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Thread: Comvita - CVT

  1. #981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Its a shocker in more ways than one isn't it ! I reckon a pig dog with mange and fleas is more attractive lol
    Really...the CEO has to go, he clearly has no idea...
    I'm most worried about the OIO blocking the take over, but if it's just a dog with fleas then they won't care, right?

    Only weak hands are selling now and those who look at PE all day.

  2. #982
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    I'm most worried about the OIO blocking the take over, but if it's just a dog with fleas then they won't care, right?

    Only weak hands are selling now and those who look at PE all day.
    Always good to see courage of conviction in action - the market needs people like you. Seriously and genuinely.

    Not sure about weak hands selling though - could prove to be smart heads?

    Time will tell.

  3. #983
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Always good to see courage of conviction in action - the market needs people like you. Seriously and genuinely.

    Not sure about weak hands selling though - could prove to be smart heads?

    Time will tell.
    If they were smart they would have read the long term weather report back in January and sold at $9 a few months ago....

    https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/seaso...ary-march-2018

    New Zealand’s regional climate over the next three month period is anticipated to be dominated by the very warm ocean waters present around the country and in the Tasman sea, which will influence surface air temperatures and the likelihood of significant rainfall events.
    Can't believe the buy depth is shrinking. This will be another great asset that the Chinese will buy at a bargain price. 5 years from now Kiwi's will be moaning about it.

    Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese played games and pulled the take over, then the stock will plummet, then they come back at a lower price.

    I'm averaging down with no stop loss.

  4. #984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    If they were smart they would have read the long term weather report back in January and sold at $9 a few months ago....

    https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/seaso...ary-march-2018



    Can't believe the buy depth is shrinking. This will be another great asset that the Chinese will buy at a bargain price. 5 years from now Kiwi's will be moaning about it.

    Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese played games and pulled the take over, then the stock will plummet, then they come back at a lower price.

    I'm averaging down with no stop loss.
    They might get Comvita , but they won't get every Manuka tree in NZ and every beehive for that matter ( although they are welcome to my local one !!) So easy for another company to setup and replicate this ....

  5. #985
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    They might get Comvita , but they won't get every Manuka tree in NZ and every beehive for that matter ( although they are welcome to my local one !!) So easy for another company to setup and replicate this ....
    At this level, I think upside is probably $1 max but downside is $2.50 - not the right equation to play the t/o scenario just yet imo.

  6. #986
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    They might get Comvita , but they won't get every Manuka tree in NZ and every beehive for that matter ( although they are welcome to my local one !!) So easy for another company to setup and replicate this ....
    If it was so easy why hasn't someone else replicated this by now and had the same success? That's like saying you're gonna start a shoe company and replicate Nike. You can't replicate the market leading brand. Ship has long sailed on anyone else copying this.

    Comvita dominates the market and branding is especially important for the export market. Ma and Pa small businesses can sell locally at the farmers market but they can't export overseas to the big market. That's where the money is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    At this level, I think upside is probably $1 max but downside is $2.50 - not the right equation to play the t/o scenario just yet imo.
    I think it's the other way around, $2.50 upside vs $1 downside. The Chinese buyer was happy paying $10, then they topped up at $7.20 last year. Stock has already been hammered recently too. The selling is likely coming from those technical investors who are looking at the dividend payment, just lol.
    Last edited by Ogg; 18-04-2018 at 02:15 PM.

  7. #987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    I'm most worried about the OIO blocking the take over, but if it's just a dog with fleas then they won't care, right?

    Only weak hands are selling now and those who look at PE all day.
    Nobody will care including the OIO.
    If only it was an easy as picking the right PE.
    I start with the board, do they have a credible track record of governance ? (No otherwise they would have been reigning in the CEO's ludicrously optimistic forecasts that have regularly been wildly wrong
    Does management have a credible track record with their performance and forecasting ability ? Repeated Epic Fails.
    Have they been achieving previous KPI's as outlined in pervious years annual reports ? Repeated Epic fails
    Is the company cash flow positive and is cash flow growing ? Epic Fail year after year.
    Is the gearing acceptable ? Its getting a lot worse as they pay dividends out of negative cash flow.
    What are the market dynamics and is the regulatory regime likely to change ? All the hype of sales into China hasn't come to much. The regulatory environment regarding manuka honey specification is uncertain and fluid.
    Fundamentally is the forecast PE attractive given the sector the company trades in and its growth rate ? No its shockingly overpriced and could very easily halve in the foreseeable future.
    Technically, is the stock in an confirmed uptrend ? No its in a confirmed downtrend despite takeover possibility which must be a massive red flag for anyone who believes anything about TA.

    This company fails All the filters I use in stock selection...not just two or three, All of them !

    Might as well back the truck up and learn yourself a serious lesson the hard way I reckon as you quite obviously don't want to listen to anyone on here.
    I can see this under $4 if the party doing due diligence walks away.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #988
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    Beagle ....share price was $13 odd once when profits were about the same as now

    Betcha you glad your took your profits on Comvita and ran for the hills a while ago ....I was surprised you got sucked in with the hype at the time but at least you came out of it (lucky) making heaps. Going into the NZX50 helped eh and the Chinese starting buying also helped. Good on you
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #989
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    Looking back I note that the Chinese pumped $20m into Covita at $10.60 a share

    Probably wondering how they can resurrect this investment
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #990
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle ....share price was $13 odd once when profits were about the same as now

    Betcha you glad your took your profits on Comvita and ran for the hills a while ago ....I was surprised you got sucked in with the hype at the time but at least you came out of it (lucky) making heaps. Going into the NZX50 helped eh and the Chinese starting buying also helped. Good on you
    Yeap mate it was a good run while it lasted. Price went up 20% upon inclusion in the NZX50....and some say there are no free investment lunches
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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