Comvita - CVT

**Ogg** · 28-03-2018, 12:20 PM

It has been a lovely summer and the last of the honey boxes are being taken off the hives at the moment ready for extraction. Unfortunately it was a bit too hot for the flowers and not a lot of nectar was produced. This was a very frustrating time for the bees who are healthy and on the look out for nectar for the hive. This has meant that again we don't have as much honey as we would like but we are able to offer Raw Clover in 500g, 1kg and 2.5kg buckets.

It has been hot work in the Apiaries. The last of the honey boxes are being taken off the hives and varroa treatments going in to get the mite numbers down so the bees don't have a problem over the winter. The bees are still quite active and trying to get the last bit of honey before it gets too cold.

Got this promotional email from Bee-R-Us yesterday.

**Leftfield** · 16-04-2018, 10:25 AM

Profit downgrade and due diligence announcement today.

Pass the parcel to a new owner. Tricky times for holders?

**winner69** · 16-04-2018, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by Left field

Profit downgrade and due diligence announcement today.

Pass the parcel to a new owner. Tricky times for holders?

Wonder what the share price would have collapsed to if they hadnt added the bit about a possible suitor

**Ogg** · 16-04-2018, 10:58 AM

No doubt a Chinese take over.

**whatsup** · 16-04-2018, 11:16 AM

baker boys !!

**bull....** · 16-04-2018, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by bull....

this might help , looks like conditions have got softer of late

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU180...ey-volumes.htm

story was on the money. watched a good doc on netflix about fake honey from china where they use rice surup and mix it into the real honey to get the volume , totally untraceable apparently untill recently they have started using dna techniques to trace honey origin

**Beagle** · 16-04-2018, 11:22 AM

What a shocking and perennial disappointer this company has been. It would appear the company can only earn ~ $17m when all their weather stars align and in a normal weather year, (read less favorable than historical averages due to climate change) the company is somewhere around $10m which is really quite pathetic.
At the mid point of their forecast $9.5m on 45.57m shares that gives EPS of just 20.85 cps.
Now...you tell me what the right PE is given this is clearly an agricultural share with more than its fair share of risks, Murtle Rust forgotten by anyone ?
Talk of growth over the years has amounted to just that, Talk.

My standard time tested approach with cyclical argi companies is to apply a default PE of 10 and then adjust for other factors such as potential growth in various aspects of their business. In my opinion there would have to be really major synergies and cost cutting involved by any company looking to acquire Comvita to justify anything like the current share price and I note with due diligence already quite protracted there can be no assurance whatsoever regarding the possible outcome, indeed with this latest blow to their guidance on top of all the other guidance fiasco's in recent years its quite possible the potential buyer could run for the hills, I know I would !

I would rate this company a SELL.

**Balance** · 16-04-2018, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by Ogg

No doubt a Chinese take over.

Will not happen imo.

I have observed a few China attempts at taking over or buying NZ agri-based companies like Manuka Health and Freshmax in the last few years. In both instances they weren't prepared to pay the sort of money others were prepared to pay or what the vendors wanted.

PEP will be regretting their decision to buy Manuka Health for $110m if Comvita's problems are any guide. The Chinese I believe stopped at $100m.

Freshmax is still private after the vendors decided prices offered were not high enough for their precious company - maybe the NZX can give them a higher valuation?