Question for a TA purist about where to trade?

[zyreon]

if you're gunna paper trade find a partner to email your theoretical trades to.

when somebody else is looking at your trades you can't then go and ignore the losers or fudge the numbers. It makes you accountable and adds an element of psychological pressure, which although pales in comparrison to the pressures of actual trading will serve to uncover any skeletons in the closet of your mind...

[Phaedrus]

Rotsevni,
I do not feel competent to advise you (or anyone else) on international tax matters. You need to seek advice from a proficient accountant. There should be no restrictions on how much US trading you can do - is that why he is your EX broker?!

The most important feature of the US market is the extreme volatility. It is nothing for a stock to rise (or fall) 10% - 20% "overnight". I have always assumed that this is due to the high levels of "Short" trading there. All movements are exaggerated. Get yourself caught in a "Short squeeze" and you can lose a lot of money very quickly indeed.

Generally speaking, the higher the volume, the better TA works. I am not sure how experienced or knowledgable you are, but in many ways, the Australian market is a nice compromise. Lots of different stocks with adequate volume without too much volatility. I would recommend that you start there.

This may be a rude question, but do you have a system? One that you know works? Is it written down? Have you back-tested it? Have you paper traded it? That's 5 rude questions I guess!

It is quite true that you can "learn by doing", but such lessons tend to be very expensive tuition.

[zyreon]

they're not rude questions they're -important- questions and if you're offended by them then you will lose money because you don't know what you're doing (this i can say by looking at my initial haphazard months of trading as i attempt to evolve from a fumbling amateur to an advanced beginner)

you have to be very honest and realistic with yourself, trading is no place for games of self delusion

enough talk - how can you apply my assertion in a meanginful way, use a diary, the extent to which you use your diary will be a good predictor of your success. Why? because it is easy to selectively forget or dust over important information e.g. entering a trade because of boredom rather than a high probability situation

[kittydashwood]

All markets offer long, medium and short term opportunities. Volitility of the US markets creates great buying opportunities for the the long hold if the trend stays intact. And believe it or not there are some US and international stocks that offer dividends that rival the NZ market. ( MSK runs at 9% and sells more corn chips than any other company in the Americas)

Stateside I use Schwab, 19.95 per trade if using the full service or 9 per trade if using the coach class internet service. However Schwab's strength is their research and the analysis, stock screeners are pretty common but the screeners on Schwab are superb.

"2. You said "Make certain that you are well and truly competent before tackling the US market. They play hard-ball - it is a tough market that eats little boys for breakfast. Do it right, and you will make more money faster there than anywhere else. Do it wrong and you will lose money so fast it will make your head spin".
I understand this on a business level but not on a TA level.
Are you saying that the US market is more prone to false signals, undetectable insider activity, manipulation of SP by large traders or is prone to sudden unpredictable price movements... or what exactly? "

In a word Yes sometimes so much static is generated by market makers that the TA is not only useless it's downright misleading. Fund managers have rooms of TA folk watching the same signals you are watching and many times they help cultivate and create trends to enable smart money and insiders with deep pockets to act on hidden agendas. Also I recall P on another thread mentioning OBV is useless for the Nasdaq, as the trades are counted twice.

Maybe even think about emerging economy etf's Last two years Australia, NZ, Mexico and Austria have outperformed very well. so... where's the next sweet spot globally, India? China? Chile? Brazil? Agrentina?

Not really one for SPY or DIA or IWM or DVY reflecting the index never beats it so a hedge is always best in cash.

This year make mine 20% not just for capitial preservation but to take advantage of opportunities.

Remember it's election year in NZ so things could stagger to a stasis until the picture is clearer in August.

As mister P points out volume is crucial to accurate TA although big gains can be made from illiquid stocks, if you have the patience.[|)]

[bull....]

Rotsevni , Agree with others America offers the best trading oportunities by far mainly due to very liquid markets and nice volatility to trade in and out with ease.
Brokers rates are great as are the platforms they provide my trades are executed in less than 1 sec which is a necessity for good trading as slippage will kill your account as will a high brokerage.
I find all brokerage offers in nz pale in comparison guess we put it down to being a small market.
Trade based purely on T/A, works fine as long as you can read thru the whipsaws as P says you wont last long trading in this market if you dont know what your doing personally have made 10s of 000 in minutes only to lose it all the next day + interest in other words you need balls of steal to trade the us but it can be done based purely on T/A and you can make money very quickly if your right.
I only Trade futures by the way in the US.

[rotsevni]

Thanks again for your collective wisdom. Pretty much confirms most of what I am doing and encourages me to do it more rigorously. With regard to back-testing, I could do this more rigorously if I had some software with years of data, as I am presently using free data from sources like fat prophets. I mostly need each days close price and volume going back about 10 years. I am only working on NZX for now, but ASX will be next. Any advice? If I have to buy software to do this, I'd like to be able to customise it later on to optimise my own oscillators, trendline-generation etc by back-checking. I'm not averse to spending money on good software, but just want to start with the right one so I'm not changing systems in 6 months time. Thanks in advance.

[ruethewhirl]

For someone who knows next to nothing about the US markets,
anyone recommend a universe of stocks to look at in the US?

I watch the ASX200 in Aus, and any other stocks hinted at in
forums. 200 is about right for me!

Just help to narrow things down a bit.

[kittydashwood]

SIRI - Sirius satilite radio is being installed in in many makes of new cars here.
Very widely followed on the Nasdaq, recently displayed an inverted head and shoulders when closing at 6.50.

Recent quater failed to make expectations, wider loss per share HOWEVER subscription rates have decreased and only competition are XM - stailite radio.
Ready for a big move pon Monday. If you can get some for 5.90 -6.15 should be good for 25%

[zyreon]

http://screen.finance.yahoo.com/newscreener.html

you could use the screener to come up with a short list or use the standard pick a sector method and go with the top 1 or 2 of that sector

[ruethewhirl]

Thanks Z, I'll check it out.