STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[SailorRob]

Yep fair points. Well done to everyone.

I've sold half and using proceeds to buy Sberbank at a PE of 5 directly on the Moscow exchange. Incredible bank, trading at book with ROE of 20% and very strong earnings growth.

[Rawz]

Yep fair points. Well done to everyone.

I've sold half and using proceeds to buy Sberbank at a PE of 5 directly on the Moscow exchange. Incredible bank, trading at book with ROE of 20% and very strong earnings growth.

SailorRob you have made some good calls! Nobody can deny that.

Not sure I’ll be following you into a Russian bank thou lol. Old Putin has his sights set on more Ukrainian land and if he goes for it the US will be slapping them with severe sanctions. Likely crushing financial system sanctions. But I’m sure I don’t need to be telling you this. Good luck

[RRR]

All the best SailorRob - your analysis and knowledge shared of STU was excellent.

[bobestm]

Yep fair points. Well done to everyone.

I've sold half and using proceeds to buy Sberbank at a PE of 5 directly on the Moscow exchange. Incredible bank, trading at book with ROE of 20% and very strong earnings growth.

How does one trade on the Moscow exchange, IBKR?

[nztx]

How does one trade on the Moscow exchange, IBKR?

Roubly carefully I would say

Wouldn't want things to be too obvious or noisy or you could get significantly roubled
from any number of different directions ..

Having a Rushin Mrs may help things (one in no hurry to scarper back off home)

[Muse]

Wonder if the analysts will just regurgitate the press release in their reports overnight, update their TP to reflect where prices closed at, and close at a mighty 2-3 page report.

okay folks have the first STU report to hand - this one from Jarden. STU closed at 1.46 yesterday, and jarden have updated their TP to, wait for it....to 1.46! Haha. Few bits and bobs:

* estimate gross margin expanded to 22.8% from 20.5%, largely reflecting STUs accounting for COGS (average pricing) which provides margin uplift in rising price environment
* Jard expect moderation in pricing and reversion over time
* STU investing hard into inventory to support revenue growth. They noted management stating it had used its cash position to invest in high demand inventory and a portion of increased inventory also simply reflects higher prices. Thus, Jarden expect cash balances to fall and end the year with less cash
* EBIT: 38.5 > 33.5 > 29.6 > 31.4 > 33.2 > 35 > 37, for FY22-FY28
* NPAT: 24m this year, falling and never recovering by FY28
* Jarden stated if further evidence of sustained earnings growth with respect to GM improvement would see them take a more constructive view

[winner69]

Jarden are much respected by many on here ....maybe the best .....suppose until one disagrees with them

[Rawz]

Big difference to the $50m ebit talked about here yesterday. Huge difference actually

[Muse]

Big difference to the $50m ebit talked about here yesterday. Huge difference actually

truth somewhere in the middle, i reckon. Would be nice to see them doing channel checks, supplier calls, to firm up. The way I am reading analysts is that they are willing to be dragged up after the fact, not before, given the recent history of the company. They make some good points on what will happen to cash and hard to argue the company wont be impact by steel price reversion over time.

The PE's are most different to that being talked about or extrapolated off 1H. IE they forecast 10 >12 >13.7 from FY22 to FY24, but anchored to their forecasts. Their net yields remain healthy 7%, 5.9%, 5.1% same periods.

[Shareguy]

Forbar have increased to tp to $1.75 on a pe of 8. Ebit 22 $46.8 EPS 18.4 Div of 10 percent gross

Have a look at the listing multiples of Vulcan and compare the same to Stu (which were done on previous posts) It’s huge. Which is why I see this as a real value stock.

These analysts in my opinion don’t understand the company or what’s happening with the market with increased costs and inflation and the cost out over the last few years.