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China's Iron-Ore Imports Will Grow 15% This Year, SSY Says
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese imports of iron ore for use in steelmaking will expand by 15 percent in 2005 as China increases steel output, shipbroker Simpson Spence & Young said.
Iron ore imports will rise to 240 million tons as the world's fastest growing economy starts new steel mills, SSY told a meeting held by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development today in Paris.
The iron ore mining industry will maintain its status as the leading growth area for the shipping industry, SSK said in an e-mailed report used as a presentation at today's conference.
Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Plc, the world's largest mining company, Rio de Janeiro-based Vale do Rio Doce and London- based Rio Tinto Plc will boost their iron ore mining capacity by more than 150 million tons a year in the next four years to meet higher demand from steelmakers, SSY said.
China's steelmakers will raise output of the metal used in washing machines and cars by 12 percent to 303 million tons this year, SSY said, and by a further 7 percent in 2006.
Steel demand growth in China may slow to an annual 7 percent to 8 percent this year and next, compared with as much as 25 percent a year between 2001 and 2004, SSY said.
Iron ore prices, which rose 19 percent last year, may increase 20 percent this year to $30 a ton, Morgan Stanley said in a Nov. 15 report. World Steel Dynamics said surging coking coal and iron ore prices will likely add $35 a ton to integrated steel mill costs next year.
Imports of coking coal, another ingredient in steelmaking, will grow as much as 20 million tons a year this year and next as China boosts its steelmaking capacity, SSY said.
To contact the reporter responsible for this story:
Matthew Craze in London at mcraze@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Stephen Farr at sfarr@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 13, 2005 12:44 EST
He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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In my opinion copper will remain at very high prices for some time
It has just broken through US $1.50 per pound and is in supply deficit
China has an insatiable thirst for it for such things as power stations , communications , housing , vehicles etc and this will continue for some years
Check out price and stock charts at www.kitco.com
Time is the great revealer
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If Commodities Beckon, Use Caution
Monday July 12, 2004 11:22 am ET
By Will Swarts, TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
If first-half trends continue over the next six months, this could be the year of commodities. Stocks have fared poorly, bonds worse, but commodity investors have seen gains from the rising prices of everything from oil to steel to meat.
So, if you're looking for a piece of the action, investment professionals say it's best to spread the risk throughout the futures markets, rather than betting big on soybean contracts and taking a beating in these fast-moving and often volatile markets.
Whether investors buy into mutual funds that invest in commodity baskets or commodity-related equities, or take on a bigger commitment with some of the closed-end partnerships that follow futures indices such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index, financial advisers warn that any move into these volatile markets requires a good deal of research to make sure you know what you own. Most funds that offer some type of commodity exposure are heavily weighted to the energy sector, which has been especially volatile over the last several months.
But once you know what you're buying, many investment professionals say a small allocation of 5% to 10% of your portfolio is a smart move.
"That would be the maximum allocation," says Jim Baer, managing member of Uhlmann Price Securities, which sells the Rogers International Raw Materials Fund, a limited investment partnership based on an index devised by the high-profile investor Jim Rogers, best known for his book Investment Biker.
"As far as your portfolio's concerned, this will give you a noncorrelated investment that normally works the opposite of stocks and bonds, and real estate," Baer says.
Lynn Russell, a mutual fund analyst at Morningstar, says most small investors get exposure to commodities through funds, either the (Nasdaq:PCRAX - News)Pimco Real Return fund or the (Nasdaq:QRAAX - News)Oppenheimer Real Asset fund, which invest in commodity indices, or in any of the 40 or so natural resources equity funds, which led the fund tracker's performance categories last year with an average return of 32%, well ahead of the S&P 500's 22.3% gain.
Russell says resource funds -- which take on commodities by investing in oil, timber, mining and agricultural companies, for example -- continue to outpace the S&P this year, but that buyers should know funds such as the (Nasdaq:VGENX - News)Vanguard Energy don't offer the same diversification as the direct commodity buys.
"It's not just that it's apples and oranges," she said. "Some are actually kumquats. Equities don't move in lockstep to the commodities themselves. The funds that invest in equities are going to move differently than the commodity funds do, and there is much more variability in how different types of equities behave."
She and others say the recent boom in commodities owes much to the rapid pace of development in large emerging markets, especially China and India. That opens an investor up to geopolitical risk, and that can mean wide price swings if a national economy slows. Combine that with the recent volatility of the oil market, and it's no surprise that Michael Kitces, a financial planner in Columbia, Md., urges caution, telling small investors to avoid any sort of individual futures contract.
"They're big markets and they move very quickly, and you can't possibly have more information about them than the people on the trading floor," he says. "By the time you hear the Florida orange crop is bad and orange juice futures are tanking, the price is already down. It's virtually impossible for you to make winning trades on information that others don't already have. You can't analyze commodities like stocks."
But investors who want to try their hand at timing those markets in some fashion can head for a quartet of funds offered by Maryland fund company Rydex, which allows rapid trading of its funds. The no-load funds that focus on exposure to co
He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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China - driving Global Raw Materials Growth
A presentation from BHP
http://www.abare.gov.au/china/presentations/Kirkby.pdf
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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Unloved, undervalued and underowned - (commodities)
Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market...2005/0124.html
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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Bloomberg News
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Copper Trades Near 16-Year High on China Demand, Weaker Dollar
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Copper traded near a 16-year high in London as China's expansion of its electricity network boosted demand and a weaker dollar made commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Copper futures topped $3,200 a metric ton for the second time since March 1989 and headed for the biggest weekly gain since mid- December. The metal has climbed 4 percent since Feb. 11 as Asian traders return to the market following a seven-day shutdown for the Lunar New Year holidays. Copper is used mostly to make electrical cables and wiring.
``China's insatiable need for more power will help keep the copper price bubbling,'' Gary Mead and Jessica Cross, analysts at U.K.-based consulting company Virtual Metals, said in a report published yesterday by Fortis Bank. Copper for delivery in three months may reach $3,500 a ton in the first half, they said.
The contract was up $33, or 1.1 percent, to $3,190 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 9:13 a.m. It earlier reached $3,215, or $5 short of yesterday's intraday peak. The metal has risen 1.3 percent this year after a 37 percent gain in 2004.
``Investment funds were the driving force behind the rise,'' Tobin Gorey, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said in a report today. ``A weaker euro-dollar did the market no harm.''
Dollar Slump
The dollar headed for its biggest weekly loss against the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan declined to signal an acceleration in interest-rate increases. Copper is denominated in dollars.
The U.S. currency is down 2.5 percent from a three-month high of $1.2732 per euro on Feb. 7. Greenspan yesterday told the House Financial Services Committee that U.S. interest rates are still ``fairly low'' after six quarter-point increases since June.
Demand for copper in China, the world's biggest user, will rise 8 percent this year to 3.7 million tons, more than a fifth of the global total, according to London-based GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd. The nation's imports may rise more than a third to 1.5 million tons. China is using about 55 percent of its copper in the energy sector, the Virtual Metals analysts said.
Power producers in China are adding capacity to supply an economy that expanded 9.5 percent last year, the fastest pace in eight years. China experienced power shortages in four major cities and 24 of 27 provinces last year.
Copper for April delivery, the most active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose 2.5 percent today to 30,860 yuan a ton.
Shrinking Gap
Global copper demand will exceed production by 172,000 tons this year, according to Merrill Lynch. The gap will shrink from 787,000 tons in 2004 after mining companies including Melbourne- based BHP Billiton and Phoenix-based Phelps Dodge Corp. boosted output, the bank's analysts said in a Feb. 14 report.
Copper consumers are making for lagging production by draining stockpiles. Inventory monitored by the LME has slid 87 percent since the start of last year to 55,800 tons.
Most other metals also rose on the LME. Lead had the biggest gain, rising $29, or 3.2 percent, to $948 a ton, close to a six- week high. Nickel rose $250, or 1.6 percent, to $15,500 and tin climbed $90, or 1.1 percent, to $8,050. Zinc was unchanged at $1,361 and aluminum fell $6 to $1,903.
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He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)
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Mick100
I have been very bullish on copper forat least a year and have leaned towards buying gold shares that are backed up by other minerals , especially copper or silver , on the basis that it is better to have more than one string in your bow
If you take a look at the copper charts on the Kitco site it is pretty obvious thgat copper will trade at a considerable premium for quite some time ;
was approx 80c up to about 18 months ago
now $1.50 plus , 16 year highs
in supply deficit
stocks continually reducing
huge demand , especially from China
etc , etc
So I cant see any settling back in the price for some considerable time
And if it was profitable to produce copper when it was 80c what does that make it now ? !!!
Yes , there is money to be made --- I am in no doubt about that
Time is the great revealer
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