STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[Beagle]

We'll be OK ..... things in the steel market are going so well at the moment it's hard to imagine that even STU management could stuff things up ..... but you never know so keep a close eye of those squiggly and MA lines on the chart.

You're on to it mate. I have learned from bitter experience, (AIR), that with cyclical companies its best to dance very close to the door

[winner69]

You're on to it mate. I have learned from bitter experience, (AIR), that with cyclical companies its best to dance very close to the door

I have hope that STU at current price has a degree of safety (for a while)

If priced on same EBITDA multiple as Vulcan STU would be about $2.70 but STU being STU we need to discount that. Like :

Less 15% because Vulcan is listed on ASx and has insto support over there
Less 20% because of doubt over STU management ever really getting their act together and delivering as they should

That gives a fair 'risk adjusted' price of about $2.00 ....so we have a bit of a margin of safety eh ....but watch the squiggly line on the chart closely

Be good if it ever got to 2 bucks ... almost a double bagger

[Shareguy]

$2.50 easily achievable. When the market realises the multiples Vulcan listed at and trades at compared to STU the ride upwards will continue. And if that does not get you salivating have a look at the PE.

It’s all about timing and the time for STU to shine is NOW.

[winner69]

$2.50 easily achievable. When the market realises the multiples Vulcan listed at and trades at compared to STU the ride upwards will continue. And if that does not get you salivating have a look at the PE.

It’s all about timing and the time for STU to shine is NOW.

PE -- on a proforma tax adjusted basis about 7 times F22 earnings

and Vulcan on about 14

Easy to see why you salivating shareguy

But instead of just letting things happen management have to perform ..... hope they do

[winner69]

Share price up 66% in 2021 so do dog eh

Even better than mighty FBU which was only up 23%

Maybe 2022 is the year of the dogs ..... Metro was down 10% in 2021

[Shareguy]

Yes agree winner69 it’s no dog now. How many other shares on the NZX trade on a low pe like that. I’m so overweight STU and have been building up for some time. I’m normally very careful to have some sort of balance. However there is very few opportunities and you have got to back yourself. I just find it very hard not to buy more when the future looks so bright and all the research I do just screams…….a Steel.

[winner69]

Yes agree winner69 it’s no dog now. How many other shares on the NZX trade on a low pe like that. I’m so overweight STU and have been building up for some time. I’m normally very careful to have some sort of balance. However there is very few opportunities and you have got to back yourself. I just find it very hard not to buy more when the future looks so bright and all the research I do just screams…….a Steel.

Best thing going for us is that there is little that can go wrong --- everything is going their way

Even STU's management couldn't stuff this up

[Shareguy]

I don’t think there is much chance of that ….but you never no.

All the people in the industry I have spoken to have said good things. I’m expecting another upgrade and suggest once the half year result is out that will re rate. Mark has done a great job of reducing expenses so when sales increase like this the result is going to be fantastic. It’s not the old Stu with heaps of debt, it’s a company thats cleaned out the closet of skeletons, plenty of cash at year end (.15 cps) and orders flowing through at great margins. Was a $5.00 stock and the longer it stays at these levels the more it is at risk of a takeover. Certainly the large discount STU trades at to Vulcan steel multiples is not warranted in my opinion. $2.00 is not far away.

[Beagle]

Best thing going for us is that there is little that can go wrong --- everything is going their way

Even STU's management couldn't stuff this up

What about if they get another takeover offer from FBU at $1.90

[winner69]

s. ..................

Was a $5.00 stock and the longer it stays at these levels the more it is at risk of a takeover. Certainly the large discount STU trades at Vulcan steel multiples is not warranted in my opinion. $2.00 is not far away.

The chart from the other day

We've broken that long long downtrend ..... after 26 years ............heading back to 5 bucks

Nice to part of making history