currently don't).

In my view is this a classic example of never buy (or hold) in a downtrend ...

Agree 100%. Add in their total inability to forecast, (throwing darts at a dartboard would be more accurate), the fact that there's serious issues with the Govt's new accreditation program for manuka honey, major issues with counterfeit product in China, major issues with an over dependence on the one market, (60% of all the companies sales apparently end up in china), woeful under-recognition of problems to date by management, woeful public and investor relations on their part, once over very lightly indeed with a feather brush when it comes to restructuring if you can call it that last year...have I left anything out by accident...its quite possible as there's simply so many negative factors to remember !

Basically there is no price I would buy this stock at unless there is fresh blood at a board and management level and it reverts to a forward PE of less than 10, (10 is for a well managed proven agricultural company). Frankly this deserves to have its SP literally fall off the face of a cliff.

[winner69]

Was thinking a 5:1 split

That was last July when you were so excited with how Comvita was going and calling for a share split ......and do you remember I was trying to tell you things didn't actually look that right,

Share price would be just over a $ today if that split had happened .....seems about right


How things have changed

Couldn't resist bringing this up ....lol

[janner]

what is the meaning of life?

42 :-))))

[Beagle]

That was last July when you were so excited with how Comvita was going and calling for a share split ......and do you remember I was trying to tell you things didn't actually look that right,

Share price would be just over a $ today if that split had happened .....seems about right


How things have changed

Couldn't resist bringing this up ....lol

No worries mate, things sure have changed in the last ten months and I think one of the key issues is management haven't recognized the severity of how the goal posts have so dramatically shifted. Talk about being behind the eight ball ! Yes I do recall you expressed concerns regarding cash flow and slow inventory turn, (forgive me there may be other concerns you raised that I can't recall). Kudos to you Yes just over $1 does seem about right to me, without the split.

Why these are trading above the baseline ~ $4 they established a couple of years ago when the industry and prospects for CVT were looking a heck of a lot brighter than they are now is beyond my comprehension. Must be all those fancy DCF broker models...best we don't mention that those models are only as good as the bunch of long term guesses underpinning them...long term guesses in this industry ...management can't see past the barn door slamming them in the face why would anyone think broker analysts have better vision ?...Hmmmm.

[horus1]

I am holding . Great buy at this price