STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[percy]

I am expecting the stock level will reduce as worldwide logistics improve.

[bull....]

this interesting from vulcan release today

Rising interest rates and ongoing COVID-19 disruptions in some major markets are likely totemper global economic activity and demand for steel and metal products.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...489/377281.pdf

[winner69]

See STU got caught out exaggerating a bit in their announcements ---- 'quadrupled' was actually 'more than doubled'

And if they went back to the old annual reports they would have noticed that F22 profits weren't a 'record' - NPAT was slightly higher in 2006

[BlackPeter]

See STU got caught out exaggerating a bit in their announcements ---- 'quadrupled' was actually 'more than doubled'

And if they went back to the old annual reports they would have noticed that F22 profits weren't a 'record' - NPAT was slightly higher in 2006

Come on - 2006 nearly 2 decades ago! Not just world best in NZ but best result in 16 years .... Hey, this is more then even the amazing All Blacks can claim : Must be a record, then ...

[SailorRob]

Hi winner, true at the time because it represented value to shareholders when the stock was at much lower prices. But times change and it is more important to look at how it has been used today. The cash has been used to support a higher level of "unit" inventory, I make this point because inventory in a high inflation environment $cost is going to rise. While STU doesn't give us tonnage figure(could be useless without a bucket of inventory type to give it context) it makes a clear comment on how inventory has changed and how it is being managed. And I see higher inventory volumes in a net higher margin stock(higher margin for the capital either due to stock turn or pure product margin).

What I was worried about was the FCF was going to get eaten up by higher inventory(lazy use of capital by mgmt) but I am very happy that they have used debt(both core and trade facility) to do the heavy lifting. I was worried because I thought dividend may have been (in part) the sacrificial lamb. But I am very happy that the dividend policy was properly applied and we saw 71% payout ratio. Combined I like it because it shows clear application intent by board and management in their approach to shareholders.

Two more comments. 1. Price/trading etc. The absence of institution holders weighs on that. The retail holders are pretty saturated(ask a Tesla holder where the next stock buyer is coming from). But I think the smaller institutional holders must start reviewing this stock. Keep a look out for crossings(like the 500T yesterday) to show possible insto buying. 2. Inflation and inventory coming down as inflation wanes. I do not either is going to happen in the way some think. Inflation is not been driven by demand, it is all(almost) supply driven. I do not think it is purely COVID related but a stronger macro theme. I wrote an article I published last Nov on Linkedin. My article was supported by strong academic research published in the Journal of Economics Oxford and was focused on the 1700s(believe it or not) and industrial revolution - the introduction of commercial steam engines. Any one wants to read it PM me and I will tell you who I am if you do not know. That work would suggest a multi-decade higher inflation environment. All I have seen since supports my view.

You'll make a lot of money betting against the bond market if you're right. Wonder how the strong academics have performed investing using their theories in the actual markets.

I imagine the steam engine did a fair bit for supply.

[see weed]

13 div. and they saying 11.4% yld, I was thinking more like 8.5% yld. Might have to call STU the Sleeping Beauty. Some handsome Knight might give the steel lady a kiss and wake her up and see sp raise above $1.60. Philip Lennon gave the lady a wee peck on the cheek, but still she sleeps, but with a smile on her face. From such good results.

[ithaka]

13 div. and they saying 11.4% yld, I was thinking more like 8.5% yld.

*1 Based on share price of $1.27 as at 30 June 2022

[Snow Leopard]

See STU got caught out exaggerating a bit in their announcements ---- 'quadrupled' was actually 'more than doubled'

And if they went back to the old annual reports they would have noticed that F22 profits weren't a 'record' - NPAT was slightly higher in 2006

I nearly choked on my chocolate pie* over the frequent references to a company that they did not buy.

*recovering nicely with intravenous drip coffee.

[Dassets]

You'll make a lot of money betting against the bond market if you're right. Wonder how the strong academics have performed investing using their theories in the actual markets.

I imagine the steam engine did a fair bit for supply.

That "academic" was Earl Jefferson Hamilton (1899 – 7 May 1989). An American historian, one of the founders of economic history, PhD from Harvard, a professor at Duke, then Northwestern then Chicago. He was a leading global economist. I tracked his research down when I started suspected something was happening(not COVID) to the supply chain ie a new energy supply chain was being mandated and supercharged in pace of rollout(globally). As an aside the expectation that electricity was going to get cheaper is totally bogus. I was working on assessing then championing a re-power of a wind farm.

BTW the market has been wrong on big things before. But I would rate the magnitude what is happening now at big x $1 MILLION DOLLARS!(Dr Evil-style)

[SailorRob]

Yes of course the market is wrong all the time but trying to make money on any macro predictions is a fools errand let alone speculating on a paradaigm shift in energy imposed by government, not market forces and based around reaserch such as you're talking is crazy. I don't mean to cause offence, just speaking my mind and reality.