COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

PT

What do you make of GPG's recent buy into CSR?

They have a few areas of focus so it seems

Well at the moment I am a little puzzled.
CSR strikes me as an OK sort of company at a reasonable price that is unlikely to have any great upside to it. GPG currently have less than 7% so I don't know what the are playing at.
Just have to assume that they have some cunning plan that will become evident in the future.

[shasta]

Puzzles me too - why not either buy < 5% & stay off the radar, or just over 10% for the blocking stake.

They seem to be positioning themselves between 5 & 10% in a few Aussie stocks...

It's weird...

The Aussie stadium investment is in the same boat, out of left field!

I'm looking to re-enter after a while out of GPG, & just trying to make sense of what they are doing before committing to it.

Of course the chart needs improvement first...

[Hoop]

Arbitrage Quote .... It is interesting watching this share price falling especially when most international analysts are positive...
Looking on that site of Reuters the GPG graph is trendless and in a trading pattern. It seems that our NZ$ is the chief cause for the NZ GPG chart downtrend. Noting GPG price at 77pence is converted to NZ$1.96 bang on todays closing NZX price.

77p / .3922 = $1.96

It wasn't that long ago that our NZ$ was trading at 34p so using that calculation 77p / .34 = NZ$2.26

It's also interesting to see that GPG is willing to invest in Oz because the Ozzie dollar is nearly as strong as ours. This could mean either that CSR is underpriced/currency sensitive or GPG thinks that the down under dollars are not going to fall back in the medium term.

[Hoop]

A good day to update my previous post with the big drop in our NZ$.

Even with the big drop in stock prices in Britain GPG still trading at 77p

77p / .3817 = NZ$2.017

Any emotional general sell off this morning may see a little bargain emerge.

[777]

Well Hoop not a good day. Market down 1.8% and GPG down 3.6% and that is with a good drop in the NZ$. I hope it is only because of a lack of interest due to a lack of significant news from them.

[Phaedrus]

Chart Update. GPG has now fallen below a trailing stop that had been unbroken for over 4 years. In addition, it has now broken the support level set in April of last year. We shouldn't be too surprised at this - GPG was already in a downtrend and had been firing off Sell signals ever since it peaked in July of last year.
This chart provides an excellent example of why you shouldn't use a trailing stop as a standalone "Sell" indicator. See how far it lagged behind trend based indicators and the OBV sell signal. Just that much more profit given back to the market.

[winner69]

GPG at $1.90 - can't be true - First NZ Capital says GPG is worth $2.41 - so whats going on

But then a chart never tells lies ... so it must be true

[Awamoa]

Rightly or wrongly I have applied Buffets statement of "be brave when others are afraid" today and bought more at $1.90.
With time it has to be a bargain.

[777]

Phaedrus this has happened on a day that a small but significant drop in world markets. The NZ market floats down as a normal reaction. Therefore a particular stock, in this case GPG, is reacting to overall market forces rather than any sentiment to the individual stock itself. So if the markets rise tonight and NZ follows on Monday and GPG also rises then what has the trailing stop level infringement told us.

[Phaedrus]

777, It's a bit hard to see on such a small-scale chart, but both the April support level and the Trailing Stop were broken over a week ago on 18/7/07.
What has the trailing stop level infringement told us? Well, firstly, that the downtrend is continuing. Secondly, it has told us that this is more than the "usual" GPG retracement. Thirdly, I think it tells us that in this case the Trailing Stop was too far from the price action to be really useful. If you ignored earlier signals and delayed selling until it was hit, you would have given a lot more of your profits back to the market than if you had used trend indicators to exit.