Comvita - CVT

[Joshuatree]

They will stabilise and it is then the time to pick up some more which I will do. Good products .

Have you bought more since ,horus?

Being a contrarian can be very rewarding as long as you have done some serious research and joined all the dots and have the conviction this is an inefficient (out of favour atm) mkt opportunity. The other side is one can have investor bias and only see what one wants to see and also not want to crystallise a loss( a problem i still wrestle with at times). I haven't an opinion really except it looks bad chart wise,but on decreasing vol, I've been cut before with falling knives ; sentiment is very low; read these threads lol. G/luck whichever it is.

[janner]

Have you bought more since ,horus?

Being a contrarian can be very rewarding as long as you have done some serious research and joined all the dots and have the conviction this is an inefficient (out of favour atm) mkt opportunity. The other side is one can have investor bias and only see what one wants to see and also not want to crystallise a loss( a problem i still wrestle with at times). I haven't an opinion really except it looks bad chart wise,but on decreasing vol, I've been cut before with falling knives ; sentiment is very low; read these threads lol. G/luck whichever it is.

Good post JT.

Have never owned.. Even though I was very impressed with Claude many years ago...

Disc. Never owned even though impressed by Claude. Not going to own under the present set up.

[Balance]

Agree 100%. Add in their total inability to forecast, (throwing darts at a dartboard would be more accurate), the fact that there's serious issues with the Govt's new accreditation program for manuka honey, major issues with counterfeit product in China, major issues with an over dependence on the one market, (60% of all the companies sales apparently end up in china), woeful under-recognition of problems to date by management, woeful public and investor relations on their part, once over very lightly indeed with a feather brush when it comes to restructuring if you can call it that last year...have I left anything out by accident...its quite possible as there's simply so many negative factors to remember !

Basically there is no price I would buy this stock at unless there is fresh blood at a board and management level and it reverts to a forward PE of less than 10, (10 is for a well managed proven agricultural company). Frankly this deserves to have its SP literally fall off the face of a cliff.

Huge problem with adulterated manuka honey in the industry which should get found out with the new MPI testing regime.

Be interesting to get an update from Comvita how exposed it is to the problem - as in how much of the stock they are sitting on is compromised by quality issues.

Staying well clear until then.

[kiwidollabill]

Huge problem with adulterated manuka honey in the industry which should get found out with the new MPI testing regime.

Be interesting to get an update from Comvita how exposed it is to the problem - as in how much of the stock they are sitting on is compromised by quality issues.

Staying well clear until then.

To quote a well known NZ manuka honey scientist I know - "you could take a jar of every honey variety, mix them together, and the MPI criteria will say it can be sold as Manuka...."

I mentioned a few days back about the issues faced with the new MPI regime (particularly the DNA test)

[horus1]

Thanks , JT. I accumulate shares in my core companies and hold when they go up. I am reluctant to sell. I will not buy in the areas of electricity generation,telecomms , gambling, or sky tv,neither will I buy in the motor / fuel sector. I do OK and have a decent size portfolio, dont need the money which is really for my kids.

[Balance]

Buying just got even better this morning?

[Beagle]

Buying just got even better this morning?

LOL. I was just looking at the five year chart. The huge spike up from the multi year baseline of ~ $3.90 only started in May 2015 when things were looking really rosy for the industry. I can't see a single reason why it shouldn't revert to a maximum of that baseline in the foreseeable future, (really I expect that baseline to be sorely tested, perhaps down to a 5 year low of under $2.90. What happens when it almost inevitably get relegated out of the NZX50 at the next index rebalance and index tracker funds MUST sell I think holders would be well advised to have ample stocks of medi honey on hand and their manuka infused bandages for the deep cuts likely to be inflicted by this falling knife.

[winner69]

Even if they have to take a hit sometime and write down the value of their honey stocks it will be treated as a non-cash item anyway so won't affect Normalised Profit and the future outlook

No worries

[Beagle]

LOL Winner...yeah they can just keep writing things off as non cash extraordinary items year after year just like Veritas has done and it won't have any impact on the future outlook, all good

[winner69]

LOL Winner...yeah they can just keep writing things off as non cash extraordinary items year after year just like Veritas has done and it won't have any impact on the future outlook, all good

But isn't that how corpoarate accounting works

Future expectations and cash flows drive the 'valuation' eh .... not past indiscretions

No worries