STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[bull....]

Morningstar has STU div yld at 9.03% at $1.44c per share. My av price was $1.328, But I was a Johny come lately, we can't complain about the yld, still heaps better than bank. Normally I would be selling down now but not in too much of a hurry with such a good yld. Looking around town, building going on everywhere, and there could be a bit of growth still left in the old steely tube

yea im in no hurry to sell. 12 mths of solid growth ahead + some aquisitions to come. 2024 mght see some slowdown but to what extent who knows for sure yet

[bull....]

'Buying a cyclical after several years of good earnings & when the dividend yield has hit a high point is a proven method for losing half your money in a short period of time' - Peter Lynch.

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

[SailorRob]

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

Rubbish, just look at sea weeds earlier post and the 10 year graph. It's that easy.

[percy]

That is right. If you look at the 10 year graph, we are halfway through the up cycle and heading towards the $2 to $3 mark.

Still some good mileage and big divies ahead.
We remain "well positioned."

[bull....]

Rubbish, just look at sea weeds earlier post and the 10 year graph. It's that easy.

steel an tube been badly managed for nearly 20 years if your looking at a chart. 4.50 to 50c says it all. i dont need to forecast a price to understand that malpass management will determine if it gets back to highs.
i worked with malpass years ago and know his style so things are panning out as expected so far. the true test will be as they say making the company more resilient to a slowing in activity.

[SailorRob]

steel an tube been badly managed for nearly 20 years if your looking at a chart. 4.50 to 50c says it all. i dont need to forecast a price to understand that malpass management will determine if it gets back to highs.
i worked with malpass years ago and know his style so things are panning out as expected so far. the true test will be as they say making the company more resilient to a slowing in activity.

I wonder if Malpass agrees with you. We could check how many STU shares he owns purchased with his own money and then relate that number to his salary and net worth.

[SailorRob]

but what price is the top ? forecasting is for muppets

So you're not forecasting Malpass ability to manage?

[bull....]

So you're not forecasting Malpass ability to manage?

bit hard not to forecast in any aspect of investing really isnt it. thats why i had to have a laugh over that oaktree article you posted from a guy who says he never forecasts lol but on one hand says we managed difficult environments well by adjusting our portfolio's to suit what was ahead. my muppet comment was just a bit of a stir

[bull....]

I wonder if Malpass agrees with you. We could check how many STU shares he owns purchased with his own money and then relate that number to his salary and net worth.

i like it when insiders buy shares in a company too. someone should have asked him at the results Q& A .

[SailorRob]

bit hard not to forecast in any aspect of investing really isnt it. thats why i had to have a laugh over that oaktree article you posted from a guy who says he never forecasts lol but on one hand says we managed difficult environments well by adjusting our portfolio's to suit what was ahead. my muppet comment was just a bit of a stir

Exactly. Forecasting macroeconomics is for muppets. Not businesses.

Best method of conservatively forecasting STU is long period of past performance, which puts intrinsic value at $1.50. Could do better but the money was made by anticipating they would return to the mean long term performance and purchasing in bulk between 50 and 80 cents. From here foreword is too unclear.