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  1. #11
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    quote:Originally posted by davidrob
    And comparisons with Millers and The Warehouse Shop; are, for a host of reasons, are --IMO-- quite misguided and erroneous...
    G'dday Robbo still curious as to what you meant by that - in their prospectus TRS lists Millers and The Warehouse as their main competitors. Always a good sign when the competition is looking sick while TRS is issuing profit upgrades (and a very conservative one at that with lots of assumed adverse events - should beat it for the full year).

    Still, I hope to see a retrace to the low $3.05-3.10 region. I'm not prepared to chase it at the levels we saw today.

  2. #12
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    Hi TRS holders,

    Announcement out: Appendix 3B
    http://www.rejectshop.com.au/documen...0255FA07F7.pdf

    Hey, I hope TRS doesn't turn into a SEN[B)]

    Plus a news article on TRS in the Age dated Feb 17:

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...500153642.html

    _____________

    Consumers rush to embrace the $2 taste
    By Leonie Wood
    February 17, 2005


    Barry Saunders and his buying team at The Reject Shop have learnt that customers with $2 tastes still have some discretion in a consumer boom, although many let down their guard in the latest half-year and took a fancy to the retailer's $15 silicon bras.

    Sales of plastic storage boxes, ready-to-assemble furniture and kooky variety items, such as the silicon bras, helped lift The Reject Shop's December-half sales 12.8 per cent to $112 million and fuelled a 22.5 per cent lift in net profit to $7.45 million.

    Mr Saunders, who yesterday suggested he might be convinced to stay on as chief executive beyond June next year, said trading had been brisk until October, but the pace had weakened before Christmas. Sales had recovered strongly in January and February, and same-stores sales growth rate was running above the 5.9 per cent for the six months to December 31.

    Recent trading has been so strong that management yesterday bumped up its full-year profit forecast by about 8 per cent to between $6.5 million and $6.7 million.

    That indicates a loss for the June half-year, although The Reject Shop's second-half losses have shrunk in recent years.
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    "We would have closed that gap further were it not for the work that we are continuing to do for the future," Mr Saunders said. "While there is a chance that retail conditions may moderate, we believe the second half will be strong and (profitable before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation)."

    The retailer is investing heavily in IT to help manage inventory, has moved a distribution centre, and will incur extra costs as it switches stock-taking systems. It is taking some of its merchandising cues from the US, where discount variety retailers continue to gain ground.

    In the local market, the main competitors - Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and The Warehouse - are struggling as prices for imported items tumble.

    But The Reject Shop, with about 105 shops, is expanding.

    It will pay a fully franked interim dividend of 10¢ a share on March 23 to shareholders on the register at March 4. Shares yesterday ended up 19¢ at $3.05 after trading as high as $3.10.


    ____
    PS.
    Robbo: My share portfolio has finally started to recover from the losses incurred from UNW and AOE last year, thanks to your MAL pick!
    Currently holding SEN, SAI, MAL, TRS, UOS and HWW (sold ATR a while ago). Will be holding on to TRS, this is reasonably priced and has much room for growth and I intend to add more when the price falls.
    Respect
    TOMMY

    Disclosure: trading in and out of many stocks, too many to update the list at the moment...

    DO NOT TRUST ANYTHING I SAY OR IMPLY... USE YOUR OWN BRAIN AND RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

  3. #13
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    Howdee One Up,

    Err thru my Travels know some folk in Human Resopurces at TRS, and also some Purchasing People and Quality Assurance middle/ middle upper mgt folk; at The Warehouse Group...., and through another mate, ie: second hand..... some Store Mgers and Area Mgers......at Millers...

    and the one's at Warehouse and Millers all "off the record" reckon The Reject is the One to beat...

    IMO....

    from a Marketing point of view;

    In Australia at least; the feeling is,...... That TRS is the only one, with genuine Brand Recognition... ie: you could say to someone, "I'll meet you outside the TRS in/at Westfields" whereas the average aussie would not have a Clue what the Colour Scheme or Brand of The Ware house group looks like or could not find or identify with....

    Millers have been intimidated, distracted to point of insanity by Wareouse, and been totally SUCKED IN....* stupidly allowed themselves to be engaged in an open Price War with Warehouse Grp; which TRS have neatly/deftly.... side-stepped and disengaed themselves from exercize in futility....and disregarded leaving the other two to Hit each other mercilessly and to point of brain dameage...BIT silly really!!!!...esp. in the Space in which they operate which has consequently been a bit of a suicidal self fulfilling prophesy for Millers from what I can vaguely seem to ascertain....of course only ...IMO....

    The Folk I know in Sydney, who work at Warehouse say..." off the record".... their company(Warehouse) is known in New Zealand mainly for selling Toilet Paper as their best Drawcard..!! //...and...only real category killer. ie: apparently Main line over there in New Zealand the Toilet Paper angle seems to work for them apparently....and strategically THEY (Warehouse)think that will ALSO work in Sydney... [:0][:0][:0] []....WRONG !! and beyond Dunny paper; Warehouse Group has not ever seemed to get beyonD that sort of perspective AND Retail dimension really.......


    They (Warehouse Mgt I speak to....)also have serious reservations about their new CEO who they say plays the TOUGH guy...seventies style take no prisioners B ull Sh it // sort of immature Bully boy rule by fear, my way or highway boriong yardee yardee yardee routine...

    but is not real clever or lateral, smart or Understanding in the slightest, has no clue on the demographics & dynamics....let alone Retail...esp. of 21st century Retail, basically they all reckon he is a total D ick H ead (might be best to go back to that place called Auland, which they reckon is Sydney for real beginners !! [:0][:0]).....and Warehouse CEO being new; has no cultural comapany memory etc....(after the last 4 who left in succession).....so I guess; One Up; that Warehouse not being able to think outside the square..of toilet paper that is.... sort of really does says it all......

    Kind regards,

    Robbo


    [quote]quote:Originally posted by OneUp

    quote:Originally posted by davidrob
    And comparisons with Millers and The Warehouse Shop; are, for a host of reasons, are --IMO-- quite misguided and erroneous...
    G'dday Robbo still curious as to what you meant by that - in their prospectus TRS lists Millers and The Warehouse as their main competitors. Always a good sign when the competition is looking sick while TRS is issuing profit upgrades (and a very conservative one at that with lots of assumed adverse events - should beat it for the full year).

    Still, I hope to see a retrace to the low $3.05-3.10 region. I'm not prepared to chase it at the levels we saw today.
    </blockquot
    Robbo

  4. #14
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    Thanks for your thoughtful analysis of The Warehouse vs TRS Robbo (reminds me I need to go top up on dunny paper from my local red shed).

    The comments from 2 months ago that it was not wise to chase it at the $3.40 level have proved well founded. I think it speaks volumes about market sentiment when a little ripper of a company like TRS that's done everything right and is trading at a valuation that suggests it's errr, rejected. Then again, this sell off presents an outstanding buying.

    A reject and proud.

  5. #15
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    Last weeks 261 is a long way of its 340 not that long ago isn't it

    Some 23% of market cap gone is lot of negative sentiment to retailers, small caps and the market in general

    Not in at the moment but one to definitely keep a close watch on

    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #16
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    I recall a comment from the company that it is virtually "recession proof". Apparently not "financial market panic proof" though. Down to $2.58 today.

  7. #17
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    Being accumulated by Buffet-style investment group Clime Capital CAM.
    Clime has an interesting website which is worth a look: www.clime.com.au
    Best wishes, Newz

  8. #18
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    Hi all Rejectors,

    TRS gets mentioned in Sun Herald, check it out:

    http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,1...48-462,00.html

    ______________

    Bargains for the picking
    By Anthony Black
    April 24, 2005
    From: Sunday Herald Sun


    THE sharemarket's fall from favour has opened the door for bargain hunters, analysts say.
    Investors should look to buy profitable companies that have been oversold or are under-valued, they say.

    More than $56 billion has been stripped off the value of shares in the past month.

    Spooking investors are higher interest rates on the horizon of a slowing economy, marginally weaker commodity prices and negative sentiment about the outlook for the US economy.

    The All Ordinaries Index was up 20.9 points on Friday finishing at 4009.6 points.

    But that is down 246.2 points, or 5.8 per cent, from its March 21 peak of 4255.8.

    Sharemarket analyst Michael Heffernan, of F.W. Holst, said The Reject Shop and JB Hi-Fi offered investors good value as they were 24.4 and 20.7 per cent respectively off year highs.

    "The Reject Shop is somewhat recession-proof because of what they sell $150; cheap products," he said.


    "And JB Hi-Fi's proven business model could withstand a slower economy. You would just about need a recession before consumers stopped buying plasma TVs and home theatre components. The economy might come off a bit, but I don't see a recession on the horizon.

    "The economy is still in good shape, with relatively low inflation and interest rates. Employment numbers remain strong."

    Mr Heffernan said global mining giant BHP Billiton offered value at $2.45 off its year high of $19.50.

    "BHP Billiton almost has its profits locked in for the next year," he said.

    "What I like about BHP Billiton, JB H-Fi and The Reject Shop is they are strong businesses backed by solid sharemarket fundamentals. Their share prices have been shaved, so they offer good value.

    "The sharemarket always overshoots $150; on the way up, and down. It is an inherent characteristic of the market.

    "So when the market starts falling, some good stocks are oversold and that provides an opportunity."

    Sharemarket analyst Mike Kendall, of Goldman Sachs JBWere, likes the value in BHP Billiton, too.

    "Twenty-five per cent of BHP's earnings are derived from petroleum," he said. "High oil prices will be with us at least until the end of the year.

    "A lot of commodities that BHP digs out of the ground, such as iron ore and copper, are sold on a 12 month contract basis.

    So they have locked in a good profit stream."

    Mr Kendall said gold producer Newcrest Mining looked cheap when compared with US peers

    "Newcrest's Telfer gold mine is world class," he said. "The outlook for gold is strong on the back of a weaker US dollar."

    Mr Kendall said recent market volatility would continue, and investors could not expect big price increases in the short term.

    "The market will rise and fall until there is more certainty about global and domestic growth and the future direction of inflation and interest rates," he said.

    "But recent share price falls do provide investors with an opportunity to pick up a bargain. Investors who buy companies with strong balance sheets should be rewarded over the longer term.

    A strong balance sheet has low borrowings and good cash flows."

    Mr Kendall said Coca-Cola Amatil was a good buy.

    "While the SPC acquisition may take some time to digest, the soft-drink bottler has the ready-made infrastructure to penetrate the Australian and Asian markets with healthy fruit and juice products," he said.

    "And it's almost a $1 a share off its year high."

    Respect
    TOMMY

    Disclosure: trading in and out of many stocks, too many to update the list at the moment...

    DO NOT TRUST ANYTHING I SAY OR IMPLY... USE YOUR OWN BRAIN AND RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

  9. #19
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    The Reject Shop TRS
    Interesting Post Script you raise there on the MAL-content site there Tommy....re: TRS

    Of course, it does seem, that what is NOW occuring for TRS is that almost all discretionay consumer goods//Consumer discretionary//and Retail style primarilly Domestically exposed to only the Local Aussie Economy: these style of domstic listed Retailish companies have had a bit of the guts kicked out of them by the Markets.... coz of general negative sentiment that consumer Debt levels are more than a tad too high, fears of rising interest rates (just luuuve that word FEAR !!)...

    So the Net Result ????

    ...IMO.... is that TRS gets lumped in with Colorado (CDO) , GUD, Just Jeans(JST), JB HI Fi (JBH), Austin Group (ATG), David Jones (DJS), Millers, The Warehouse Group (TWG), Brazin, Strathfield (SRA), Fantastic Furniture (FAN) Harvey Norman (HVN), Nick Scali, etc etc...as this particular now out of favour/sentiment as Sector Investors herd like generalize and Dump the overall Sector taking TRS out with the rest of The Laundry.....

    So what to do for us Share Investors though ??

    Actually I'm now a bit Sorry I forgot to post on this theme; about TRS topic towards.... about end of February when I sold out most of my TRS Holding, exactly coz of this Sector Sentiment Change....

    and now Tommy you do raise the interetsting quetion: should we go stumbling back in....????

    So we need to weigh up the "Trend is your friend", "beware of attempting to catch falling knives", and "do not fight the weight of the Market", and "how low will it go" truisms VERSUS...being Contrary....and buying Good quality straw hats in Winter....

    One thing I will say, TRS is a very GOOD Straw Hat...one of the best value propositions in the Biz...IMO...and in some ways should...be perceiveed as a Value Defensive Stock, coz of their special niche//space in the market...but what Robbo says "should" means zero crackers.... coz: "it don't mean a thing;" if The Market says; "It aint got that swing...." ---at least in the short term !! [8D]

    However; IMO.... the Balance Sheet fundamentals of TRS are truly excellent by any measure:....at least on my read of the numbers...very very sound indeed --- IMO...---- , and good intrinsic value....(will it get even better Value ???)

    So as one of the Sharetraders/ subscribers on this Site on another thread recently wrote;

    "..... maybe we need to keep our gun powder dry UNTIL we can see the whites of their eyes...."

    ie: Cash is KING and will continue to be so with stocks like this potentially (ie: TRS) until the next financial Report comes out...or just before...if you can work out the numbers....

    So MY Macro Overall Thought on The Broad Theme is as Follows:

    ...&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;.... Overall Stock Market at present seems to be saying now..IMO...: that being exposed to The Global Energy (Oil, Uranium, Gas)/.... and....the High Demand Metals/Commodites: (Copper, Nickel, Iron Ore, Gold, Plutonium, Zircon)...as long as you can put up with the various Worry Warts//Media occasional fear mongering, from week to week and see the Macro Structural Period over the next 7 -13 months....

    For Me: those " 'ol fundamental Massive Tsunami forces of Supply and Demand and the basic economic concept of Scarcity...and the flow on of High high Net Profit Margins....are the best Hedge...... and look towards where their will be the MOST massive sustainable genuine structural deep rooted Demand coming from at least a billion People wanting//needing something; that is in r
    Robbo

  10. #20
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    Feb 21:
    quote:
    One of my real TRS is one of my TRUE faves....and my Research tells me, that things are quite definitely on The UP and the UP....for TRS...for a multitude of reasons...haven't quite got time to elaborate right now.....

    TRS do have demonstrated Great skill in Stock Inventory turnover AND with these Guys, their Store Branding is First Class---IMO....their Store Offering is a class act and their focussed......and much more Goodies besides..

    Great Going heh...

    Keep Holding TRS..of course only IMO....do your research etc etc.... !!

    Kind Regards Tommy and all other Rejectors...

    Happilly rejected Robbo
    25 April:

    quote:
    about end of February when I sold out most of my TRS Holding
    Naturally there are no firm obligations, but I think it would have been a good call to mention you had sold back in Feb, seeing as it was so soon after giving such a glowing endorsement of TRS's prospects.

    But back to the company, even if we see some weakness leading into June, the numers in August should sort it out. Though any softening will have some effect on TRS, it will surely be less than on other retailers. In fact, in hard times we may find TRS benefit. Just like with the Warehouse.NZ, in recessions people may give up their brand name products and their big ticket purchases, but the absolute amount of consumption, especially on staples, is pretty inelastic.

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