Comvita - CVT

[Beagle]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/nation...cid=spartandhp

[BlackPeter]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/nation...cid=spartandhp

You sort of wonder why 20% of their "best" manuka honey does not pass the test.

I guess - sure, the test could be unreliable, but for that to decide it would be interesting how the cheap supermarket honey would do?
Are really all producers reporting this 20% fail rate?
Maybe it is just related to the bees getting a bit too much sugar as replacement feed? Or maybe it depends on in what time of the year they collected the honey? Or maybe some beekeepers (or bees ) can't distinguish between manuka and kanuka?

How do they know anyway what their "best" honey is? Is it just the honey with the flashest label and the highest price, or how else do they measure "best"?

How is "best" for the producer relevant for the consumer? How is a pass in the test relevant for the consumer (i.e. do they get something measurably better or is this like homeopathie?

So many questions - and so much black magic ... glad I didn't put my money into this industry ...

[kiwidollabill]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...t-risk--labour

"When you go through a new testing regime you need to adjust laboratory methods to take account of samples that behave differently - it's part of a normal process."

What an utter load of rubbish, that is not how you develop new testing - all the validation is suppose to be done up front so there aren't issues like this.

To get into the techy detail of what is happening, the high UMF Manuka honey is failing the DNA test - it is believed by industry participants that the high levels of MGO in top grade manuka is binding to any DNA left in the honey and hence preventing detection in the test. I hear rumors in some of MPIs validation process which could have lead to this getting through.

[Beagle]

You sort of wonder why 20% of their "best" manuka honey does not pass the test.

I guess - sure, the test could be unreliable, but for that to decide it would be interesting how the cheap supermarket honey would do?
Are really all producers reporting this 20% fail rate?
Maybe it is just related to the bees getting a bit too much sugar as replacement feed? Or maybe it depends on in what time of the year they collected the honey? Or maybe some beekeepers (or bees ) can't distinguish between manuka and kanuka?

How do they know anyway what their "best" honey is? Is it just the honey with the flashest label and the highest price, or how else do they measure "best"?

How is "best" for the producer relevant for the consumer? How is a pass in the test relevant for the consumer (i.e. do they get something measurably better or is this like homeopathie?

So many questions - and so much black magic ... glad I didn't put my money into this industry ...

So many questions.... Came back from the movies the other night and was felling pretty poorly coughing and what not. Had a couple of sandwiches with plenty of that cheap supermarket honey on them for supper and a glass of milk, (lest we forget how blessed we are, we live in the land of milk and honey ), had a good sleep and woke up the next morning feeling absolutely fine...makes you wonder doesn't it...guess I could have used some of that extremely expensive UMF15+ manuaka honey and would probably have got the same result.
At times like this with so much heresay, theory, conjecture and speculation, sometimes it pays to reference the gold standard of truth...
http://bible.knowing-jesus.com/topics/Honey
26 verses in the Bible telling you honey is good for you and not a single reference to Manuaka honey being even better... Hmmm

[winner69]

Relevant to this forum of late

Proverbs 16:24 - Pleasant words are a honeycomb, Sweet to the soul and healing to the bones.


Proverbs 25:27 - It is not good to eat much honey, Nor is it glory to search out one's own glory.

Thanks to Roger post above

[Beagle]

Good extracts indeed Winner.
It would seem that the reality of the impact of what's close to a perfect storm of events affecting CVT is finally starting to have some more meaningful effect on the SP although I would hasten to add that it was less than $4 a couple of years back when the robustness of their business model looked significantly more sound.
Not sure why the market is still pricing this above a figure when times looked far better....probably those fancy DCF broker forecasts assuming everything is going to come right in the years ahead...but what if it doesn't ? After now finally more than halving from its previous lofty high of over $12, might we see the current price halve again ? Management have it all ahead of them to even prove their business model works going forward, let alone get back to an acceptable level of profitability commensurate with a $5 share price !

[ratkin]

Good extracts indeed Winner.
It would seem that the reality of the impact of what's close to a perfect storm of events affecting CVT is finally starting to have some more meaningful effect on the SP although I would hasten to add that it was less than $4 a couple of years back when the robustness of their business model looked significantly more sound.
Not sure why the market is still pricing this above a figure when times looked far better....probably those fancy DCF broker forecasts assuming everything is going to come right in the years ahead...but what if it doesn't ? After now finally more than halving from its previous lofty high of over $12, might we see the current price halve again ? Management have it all ahead of them to even prove their business model works going forward, let alone get back to an acceptable level of profitability commensurate with a $5 share price !

I seem to remember you were one of those enthusiastically buying at those "lofty levels" not so long back (Months not years). As someone who held from way back, I was more than happy to offload into that strength, as the rise from Four dollars all the way to Twelve was rather perplexing.
I warned repeatedly on this thread about the dangers of this stock and was ignored in the rush to buy, of which you were probably the most vocal advocate cheering the company on. Now you are no longer holding I see you are the most vocal in predicting it demise. What a difference a few months makes.

[Beagle]

I seem to remember you were one of those enthusiastically buying at those "lofty levels" not so long back (Months not years). As someone who held from way back, I was more than happy to offload into that strength, as the rise from Four dollars all the way to Twelve was rather perplexing.
I warned repeatedly on this thread about the dangers of this stock and was ignored in the rush to buy, of which you were probably the most vocal advocate cheering the company on. Now you are no longer holding I see you are the most vocal in predicting it demise. What a difference a few months makes.

Its been over a year since this fiasco started to unfold. Things were looking exceptionally good for strong ongoing growth 15 or so months back and the PE based on growth rates and forecasts looked compelling, (one analyst had a $14 price target at one stage). They were rapidly building critical mass and distribution challenges at that stage were unheard of. I don't think anyone could have predicted the degree and extent of the problems they've faced. Certainly the veracity of the companies own forecasting model has been brought very seriously into question. If the old adage is true that a week is a long time in politics then I think its fair to say a LOT can change in a year in business and this one of the best examples I've ever seen of that. If I remember correctly I started buying just over $7 and the vast majority of my stake was exited at over $10 as it became clear their operating environment had dramatically changed. Good on you for getting in a ~ $4 but it would have been a pretty speculative buy at that stage as profitability to an acceptable level hadn't really been proved up in a convincing manner. The problem I find with buying speculative unproven companies with lots of apparent potential is you can easily get you capital properly drilled out. Hindsight is always 20/20, what matters is the future. Where do you see the SP in 18 months time or aren't you brave enough to make a call on that ?

[IAK]

Myrtle rust found in the Bay of Plenty - not looking good for the manuka honey industry. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-da...ectid=11875363

[Joshuatree]

"We understand when myrtle rust arrived in Australia in 2010 there were concerns about the impact it might have on honey production. However, to date there seems to have been no effect."

Too early to know what effect it will have here.