Underweight/Overweight?

[Halebop]

Interesting article. The conspiracy theorist in me almost smells smoke...

[Halebop]

I'm all in cash again, near 100% $A. Returns in the last financial year were almost 35% net of tax, 100% from trading and interest.

There is still plenty of boomer money floating around. I think markets can support at least one more major secular push like the last 3 years but they probably need a breather first. Certainly seems to be a lot of fatigue showing in employment numbers, retail sales, manufacturing and some hawkish responses from reserve bankers. We need a quiet 12 months or a decent correction to push things on again (prefer correction please Investment gods!)

[kittydashwood]

Slow move to cash since the begining of APRIL.
Now 75% cash. 19% after tax and brokerage.
Sold 100% tech and material sector holdings.
Still holding some media (DISCA, PAE, DIS)
some energy (DO PCZ IO, HAWK, BP, PPP & AWE)
Continue to hold Chilean stocks as the rest of South America
descends into turmoil it could prove a safe haven.

QQQQ below 40$ IS BEARISH for the tech sector.
Silver below 12$ Would be very bearish for materials.
Thinking about buying the VIX tracker.

Have changed tatics to trade j hook pattern on morning sell offs of favourite stocks.

[kittydashwood]

ouch daytrading only in this envirnoment, swing trading sucks with this selling.

[Halebop]

Cash sucks too but its easier on the mind.

[kittydashwood]

Yeah dead boring.
Now 7% nz dollars or 4.5% in australian dollars?

[Halebop]

99 point something Australian. So rarely find anything on the NZX worth buying almost given up trying.

[kittydashwood]

Minyanville's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

Rabbit Rabbit

1. We're Worried About Japan

Here's a question: the Bank of Japan was helpless to stop deflation as the economy spiraled downward, so why is it that we have so much faith that the Bank of Japan will be able to manage the "recovery" with hair trigger precision?

* The BOJ pumped a total of 2 trillion yen into the money market on Monday and Tuesday of this week to stop a sharp rise in the uncollateralized overnight call rate.
* The central bank has said it wants to keep the overnight call rate below the 0.1 percent discount rate as it tries to drain excess reserves, all of which is a prelude to eventually raising overnight rates.
* Essentially, the BoJ is looking to mop up the excess liquidity it created through the quantitative easing policy.
* The current account balance, which was used for liquidity targets under the policy, has been cut by nearly a third since reaching a peak of 30-35 trillion yen.
* It now stands at 14 trillion yen, up from 12.4 trillion yen last Friday.
* Meanwhile, this all comes at a cost - a steep cost. Japan's public debt is 150 percent of GDP.
* Some people who supposedly know about such things (Ben Bernanke) have noted that Fed studies of the Japanese experience with deflation show that it was almost entirely unexpected.
* Japan spent more than a decade mired in systemic deflation. As Bernanke noted in his 2002 "helicopter speech" linked above, in addition to deflation Japan's economy also faced barriers to growth (financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors and massive government debt) that are still existent today.
* Of course, Bernanke is a believer in the tools of his trade, naturally, so his view is that political constraints more than central bank policy options caused the deflation to linger for so long.
* Either way, the economic recovery in Japan, which is linked to liquidity flowing to India, China and even the U.S., seems to us to be considered something of a foregone conclusion by market participants while the actions of the BoJ suggest that conclusion is quite premature.



2. Californians Worried About a Housing Bubble

If you live in California, and there's a good chance you do since it is a big, fun state with the largest population in the country, then you are worried about a "housing bubble" ... at least according to Google "Trends."

* Google Trends is a beta version of a service that tracks broad search trends and patterns.
* If you type in "housing bubble" for example, as I did, then you can see a chart that shows the search volume as well as the cities from which those searches originated.
* The chart below shows a definite spike in the search for "housing bubble" since April.
* Also, note that the top cities searching for the phrase "housing bubble" are all in California.
* To be frank, we believe Google Trends is an amazing tool with many applications for financial markets, but we have no idea what those applications are.

3. Ford Worried About Selling Cars

Ford, worried about selling cars, beats consumers to the punch and decides to just give them away.

*
Ford just can't give cars away.
*
No, wait, looks like they can... also gas!
* Ford announced that it is going head-to-head with GM's risky gas derivatives scheme by slashing interest rates on nearly all of its 2006 models AND giving away a prepaid debit card worth up to $1,000 in gas.
* Meanwhile, according to the Associated Press, Expedition sales fell 24% in the first four months of this year compared with the same period in 2005, while Explorer sales were down 30%.
* Both Ford and GM have in recent years earned their largest "profits" from sales of SUVs.

4. OPEC Worried About Spending All That Depreciating Money!

OPEC ministers say they're not concerned that high oil prices pose a risk to the global economy, but they are worried about spending their i

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

Yeah dead boring.
Now 7% nz dollars or 4.5% in australian dollars?

So you would agree with this jokers views .... wait until October


http://www2.shawstockbroking.com.au/egoli/egoliTheMugPunterPage.asp?PageID={0885BE52-4CFA-4C98-B891-449EBC217115}

[Halebop]

I agree with the "Sell in May and Go away" maxim, although I'd do it a bit sooner than May. In Australia at least the financial year end has a big influence on tax loss candidates and in a generally falling market I think even winners can cop it as investors use other losses as an immediate tax offset.

Not sure about his prognosis about October being a down month. Despite some famous corrections occuring in October can remember seeing data that showed October rose more often than fell (but that might have been NYSE data - can't really remember).

The Christmas seasonal thing is almost counter intuitive because I'd expect large numbers of buyers and sellers to be absent from the market. Put it down to:

Retail / Distribution sectors confirm trade for their biggest season of the year AND they themselves have money to burn at this time

Many seasonal non retail businesses get over the worst of their cash flow humps by October so owners have money to spare for investing

...and maybe even return from holiday mood euphoria before the credit card bills arrive.